From our correspondent in Brussels

Between doves and hawks her, Euroland barely keep a cool head on Greece. In a sentence, the European Commissioner Karel De Gucht has upset all the Friday speech intended to persuade Greek voters to make sacrifices if he wants to keep the euro.

"The ECB and the European Commission (…) study of emergency scenarios if Greece does not recover," dropped Karel De Gucht Belgian daily De Standaard. It was enough that a news agency transforms the event into "emergency plan" to exit the euro as markets become inflamed Friday.

Brussels later denied, against all probability, the very existence of the crisis scenario, whereas it is the role of staffs to anticipate. The ECB itself does not exclude it. Known for his outspokenness, Commissioner De Gucht is not the first to trip in the contradiction of speech.

The weekend is its chief Jose Manuel Barroso, who set fire to the powder by saying that "better" than Greece leaves the euro if it refuses to play the game President Committee had to make amends, just before reaching Washington, ensuring that Athens "is part of the family." Monday, it was the turn of Maria Fekter, Austrian Minister of Finance, a slap on the wrist because she wanted to leave Greece to the euro and the EU, even then readmit him.

To impress the Greeks, the European discourse can not ignore the scenario of rupture. The problem is that whenever the "bogeymen" open their mouths, they also wake up the specter of a breakup of the euro markets.

Profitable strategy

In Greece, the radical left Syriza, credited with 20% of votes in the polls, seen in the parliamentary elections of 17 June a referendum for or against the austerity, the euro should remain in the table. Europe, tired of paying to no avail, distills a message more complicated: June 17 it will be a referendum for or against the common currency, knowing that the rejection of the euro would lead to bankruptcy even more expensive for the Greeks.

The approach – now responsible Greek, European solidarity later – was agreed in Athens with the two traditional parties, the conservative New Democracy and PASOK socialist, says one in Brussels.

Without interfering officially, Europe wants to make clear to the Greeks that they can not pull the cake and eat it too. In return, Europeans are showing their commitment and offer a promise of better times. These days, were so bent on the exercise for Jean-Claude Juncker of Eurogroup, Mario Draghi for the ECB and Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel in Berlin: "Greece must remain in the euro."

Despite these boondoggles, the strategy can pay off. The conservative New Democracy (ND) replicate the advantage over their rivals Syriza recent days, according to surveys, in Athens opening the prospect of a majority in favor of austerity. Karel De Gucht said himself: the endgame has begun and the question "is whether everyone can keep his cool" to the end.

Trichet's plan to save the euro

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To avoid the breakup of the euro, the former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet claims to have a plan: put the financially troubled countries under the tutelage of Brussels, if it is unable to implement policies budget approved by the EU. It would operate a federal mechanism "outstanding", when fiscal policy of a Member State slips to threaten monetary union.

"Federalism exception seems not only necessary to ensure a strong economic and monetary union, but it could also adapt to the true nature of Europe in the long run," said the former president of the ECB to Peterson Institute in Washington. The idea is not new. It was proposed by German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, who wanted to entrust the finances of Greece to a "supercommissaire". Interference rejected by Athens as deemed "undemocratic".

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"If I am elected, I do not gèlerai, but I stoop down the salary of the president and ministers of 30%." By November 2011, Francois Hollande had made the campaign promise very symbolic, while Nicolas Sarkozy marked the spirits in increase of 172% net salary (of 7,084 to 19,331 euros) on arrival at the Elysee. Presented at the first cabinet meeting on Thursday by the new prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, the measure was formally adopted, confirmed by several cabinet members. Accordingly, the president and ministers will have their wages fall by 30%. "This is exemplary," explained Jean-Marc Ayrault Wednesday on France 2. This measure will be a decree. But this law, which will not be adopted before June and the election of the National Assembly, "will be retroactive," said the spokesman of the government, Najat Belkacem-Vallaud. It is therefore effective "as of May 15" date of the nomination of Francis Holland as president.

The gross monthly salary of Ministers will therefore decrease of 14,200 euros per month, to 9,940 euros. That of the Prime Minister will also be trimmed from 21,300 euros to 14,910 euros gross. Like, finally, the compensation of the President of the Republic which is equivalent to the Prime Minister. With a plane that has a surprising consequence. Ex-Ministers continue to earn more than their successors for another six months. Indeed, each team member Francois Fillon retain his salary during this period. A privilege granted to all former ministers, who lose their theory, however, other benefits.

In the camp of the UMP, the reactions to this first measure of government have not kept waiting. Jean-Francois Cope, the party's general secretary, described the pay cut of "deception" on Twitter.

I denounce the imposture, the clannishness and demagoguery are the appointment of the first steps of @ fhollande ump.org / news / esp

. – Jean-Francois Cope (@ jf_cope) May 17, 2012

It explains, in a statement, the government has Ayrault "14 members of more" than the first Fillon government. "We go from 15 ministers, four secretaries of state and a High Commissioner to 34 ministers and deputy ministers, an increase of 65%. Wage cuts of 30% can not hide this fact: the government of Francois Hollande will be far more costly to the taxpayer. "

Largest decline in Europe

If they come later than in other European countries, this decline in compensation of government is by far the strongest. One of the first to take this measure, as he tried to impose on his country a vast austerity plan, was the Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen. From 2009, he had reduced his salary and that of his ministers by 15%. In the process, in May 2010, Spain followed the movement by announcing a 15% reduction of salaries of its ministers. In the UK, the British prime minister, David Cameron, newly installed in power, his ministers imposed a 5% decrease in their pay. A dry diet made subsequently by Italy and Portugal, among others.

In Europe a constraint to fiscal Germany still appears a prosperous island. While the German economy grew by 2% annual rate in the first quarter, Angela Merkel and her ministers were granted for the first time in twelve years an increase of wages. The Cabinet decided on Wednesday to a 5.7% increase in three stages by August 2013, bringing the salary of Angela Merkel to about 17,016 euros gross per month and those of his ministers to about 13,795 euros.

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The campaign for the presidential election held the role of a damper on sales of national newspapers in March, registering a 0.5% decline, according to data released Thursday by the OJD on the basis of returns filed by publishers with the supervisory body of the press. A title, however, now in France, the national edition of Le Parisien, is distinguished by showing an increase of 10.3%.

Le Figaro rose 0.7%

"The whole quarter was bearer, with an average increase in sales of 10.5%, says Jean Hornain, CEO of Le Parisien-Aujourd'hui en France (Amaury Group). The political course supported us, but other factors have played in our favor. Unlike most of our competitors in the regional daily press, we have maintained our selling price to 90 cents during the week, making our way one of the most competitive in the retail outlets. We are also less affected by the free press, which makes the very difficult market in Ile-de-France. "Today in Francea also benefited from the judgment of the paper edition of France Soir, last December. Two other daily progress. One year after the launch of a new formula "bimédia" of the cross paid the sales rose 5.7% in March and 1.6% in the first quarter. Over the period, the daily Christian Bayard said to have multiplied by eight the number of subscribers to his website-croix.com, whose traffic has won at the same time 19%.

For its part, Le Figaro, which remains the largest national newspaper with paid circulation of 342,731 on average, increased by 0.7%. Over the quarter, Le Figaro is stable at 0.2%. All other securities are falling. In March, The World down 4.9%, to 288,881 copies, and the sports daily L'Team (Amaury) of 4.3%, to 258,476. Release is stable, slightly down by 0.5%, to 122,444 copies, despite sales at (kiosks and newsagents) at high levels for the daily run by Nicolas Demorand. Echoes lose, for their part, 3.1%, to 121,889 copies.

Rise of digital

"At first glance, on sales in Paris, the impact of the campaign was less than in 2007, says an editor. However, it must wait to see the performance of securities regions for an initial assessment, but we did have an effect on sales numbers. "

Along with paper sales, electronic editions of national newspapers continue to grow at a healthy pace. Le Figaro including more than doubled sales of its digital versions by crossing the course of 6000 readable copies smartphones and tablets. This share digital broadcast reached, according to OJD, 5.6% for Libération, Les Echos, 6.9% and 8.3% for Le Monde.

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Critics have not kept waiting to condemn the Japanese government project to restart two nuclear reactors. Since the disaster of Fukushima and security measures that followed, almost all of the park which provided 28% of the electricity of the Archipelago has been shutdown. Today, one unit is still running and should be stopped for maintenance in the coming weeks. So far, Japan has managed this failure by attempting to reduce energy consumption and increasing imports of oil and gas.

However, with the approach of summer and peak demand associated with the use of air conditioners, electric companies, industry and the government becomes more pressing to restart some nuclear sites. Kansai Electric Power Company, now deprived of all its reactors, and says she may suffer from inadequate power of 20% during peak summer.

Obtain an understanding of citizens

Friday, the government Yoshihiko Noda had approved the reactivation plan of units 3 and 4 of the Central Oi (a hundred miles from Kyoto). Ensuring that the reactors in question comply with new security standards, the industry minister, Yukio Edano, nevertheless said: "The revival will be once we have obtained an understanding of citizens, starting with the local population. "

Nothing is less certain for now. Environmental groups are quickly mounted slot, as the Japanese press. "It is difficult to understand why the government so anxious to restart the reactors," wrote an editorial Sunday in the general Japanese daily Mainichi Shimbun, saying that more thorough inspections should be made before any restart. For its part, the daily Asahi Shimbunregrette "inconstancy" Noda government in its nuclear policy. Before taking office, the Prime Minister had indeed promised to continue the denuclearization of the country. "Independent studies show that there will be no shortage of energy," says his side Wakao Hanaoka, an activist of Greenpeace Japan.

While the population does not seem ready to return to nuclear, renewable energy has found a new attraction. Last week was thus launched a solar power plant of 70 megawatts, the largest in the country.

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"Ask the fiscal program of Sarkozy!

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It speaks only of "it": family, friends, in shops, on leaving school … Less candidates in the presidential election evoke, he obsesses over the French. "It" is the higher taxes will fall on taxpayers in the coming months. For if not all are promised the same tax hell, few people are certain to escape. ISF for VAT through the income tax, local taxes or the CSG, all candidates for president – without exception! – Promise to raise taxes. More than seven in ten French expect, according to our survey Opinion Way – Fiducial.

Recognizing the need to redress the public accounts, the French are frankly skeptical about how go about policies. According to our survey, 83% believe it would be better to start by addressing the reduction of public expenditure. Las … Both favorites of 6 May, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande, have detailed these days their tax proposals, which leave little doubt about their intentions.

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.

Side of the president candidate, it is argued that the rebalancing of accounts goes to three quarters by controlling public spending. Higher taxes will do that for one quarter. Moreover, it adds in the entourage of the head of state, the bulk of tax increases has already been voted. In recent months, 32 billion in new revenues were indeed acts by Parliament and began to take effect. It is largely due to the increase in the tax burden that France was able to record a deficit lower than expected in 2011: 5.2% of GDP instead of 5.7% originally expected.

The reduced VAT rate increased from 5.5 to 7% in late December (except for staples). Social charges on savings have been identified, tax loopholes, planed, and an outstanding contribution is requested with the highest incomes. A total of 11 billion euros of additional levies on households' most-favored "have been decided," because the solidarity required "at this time of crisis, Nicolas Sarkozy justified in his Letter to the French. How to respond to the argument of "tax giveaways to the rich made" repeated by his opponents to long speeches.

Conspicuously absent from the count of the president candidate, rising by 1.6 percentage points of VAT, already passed, is expected to come into force on 1 October. "It is not a levy increase, as it will be fully offset by reductions in social charges on low wages," says one of his entourage. Not sure this is enough to convince the French, skeptical of this "social VAT" (52% opposed, according to our survey).

Nevertheless, it remains to be Nicolas Sarkozy another 8 billion euros to find to meet its goal of a return to 3% deficit next year. But the UMP candidate has promised if re-elected, "no tax increase will weigh on households', except the famous" tax on tax exiles, "which he expects 500 to 700,000,000 euros year.

tax reform is the No. 1 priority of Holland

With Francois Hollande, however, taxpayers will not have completed the tax increases. If elected, the Socialist candidate wants to make tax reform the "mother of all reforms" of his five years. He warned that the tax burden would contribute half the recovery of accounts of the country and announced a forty billion of new taxes, of which 16 billion would weigh on individuals, especially the "most affluent". The team of the socialist candidate is careful to note that these increases would be added to those of M. Sarkozy … because, apart from the increase in VAT on books (from 5.5% to 7% since April 1) and the "social VAT", the PS candidate does not come back on measures already enacted.

By the summer, according to its "road map" published on April 4, Parliament would be asked to vote shock measures announced during the campaign, such as capping of tax loopholes to 10,000 euros per year, great tranche of 75% for revenues of over EUR 1 million, but the end of the tax exemption of overtime.

Despite this clarification in the calendar, remains a big blur of headlights more ads. For example: measures of higher taxes on income, such as super-slice or ceiling niches, would come into effect this year or January 1, 2013? The tax on millionaires would it apply to income tax or the home, such as tax practitioners presentiment, by hand? What about the ISF – payable in June – that Francois Hollande plans to burden? Would it be postponed until September? Is there a tax shield to 85% of income as suggested by the candidate? His entourage of these questions is swept out of hand: "These are questions for a budget minister, not a candidate as president." Tuesday, Michel Sapin, in charge of the socialist project, said the super slice to 75% would last "as long" as the recovery of the finances of France require.

Beware of leaving headquarters

Meanwhile, it was panic. Tax consulting firms claim to be inundated with requests for expatriation. "There is a before and after 75%," says a Parisian tax. Unprecedented fact, artists stamped on the left as Jamel Debbouze have spread in the media against proposed tax of Holland. Francoise Hardy has even been suggested (Paris Match 5 April) that it would move to London if they win socialist. Not sure that her friend is still a rose … Especially as the Socialist candidate, in reply, accused the stars of "whining" about their taxes! But the Dutch team, in private, multiplies the reassuring statements. The super slice? This is to "send a signal to the bosses of the CAC 40 and their extravagant salaries," they say. Everything will be done to protect athletes and artists (how? Mystery, equal taxation is a constitutional principle sacrosanct).

And for everyone else? For the Socialist tax plan, if passed as is, would increase the rating of millions of taxpayers, far beyond a few hundred privileged, as shown by simulations that we have asked the Cabinet Delsol Lawyers. Certainly, large estates and high income are at the forefront. But they are not alone.

Take the alignment of taxation of capital income on those work. This provision "could have important implications for public shareholding," warns Mathieu Le Tacon, Delsol of Lawyers, which states that dividends are already taxed once at the corporate income tax (33.3%) in the company before being taxed at the shareholder. The taxation of overtime? It will affect many employees, and 235,000 teachers who have won, thanks to them, additional one billion euros last year.

]]> http://oursaviorsalbany.org/taxes-what-lies-ahead/feed/ 0 http://oursaviorsalbany.org/poker-legend-behind-the-whale-of-london/ http://oursaviorsalbany.org/poker-legend-behind-the-whale-of-london/#comments Wed, 11 Apr 2012 22:04:20 +0000 admin http://oursaviorsalbany.org/poker-legend-behind-the-whale-of-london/  

Cemented over the Internet and social networks, legends are built today at full speed. Especially in the "global village" of finance. Demonstrated experience in recent days by crossing Iksil Bruno, senior trader but anonymous until last Friday the bank JP Morgan in London.

The man remains discreet, understandably. Within days, he became the "whale of London", or "the Thames", or "white" – we do not know too much – or Voldemort, the terrible witch of the Harry Potter … The number of nicknames given to it becomes suspect. The story is told that then took a dramatic turn when it was revealed that the banker in question was French, a fact which would be enough to make a "trader crazy," Kerviel in a power nap.

This trader is part of the Chief Investment Office of JP Morgan in London. Mission: to cover the global credit risk of the bank. A bank, remember, which is one of the first in the world with some 2.3 trillion dollars in assets, including nearly 1 trillion of bank loans or bond companies.

Cover such a balance, that is to say smooth risk, entails putting a lot of money in the balance. And that's what the CIO of JP Morgan in London: its positions would reach $ 350 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. A figure which should not be misunderstood. Within this volume, the positions that bet on the rise of a particular index are largely offset by positions that bet on a decline, leaving the final few tens of millions of dollars, still in danger Loss … or possibility of gain.

An aberration of market

Why the activity of this team of JP Morgan is she suddenly appeared in full light? Bruno Iksil would take very large positions on a particular index, a derivative that replicates the behavior of CDS (credit default swaps) of some 121 companies. Such large positions that its movements can only move the value of this product, regardless of the price of 121 CDSs that compose it. A market aberration which obviously was not without consequences on some hedge funds, put in losses by the orders of the influential CIO JP Morgan. It is in this context it seems that some seem to have wanted to settle accounts in the press intermediary.

Behind "the matter of the whale in London," we therefore call one of those pretty poker games including financial traders have the secret. JP Morgan, who has not the reputation of being a bank-casino chooses to treat it with discretion. She is content to know that the activities of its London office are intended to cover its loan portfolio, and that the positions taken are knowingly.

The story may therefore be short-lived. Even if it raises real questions about the functioning of finance today. The first key of course the lack of market transparency of derivatives products, and in particular credit derivatives, whose gross volume reached tens of billions of dollars worldwide. The second, current, examines the nature of transactions. When these volumes are involved, is it still just hedging strategy or can we not think that JP Morgan also plays some of his capital? Soon, this question is no longer just theoretical: under Volcker rule that will apply to U.S. banks that collect deposits, such as JP Morgan, will no longer have the right to make the proprietary trading .

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This choice is a surprise. A native of Korea, physician training, graduate of Harvard and Brown, Jim Yong Kim is not known in international financial circles. However it is in the world of health and development, particularly for his efforts against AIDS and tuberculosis. He specifically directed the Department to Fight against AIDS of the World Health Organization.

The management of the development institution is traditionally an American, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has always been attributed to a European. The odds of Jim Yong Kim selection by the board of directors of the bank amounted to the extent that the United States, the largest shareholder of the World Bank, has the support of European countries, Japan and many countries emerging.

Hours before the announcement by President Obama, South Africa had formally proposed that Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Nigerian Finance Minister, and former World Bank director, succeeds Robert Zoellick, whose term as U payday lenders.S. President the bank comes to an end in late June. As at the choice of Christine Lagarde last June to head the IMF, rich countries have promised an emerging open and transparent process of selection that results in the designation of the most qualified candidate. Despite this commitment, developing countries find that their chances to win one of them are tiny. Their inability to agree on a single candidate is indeed an enormous handicap.

Jim Yong Kim is expected in the coming days begin a journey in the great capitals of the world to present his candidacy and convince shareholders of the World Bank of the correctness of its strategy to fight poverty and underdevelopment.

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The plight of Greece will not last more than two additional years. This is at least the promise of the Greek prime minister, Lucas Papademos. "I am convinced that we made more than half way to economic recovery, even if the fiscal consolidation process will take longer. Of positive growth rates should be achieved by less than two years, "suggests he in an interview with Financial Times.

This statement comes as Greece is to receive on Monday from the European Union an additional EUR 5.9 billion. This is the first installment of the second aid package of 130 billion euros granted to Greece in early March. This loan comes new monumental adjustment efforts on the part of Greece, such as lowering the minimum wage by 20% as the country had adopted earlier this year to convince its European partners to help new .  

Mea culpa European

For its part, the President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, made his mea culpa in the Greek press. "I think we did not sufficiently focused on the dimension of growth to the general problem of Greece. We especially emphasized the consolidation of public finances without giving alternative or leave the choice to Greece, the official said center-right daily Kathimerini. We have been hard towards fiscal consolidation, but very low in relation to the other important parameter, that of growth. "

Same story on the side of specialists missioned to Athens to recover the Greek state cheap credit report. "Greece has achieved something unique by testing the limits of what could accept and support people, said this weekend the head of the technical mission of the European Commission, Germany's Handelsblatt Horst Reichenbach. We will not forget. "These statements by European officials" let dawn a change of tone, "Analysis Jesus Castillo, an economist at Natixis:" Even if the strategy is led by the North, led by Germany, one can rejoice that growth is better taken into account to support structural measures very hard ".

Five years of recession

Greece entered its fifth consecutive year of recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downwards its growth forecast last week. He believes the country should emerge from recession in 2013, but he is expected to grow anywhere that year. Meanwhile, business is expected to decline by 4.8% in 2012 (after -6.9% in 2011) and the Greek State should continue its efforts to reform itself. According to the latest European Commission report on Greece, published last Friday, Athens has not made sufficient efforts to combat tax evasion and privatize public enterprises.

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