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Blank year in the Paris Bourse

A year or almost white. The Paris Bourse turns the page of 2010 a short distance (- 2.17%) from its level earlier this year. After the good 2009 vintage (22%), the 2010 is disappointing and turbulent. "2010 has been a bad year for the CAC 40 more than for equities," the economists note, however, the bank Leonardo. Part of the Paris stock exchange ended the year on a high note. Next 20 index which lists the candidates in the CAC 40 has jumped by 29.3% and the average values of 18.12%. These performance differences are partly explained by the CAC 40, in which certain values were more likely than others to the crisis of sovereign debt of countries in the euro area."The index in Paris was hampered by financial stocks exposed to sovereign risk through its European and overweight in oil companies and pharmaceuticals," say economists at the bank Leonardo.

Photo credits: Eric Piermont / AFP

The state is still struggling to control their expenditure

This is one of the leitmotifs of government: to bring its public deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013 to contain its debt, France must first reduce spending. Because the other option – massive tax increase – would kill growth. And then the level itself of high public spending (it absorbs 56.6% of national wealth) suggests some leeway.

To achieve its objective, the government has set rules, particularly on government spending, a priori more "controllable". Each year, the total expenditure of the State should not grow faster than inflation, while expenses, excluding charges, debt and retirement of civil servants must remain constant in euros. One way to keep the budgets of ministries whatever surprises on the burden of debt.

On paper, the proposed 2011 budget meets the road map.The state spending rose only 1.3% to 1.5% inflation. Excluding fees and expenses of debt and pensions remained stable at 274.8 billion euros. But in detail, the picture is less rosy. Because the state has always so difficult to control certain budgets.

In May, Francois Fillon announced that the operating expenses (expenses associated with the policies carried out mostly in the office) and non-staff operating costs were reduced 10% by 2013 and 5% in 2011. Yet in its report on the Finance Bill, Philippe Marini, the UMP rapporteur of the Budget in the Senate, said that the operating expenses will decrease by 1% next year, to 58.9 billion. At Bercy, it contends that "the effort should not be calculated from the 2010 level but compared to the natural drift of expenditure.In 2011, they will be 5% lower than they would without the measures taken by the government. " In fact, the executive decided real savings: it reduces the number of contracts and helped cut out the exemptions from payroll taxes (including employment at home). But it also has a subterfuge, by reallocating some costs to other agencies. The State "share" and the financing of vocational training with social agencies for 330 million …

Social benefits and wages of civil servants

Especially, the government did nothing to stop the drift of social benefits. Bercy had planned to curb the rise in the allowance for disabled adults and to prevent the accumulation of individual housing allowance (PLA) with a half-share of family quotient.But, faced with protests, these projects were abandoned.

More surprisingly, the state firm grasp its operating costs. Including its payroll, as pointed Gilles Carrez, the UMP rapporteur of the Budget to the Assembly in its report on the Finance Bill. Despite the non-replacement of retiring in two, staff costs excluding pensions will increase from 700 million in 2011 to $ 82.7 billion. The reason: fewer retirements and skidding all bonuses paid to employees. "But by 2012 the payroll decline", says it does at Bercy.

Furthermore, savings are low on operating expenses in the strict sense, despite the streamlining of procurement, information technology and other charges as part of the general revision of public policies. Next year will be lower than 2% (barely 200 million).Admittedly, 2011 was marked by exceptional operating expenses of $ 400 million, principally for the French presidency of the G20. But the State did not offset by additional cuts. Even if there's progress in ministries and parastatals if (Météo France, museums, etc..) Are better controlled, the state is still far less strict than a business.

That 2011 will change to our finances

Here is the list of spending items that will vary in early 2011.

Social benefits

SMIC: The government has warned that there would be no boost given to the minimum wage this year. The minimum wage will be adjusted according to the mechanisms provided by the Labour Code and will rise from 8.86 euros gross per hour at 9 euros. The 2.3 million people paid the minimum wage will now receive 1,365 euros for 35 hours, or about 1073 euros net per month.

RSA: The income beneficiaries of active solidarity, which have touched in December a Christmas bonus, will see their monthly income revalued by 1.5% (inflation in 2011). Their income will double to 466.99 euros for a single person, an increase of 6.90 euros to 700.49 euros and for a single person with a child or a couple without children.

Child benefit: They will also be adjusted from 1.5% to 125.78 euros per month for two children, an increase of 1.86 euro and 286.94 euros for three children (4, 24 euros).

Health

Doctors: Consultation with GPs from 22 euros to 23 euros.

Medications: Some drugs will be less well paid by Social Security. Those who were at 35% will no longer be only 30%.

Present.In tax incentives

Scrapping and environmental bonus: The scrapping of 500 euros – whose number is estimated at 600,000 in 2010 – will disappear. The payment of bonuses is also environmentally hardened. For cars ordered in 2011 emitting between 116 and 125 g / km CO2, the environmental bonus of 100 euros will be deleted. For vehicles that emit 96 to 115 g, from 500 euros to 400 euros.For vehicles 61 to 95 grams, it falls from 1,000 euros to 800 euros. The bonus of 2000 euros LPG is removed, it is hard for hybrids.

Employment at home: After long debates in the National Assembly and Senate, the measure abolishing the 15% deduction on employer contributions offered to individuals who employ an employee at home has finally been voted under pressure from the government.

Taxes: The highest band of income tax is raised from 40% to 41%. This measure aims to fund the pension reform for taxpayers who claim more than 69,783 euros per year guaranteed approval cash advance loans.

• Pending the great tax reform planned for the second half of 2011 and could sign by the end of the solidarity tax on wealth, the ISF reduction granted for the direct or indirect investment in a particular small business will be reduced from 75% to 50% in the limit of 45,000 euros.

• Despite the amendment advocated by the UMP deputy Herve Mariton, honeymooners, as well as civil partnerships or divorce of the year does not fill more than three tax returns. They may no longer qualify for the tax cut that allowed this practice sometimes.

• The tax loopholes supporting investments in real estate also suffering with a plane of 10%.The tax credit on equipment in support of sustainable development, tax reduction for certain overseas investments or investment Scellier (rental in nine) are particularly concerned.

• The entire device support accession is also consolidated. The tax credit on mortgage interest is deleted and a zero-interest loan universal set for first-time buyers. It will be granted unconditionally resources.

• As for the tax credit for photovoltaics, it is reduced by half.

Consumption and transport

SNCF: Train tickets should have an increase of 2 to 3% with effect from 15 January. The government had also expressed support for such an increase in early December.This rate increase should allow maintenance of the railway network.

Insurance: The tariff increases will be particularly important in the insurance sector. The price will incur an increase of 2.5% to 4.5% for cars, from 3% to nearly 8% for housing and 5.3% to 8.5% for health.

Energy: Increase by 3% due to the contribution to public service electricity (CSPE), which finances the purchase of renewable energy. The social tariff for electricity, provided to the poorest households (625,000 households), should vary between 40 and 60% against 30 to 50%. Gas rates should remain stable until April.

(With AFP)

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Russia: France managed to sell Mistral

After many twists, Russia chose France for the supply of its warships. A joint Russian and French presidencies, released Friday, says "that after the international tender launched on October 5 for the supply to the Russian Navy in two buildings Projection and Command (BPC) Russian authorities have accepted the offer by the consortium formed by French manufacturers DCNS and STX and Russian shipyards OSK.

The offer in question provides, "initially" the joint construction of two warships Mistral.The bilateral agreement should then be extended "by making two additional units," the statement said.

According to the Elysee, "the construction of PCBs represent Russia for the French industrial DCNS and STX equivalent of 5 million hours or 1,000 people for four years, mostly in Saint-Nazaire.

"An unprecedented cooperation"

After long blown hot and cold on this issue, Russia therefore accepts the French offer payday loans for bad credit. The situation, however, were tense between the two countries since the Russian government has decided to launch an international tender. Paris, who was in exclusive negotiations, it was offended.

But moving Francois Fillon in Russia earlier this month allowed the negotiations to progress."President Medvedev and President Sarkozy welcomed the implementation of this unprecedented cooperation that will benefit the industry and employment in both countries, and illustrates the willingness and ability of France and Russia to develop partnerships in all major areas, including defense and security, "concludes the Elysee today.

This sale may make some cringe Eastern countries but the U.S. authorities. In a diplomatic telegram released by Wikileaks, the United States have already discussed a sale "inappropriate."

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The Madness of cashmere pushed prices

There will soon enough goats in China to provide all the cashmere sweaters that need to pluck a few more each winter from Paris to New York or Tokyo. Formerly a rare symbol of luxury, this cozy area has democratized in recent years. It is found at a price between 50 and 100 euros in the pull chains of clothing or public retailers. Rigor found winters stimulates enthusiasm.

"We're going to sell 300,000 pieces this year, 30% more than last year, and we still expect growth of 30% next year, especially with new collections for children," says Michel Roulleau, Assistant Chief Galeries Lafayette.The brand is second in volume behind the French leader, the specialist Eric Bompard, which provides him to exceed the 500,000 sweat this year (about 65 million euros of turnover).

Bompard was a pioneer in the popularization of the product. Cashmere comes from more than 85% of Chinese Inner Mongolia. In the Gobi desert, extreme climatic variations, a breed of goats, Capra HISCA, develops long hair to silky down. Once a year, late spring, her belly and her neck and the hair is combed, having been treated with rice flour, is sold at auction in Guangzhou. There are twenty-five years, these valuable biquette were at most 15,000, according to Eric Bompard.This is nearly 70 million today!

Chinese quasi-monopoly

At the time, the Chinese were happy to export the raw feedstock in Scotland and Italy, where some brands expert knitting sweaters sold at a minimum the equivalent of 300 euros. The removal of import quotas for apparel in the mid-1980s allows an industrial to build in China. Eric Bompard joins a local partner, Erdos (which holds 20% stake), which allows him to divide the price by three. Several Chinese groups are organized on the vertical model, farming and weaving to the finished product. "China has developed a virtual world monopoly.The industrial integration has helped offset the high cost of raw material by low production costs, "explains Philippe Pasquier, director of lounge specializing in textiles First Vision.

It was there that everyone buys in a battle without thank you for finding good subcontractors, to adequate capacity. Because the boost in sales leads to tensions on supply, as also for other commodities."Demand is growing stronger and speculators bet on the effect of scarcity to raise prices," said Tancred of Lalun, purchasing manager mode in Spring, which provides already having to raise prices next year (between 95 and 130 euros a sweater right now).

"This year we have not had a problem, but demand is soaring and we have already had to buy in advance of next spring shearing," says Michel Roulleau, Galeries Lafayette. All the experts suggest a rise in the material of at least 15% in 2011, which will be partly reflected in the published rates.

A tricky, while consumers had been accustomed lately to see them fall. Some stores will often sell cashmere without border as a loss leader. Galleries have made a splash this fall with a promotion to 39.90 euros."It's unhealthy," said Eric Bompard, who warns: "You should know that there are dozens of grades of cashmere, between which there may be as much difference between a Gevrey-Chambertin and wine table. "

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Indebtedness Germany sets record

With 50 billion in additional debt in 2010, Germany beat a sad record: the highest debt level since the founding of the Federal Republic in 1949. It now amounts to 1791 billion euros. The Ministry of Finance, who announced the figure on Monday was intended however positive in January, the Minister Wolfgang Schäuble provided in effect to borrow as much as 80 billion euros this year payday advance low fees.

Snow deprives 16,000 without power in France

Several departments of the northern half of the country are in blackout. Some 16,000 homes in the Eure, the Ardennes and the Oise were without electicity Sunday mid-afternoon, the snow has damaged the distribution network.

"It is very difficult to access the network due to thick snow. We could not take off the helicopters, "said Electricity Network France (ERDF). Homes without power are 6500 in Eure, 6000 and 3500 in the Ardennes in the Oise.In Lower Normandy, 4000 homes in the Orne and 800 in the north of the Cotentin, also affected by cuts in the day, have been restored to most.

Transportation: "return to normalcy is being done"

• ON THE ROAD

All day, abundant snowfall in the northern half of the country have made the difficult situation on the roads, trains and airports. But "it's going relatively well" and "return to normalcy is being done at airports and other modes of transport", said in late afternoon, the Minister of Transport, Nathalie Kosciusko- Morizet.

The beginnings of a thaw has lifted the ban on driving in the Ile-de-France for trucks, except on motorways A1 and A16 to the province.Yvelines, two convoys of armored vehicles and 4×4's army prepositioned at sensitive locations, have returned in the afternoon Satory military camp.

However, disappointment for Parisians: Lady Gaga concert, scheduled for Sunday evening at the Palais Omnisports de Paris Bercy, was canceled because some of the tour trucks were blocked by the prefectural.Two matches in Ligue 1, Lille and Lens-Nancy-Caen, have also been postponed indefinitely.

"More information at 0800 100 200, radio 107.7 FM and on the websites www.bison-fute.gouv.fr, www.sytadin.fr

• IN TRANSIT

For transport in the Paris region, the bus traffic resumed "progressively on routes from Paris, but the service is very slow on the commuter lines," according to RATP

• AT AIRPORTS

The big black point of the day was the Roissy-Charles-De-Gaulle airport, where only two of the four tracks have been used much of the day 25% of flights were canceled up to 16 hours, and 40% beyond.About 20,000 passengers waited in a quiet, resigned their aircraft in various airports, with an average delay of 2 hours for flights maintained.

Orly airport, south of Paris, was less disturbance with an average of 45 minutes late. Other passengers were trapped at the airport of Beauvais, Oise being particularly affected.

• THE SNCF

On the rail network, 6 Eurostar were canceled Sunday afternoon, 2 TGV to the south-east and two others will be on Monday on these channels.

Traffic is also completely stopped since Sunday 11:00 am between Paris and Caen. Finally, delays ranging from 30 minutes and 1Hh0 affected many trains.

"More information about http://www.infolignes.com/

• THE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY

Meteo Consult place until Sunday evening 24 departments on alert orange snow and ice.12 other departments have a significant risk of snow and ice. The interministerial crisis center was activated at the Ministry of Interior.

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Debts degraded markets stoic

A decision was taken Friday morning by the rating agency Moody's is violent: it has degraded the Irish debt rating five notches. That had not seen since the case of South Korea during the Asian crisis in late 1997. The Moody's decision on Ireland has not yet caused a tsunami in the markets. Strange, given that last spring the agencies were accused of feeding the panic of investors towards the countries of Europe as sick Greece.

This Friday, the thermometer of risk perceived by the markets, that is to say interest rates have just shuddered. Those 10 years on the Irish debt took only 30 points, that is to say 0.3 percentage points, in the morning. The rate at five years increased by 10 points.

Low impact

Earlier this week, warnings by Moody's on Debt Greek and Spanish, as well as Standard & Poor's in Belgium, have not had any noticeable impact. In the latter case, the spread between Belgian and German, the reference has certainly carved out a first step, before narrowing.

The investors have already declared the truce confectioners? Not at all: several factors explain the lull despite the bad news. In the case of Ireland, "the market is less severe now that Dublin is under the protection of international assistance plan," wrote in a note the Sokos Ioannis Strategist, BNP Paribas CIB overnight pay day loans. "In addition, degradation of several notches was already built into the rates for some time." The same reason applies to cases from Greece, Spain and Belgium.

The ECB intervention

The European Central Bank (ECB) has probably also markets to limit the rise in interest rates on debts of countries attacked, according to one observer. Last week, the guardian of the euro has increased its purchases amounting to 2.667 billion euros. This week it announced a capital increase to address the risk associated with holding these securities.

Investors will they stay long stoic? After Ireland, Spain is now the countries of the euro area has the best chance of seeing its debt worsened, according to analysts at BNP Paribas. "Being in a negative outlook from Moody's and Standard & Poor's, we believe that the Spanish note should be adjusted downward during the first months of 2011, or even earlier," writes Ioannis Sokos.It is not clear that these decisions again surprised investors who pay to Spain already high interest rates.

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OECD calls for further tax reforms

Recession and structural reforms have significantly reduced last year, the tax burden in rich countries. This is the main conclusion of the annual tax revenues of OECD published Wednesday by the organization in the chateau of La Muette. Taxes on businesses, households and consumption have thus shown, in 2009, 33.7% of GDP in OECD countries, one percentage point less than in 2008 (34.8%).

This decline is "unprecedented," notes the organization's tax expert, Stephen Matthews. "The tax burden has returned to levels not seen since the early 1990s. "Even if we qualify by country. Sweden and Denmark, for example, displaying the highest tax among developed countries, have not suffered a significant decline.Conversely, it has been spectacular in Iceland and Spain, where the tax burden has fallen more than 6% in two years, following the bursting of the housing bubble.

In France, which remains in the forefront of the most heavily taxed, the tax revenue share rose from 43% in 2007 to 41.9% in 2009. On the positive side: the Hexagon is, according to the OECD, the few countries where the tax burden has declined for three consecutive years. Despite this, their level remains very high, almost 5 points higher than that displayed by Germany, for example, where taxes account for only 37% of GDP. Another lesson from this study with the taxes that weigh more than 23.9% of their national wealth, the U.S. is the third of OECD countries showing the lowest tax.

For the Organization, the challenge now is the developed countries to "aim for a tax system that enhances economic performance." "The crisis is an opportunity to establish more equitable system," suggests the director of the Center for Tax Administration in OECD, Jeffrey Owens pay day loan lenders. Rather than increase the tax burden, it must be better distributed and more progressive.

France, bad student

"The tax burden should involve more use and land ownership as income physical," says Jeffrey Owens. The expert also calls for broadening the tax base and lower tax rates, citing two cases of success, Russia and New Zealand. Another priority is to simplify systems, reduce administrative costs. On this point, France, OECD to record the number of taxes, is like a bad student."This is the land on which we used as many pages to describe his system," quips Jeffrey Owens. Just for property taxes, France has more than five charges. Bercy should initiate a complete overhaul of the system between corporate taxes, taxes on income and consumption taxes to make it more consistent.

To replenish their funds, states must also focus more on environmental taxation. "We talk a lot. Now we must take action, "Judge Jeffrey Owens severely. As proof, the share of taxes "green" is steadily decreasing over the past ten years. Another advantage is manna to the fight against tax evasion, hobbyhorse dear to the Organization."It's important for Treasuries since the amounts are very important but also vis-à-vis public opinion to show the fairness of the tax burden," said Jeffrey Owens, who praised the passage of initiatives former budget minister Eric Woerth. "France has recovered 1 billion euros of revenue offshore and this is just the beginning …"

Debt: the ECB would present the bill

After helping to regret Greece, Ireland or Portugal, the European Central Bank presents the bill to its shareholders, the European governments. The ECB could ask at the summit of Heads of State and Government on Thursday a capital increase to offset the redemption of debt of struggling states, according to sources close to the institution cited by news agencies.

The ECB has so far bought back nearly $ 72 billion to struggling states' obligations to prevent the crisis from spreading in the eurozone. This measure, the ECB has taken reluctantly last spring, while the states were struggling to stem the contagion of a weak state to another.

Cushion

But buying government bonds in trouble, that is to say stocks that lose value every day in the markets, reduces the size of the balance sheet of the ECB.In other words, it deflates the cushion. "The ECB and the entire network of national central banks in the euro area, the Eurosystem has already committed 5 times the amount of its capital in the battle, that is to say in redemptions of bonds and the short-term loans to banks in difficulty, "said Gilles Moec, economist at Deutsche Bank.

If the portfolio value of the ECB lose 20% because of plummeting government bonds it holds, then it would undermine the Eurosystem faxless cash advance. To avoid being in situations of near bankruptcy, the ECB would therefore require States to bail it out through the national central banks. However, as all states are in deficit, they would have to remove themselves from the money markets. An expensive operation.

Besides a precautionary measure, requested by the ECB would therefore also sent a message to European states on how "what I do for you is not free." Some states might think that so far as the ECB somehow control the fire, they still had time to find a more permanent solution to the crisis.

Toward more acquisitions?

However, the markets could interpret differently a capital increase by the ECB. "There are two other ways to include the strengthening of the mattress of the ECB," says Cyril Reignat, Natixis: "Either the ECB to be ready to compensate its losses, or it is a first step toward redemption bond issues. "This message would defeat the objective of the Central Bank, which wants to stop as soon as possible its aid program to states in need.

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