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Spain, Italy and Belgium in the viewfinder of rating agencies

Fitch Ratings lowered the rating two notches from Spain, which now stands at "AA-". Spain held so far a "AA +", the fourth highest on a scale of twenty. More worryingly, the note is accompanied by a 'Negative' outlook, which means that the agency could lower it back to medium term.

Spanish growth at half mast

Moody's in turn should decide by the end of October on a possible downgrade Spanish now "Aa2" (the third best possible)."With significant funding needs" of the Spanish State, to cover its budget expenditures and net external debt is "one of the highest in the world" (91% of GDP), said Fitch, "the more volatile strong a negative effect on financing conditions in the market of Spain. "

But there are also internal factors in the country "risks to fiscal consolidation as a result of performance parts." The same agency Fitch has lowered Wednesday including the long-term rating of the Basque Country, one of the richest region in which it criticizes the "weak fiscal performance." Growth forecasts have been revised downwards. Wednesday, the Bank of Spain announced that the country's growth expected to slow in the third quarter, to reach an economic activity 'lackluster'.The Spanish government has also recognized that the economic growth targets it had set for 2011 and subsequent years would be "hard to reach" because of the risk of recession in the world.

Italian governance into question

Fitch also lowered the rating one notch to Italy, "A +" against "AA-" and does not see her again in the fall if the country would miss its targets for reducing the budget deficit. Fitch was the last of three major international rating agencies have not downgraded from Italy since the beginning of the debt crisis in the eurozone no fax cash advances. She explained that the high level of public debt and budgetary financing needs, combined with the low level of potential growth (the country), made in Italy especially vulnerable.The Agency is challenging the country's governance and stressed that the differences in the Parliament and the escapades of the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, help to weaken the ruling coalition.

Belgium heckled by Dexia

Belgium is also in sight. The agenceMoody's said it was considering lowering its rating, currently at "Aa1", the second best possible. The agency cited three reasons: the crisis in the euro area, concerns for economic growth and the possibility of additional support to the banking system, particularly in establishing Franco-Belgian Dexia.

Another European country in turmoil, Portugal, has been confirmed its rating of "BBB-" (the last before falling into the category of "speculative") by Fitch, which continued on negative watch at least until the end of the year.Standard & Poor's, confirmed Tuesday the rating "BBB-" from Portugal, while maintaining it as a negative outlook. Portugal, the third country in the eurozone after Greece and Ireland to receive international financial assistance, is facing new economic challenges that undermine his efforts to clean up its public accounts. Progress in implementing the program of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and its budget for 2012 will be crucial.

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Crisis: Bernanke and Trichet worried

The CAC 40 lost nearly 3%, Wall Street sells more than 1%. The atmosphere is clearly not fixed in the beautiful capital markets on Tuesday. The bosses of U.S. and European central banks did nothing to calm them.

Two days before his last conference as president of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet is pessimistic for the euro area. "We believe that the euro area will be very moderate in the second half," said one who will be replaced by Mario Draghi on November 1. As for inflation, he said that the rate should remain "above 2% in the coming months. Next year, it should fall below. " These are all signs that suggest that interest rates should remain unchanged Thursday.

As for the United States, the head of the central bank, Ben Bernanke is more optimistic."Recent indicators, including those of new jobless claims show that it is likely that the sluggish growth in employment continues in the coming period," he warned. Before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, the Fed chairman has urged politicians to "avoid taking fiscal measures may impede the ongoing economic recovery."

"We can not just replace the government"

Sluggish growth, employment at half-mast, high unemployment, the United States and Europe are the worst of an economic plan. And while a slowdown is being felt in China. Most economists expect further aid from the central banks against the inaction of governments, but Ben Bernanke and Jean-Claude Trichet reminded of a common voice that States to revive the global economy."The measures to promote healthy growth of the economy and employment are the shared responsibility of all politicians, in close cooperation with the private sector," he argued. And the President of the ECB concluded: "It is their responsibility to deal with the worst crisis in the postwar period. We can not substitute for governments under any circumstances. "

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"SPECIAL – crisis: the fear of debt

Public debt reached 1.692 trillion euros

French public debt continues to swell. It increased by 46.4 billion euros in April-June, peaking at 1.6927 trillion euros, INSEE reported Friday. This represents approximately 86.2% of gross domestic product, that is to say, the wealth generated by France in one year.

The state is primarily responsible for this increase. His contribution has indeed increased in the second quarter of 52.6 billion euros. "This is essentially its long-term marketable debt," said INSEE. Clearly, these are bonds issued by the state to investors and repayable on a long horizon (ten years). However, local governments have reduced their debt by 2.7 billion euros, and the government social security declined 2.3 billion.

Loans to Portugal and Ireland as part of the bailout in the euro area weighed 2 credit report.4 billion euros (1.6 billion for the first 0.8 billion for the second). Conversely, the French car manufacturers have paid up to € 2 billion loans at the height of the crisis, in 2009.

Reduce government debt returns to stop a ship at full speed. The effect of inertia is such that it takes time-years-in order to stop its progression. The government intends to reduce the amount of debt in the coming years. It will peak at 87.4% of GDP at end 2012 and to decline 87.3% in 2013, 86.2% in 2014 and 84.1% in 2015.

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Aid to Greece: an important vote on Thursday in Germany

The green light from Germany, expected today, will be symbolic and decisive. The expansion of the powers of the European Financial Stability (EFSF), with 440 billion euros, as decided on July 21, is one of the keys to the debt crisis in Europe. But it requires the agreement of seventeen members of the euro area.

After France, Belgium, Spain, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Portugal and Slovenia, the Finnish Parliament yesterday approved the building.But Finland has still not clear what the additional security that it intended to apply to Greece in return for future loans could be guaranteed in the country.

In fact, while the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn, said two weeks ago that all States in the euro area have ratified the project at the end of the month, the cacophony in the field is law.

Slovakia has postponed its vote on October 25. His prime minister supports the expansion of missions of the Fund, but are still strong disagreements within the governing coalition. Member of the euro area since 2009, was the only country to refuse to participate in the first loan to Greece last year. And the head of Parliament is prepared to "torpedo" the project."My goal is to ensure that Slovakia will lose billions of euros ( business card…) The European Union does not need our money," he said.

The specter of bankruptcy

Because Greece is still afraid. Czech President Vaclav Klaus, interviewed by American television outside of the last UN General Assembly, said without hesitation that perfectly imagined that "a country so in the euro area." He added: "I'm afraid that European leaders are still spending lavishly to Greece."

An opinion widely shared by Austria, which must meet its Parliament on September 30, and whose foreign minister recently said that one could legitimately "consider bankruptcy of Greece."Like all small countries that have not voted – Cyprus, Estonia, Malta – he ensures that he wants to rely on the results of discussions between Athens and the Troika (ECB, Commission, IMF). But the finance minister said although this ultimate solution is "better than a rescue too expensive."

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Yet the conditions for a sustainable rebound

• The stock market environment is in many ways more fragile than in 2008

After the capitulation market in recent days, many investors are wondering whether it is time to return the purchase. Beyond a simple technical rebound, the chances of quick recovery courses are limited for the simple reason that the current stock market is in some ways more fragile than in 2008. Signs of slowdown are multiplying in the United States, Europe could enter recession in the coming months, and the deterioration in manufacturing activity in China shows that the theory of decoupling between emerging and rich countries no longer holds the ramp. Response capacity of government to stimulate consumption are practically nil, and the effect of accompanying policies of central banks has reached its limits.The current crisis comes mainly from the usual market issues related to the level of market valuation or the correction of excesses after a period of intense speculation. The epicenter of the crisis is now in the euro area, with governments overwhelmed by the level of public debt and unable to agree on the management of their common currency. The solution to these difficulties lies in the hands of "political" and not in the trading rooms and in business. This is what the operators despair!

• The core business is a real force that

The recovery will be difficult, but much of the bad news began to be integrated into the course. The precipitous decline of the indices shows that the Exchange has already taken a good step ahead of the crisis.A CAC 40 to 2800 points means, for example, that investors expect an increase, not corporate profits, but a 30% drop in profits in 2012. This pessimism is starting to become excessive, especially for industrial groups, such as Air Liquide, Schneider Electric and Michelin, a strong presence in emerging markets where business slows but does not decrease instant personal loans guaranteed. The same goes for business as L'Oreal, Essilor International and Pernod Ricard, which have strong brands and where margins are not challenged. The treatment of more defensive companies, such as France Telecom, Sanofi, or GDF Suez, also reached its limits.These values ​​offer attractive yields of between 10 to 6%.

• The plight of the shareholders of the banks could come to an end

In three months, the market value of the three largest French banks, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas, has been halved. This collapse is comparable to the fall in prices occurred after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Investors have punished the weak provisions made in the accounts to meet the commitments of banks in the peripheral countries of the euro area and a general loss of confidence in respect of institutions in the euro area. Far from scaring the market, the rumor of a possible entry of the state in their capital in the form of preference shares is now likely to reassure investors.10 to 15 billion euros to recapitalize matter which it would lead to a "dilution" of shareholders limited. After the destruction of 50 billion capitalization in the summer, the amounts mentioned are already largely taken into account by the markets. Bank stocks will certainly remain under pressure, but the plight of their shareholders might come to an end.

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"Investors remain on the alert

"The Paris Bourse is expected to remain on guard

Markets relapse, the CAC 40 lost 3% to 2940 points

The Greek crisis can not stop producing its adverse effects on the markets. Monday, the Paris Bourse had another session black. The CAC 40 has raised the red flag at the opening. He then widened its losses for most of the session. At the finish, he loses 3% to 2940 points.

Even gloomy atmosphere on other European financial centers. In Frankfurt, the Dax lost 2.83% and the FTSE in London has sold 2.03%. The ill wind has also blown on Wall Street. Sitting in the Dow Jones fell by 1.93% and the Nasdaq 2.06%.

Last week, European markets had experienced a brief respite, hoping significant progress on the issue of Greek debt. But the meeting of European finance ministers on Friday and Saturday in Poland ended in failure.They have postponed any decision on the October installment of a new tranche of 8 billion euros to Greece, which desperately needs the money.

Banks on the front line

The markets welcomed the news calmly. "Despite the need for action, European leaders continue to show slow and have not yet ratified the measures promised July 21," observe the experts Saxo Bank guaranteed high risk personal loans. But for the strategists of Aurel BGC, the markets will continue to brood, "as investors will not feel that a lasting solution was found for Greece."

Trying once again to reassure the French Minister of Economy Baroin said that the issue of a default of Greece, feared by some observers was "not a working hypothesis" in the zone euro.Investor caution was also reinforced by the expectation of two important deadlines in the afternoon. A teleconference between the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the Troika, "between the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF. In the U.S., investors sifting through the intervention of President Barack Obama, who introduced new measures to reduce the deficit amounting to 3 trillion dollars. Bank stocks were again at the forefront. BNP Paribas lost 5.48% and 6.70% Societe Generale.

Michelin speeds in the low-cost China

Revolution in Clermont-Ferrand. To conquer China, Michelin, the tire specialist high-end, the gum is in the low-cost. The manufacturer yesterday signed a definitive agreement with two Chinese groups to create a joint venture that will produce and market products for passenger cars and light trucks under the brand Warrior. The principle of this agreement was announced in April. It must still be approved by the Chinese authorities.

The new company is 40% owned by the French and 60% by local partners, Double Coin and Huayi. The plant, under construction, will be located in Wuwei, about 400 kilometers west of Shanghai. The project, costing about 390 million, is intended to eventually produce 15 million tires per year, for the Chinese market.The operation was hailed by the Paris Bourse, where the title Michelin jumped 5.3%.

Double in size

The group, whose main production facilities located in markets "mature", had already started the construction of three giant plants in China, Brazil and India. In the Middle Kingdom, where it is installed since 1988, the company has four factories and employs over 6000 people.

Michelin, who wants to double in size in developing countries by 2020, up particularly in Asia, where he says the market should grow by 9 to 10% annually over the next few years. In the first half, he realized, however, still 75% of its sales in Europe and North America.

To succeed in Asia, including China, the French had no choice but to face the players in the middle and entry-level, such as the Korean Hankook, which hold 40% of the world.And that growth has come at the expense of leaders Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear. Between 2004 and 2009, global market shares of French are well past 19.4% to 15.5%. "It is very important to have a presence in this niche" of low-cost, recently explained Jean-Dominique Senard, the new managing partner of the group. "We can not leave the field open to our Asian competitors, more and more aggressive." Michelin will instead expand the availability of its distribution network in order to "meet all customer demands." So far, "we were not able to do so profitably," says Jean-Dominique Senard.

Prior to the signing of the agreement, Michelin Warrior Tire already manufactured at its plant in Shanghai Double Coin brand which had given him to use.The French had created a joint venture with the Chinese group in 2001 which he had bought the shares in 2010. The goal now is to dedicate the site of Shanghai to the Michelin brand, and "to increase greatly the production of the Warrior brand" with the new joint venture, said Bibendum.

Relations with Double Coin had not always been in good shape, since 2007, Michelin had accused its Chinese partner to produce in its plants counterfeits of its truck tires.

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The Asian market reassured by Wall Street

The Asian market continues on the way up. Thursday again, investors are driven by the mood of U.S. markets which closed yesterday on a fourth straight session in the green. The European market has also sent positive signals. Investors are reassured by the Fed does not exclude to use new tools of monetary easing to support growth, as well as encouraging indicators.

The Nikkei above the 3900 points

In Tokyo, the Nikkei, which started the day on an increase of 0.63%, jumped 1.18% to 9060.80 points at closing. It thus goes beyond the psychological barrier of 9000 points for the first time in two weeks. The technology sector is facing in the image of Casio (3.91% to 504 yen) and Kyocera (2.28% to 7160 yen). Sony (1.98% to 1698 yen) and Toshiba (0.90% to 334 yen) also support the rating.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng up 1.10% to 20,760.80 points, also pulled up by the technology sector. Foxconn wins 3.10%, 3.64% Lenovo, Alibaba.com 5.33% and 2.30% Tencent Holdings. The Shanghai Stock Exchange a little more concerned about risk tightning money while the government has reaffirmed it a priority to price stabilization. The Shanghai Composite lost 0.61% to 2829.41 points.

The Australian S & P gained 0 payday loans direct lenders.63%, the Korean Kospi is 2.10% and 1.59% of India Sensex.

China: good news macroéoconomiques

Also Thursday, the good news fell in Asia. The index of manufacturing activity in China reached the final 50.9 in August, against 50.7 in July. The first estimate of the index of purchasing managers HSB had reported a slight slowdown, with a flash PMI at 49.8 in August from 49.3 in July.PMI purchasing managers suggests that "manufacturing activity is stabilized despite the tightening of monetary conditions in the country and soft demand abroad," said Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore .

In Japan, new vehicle sales, excluding mini-models, were down 25.5% in August compared to the same month last year, to 216,510 copies.

In Australia, retail sales figures were stronger than expected last month, up 0.5%.

Oil up

Oil prices were also up Thursday morning in electronic trading in Asia. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gained 21 cents to 89.02 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery 29 cents to 115.14 dollars.

The Cac 40 widening losses

The day after a session sharply higher on Wall Street and in Asia, the Paris market continued its rebound sharply on Tuesday after rising 2.2% Monday. At the opening, the benchmark index of the Paris Bourse was awarded 1.22%. But at midday, the CAC 40 is pressed into the red (-0.40% to 3141.62 points) with shortness of breath and banking stocks before the release of major U.S. indicators.

Meanwhile, the announcement in late morning, a confidence index of entrepreneurs and consumers in the euro area fell sharply in August may have contributed to this turnaround.Throughout the European Union, the confidence of business leaders and consumers has declined even more significantly, by 5 percentage points to 97.3 points, against 102.3 points in July.

The business sentiment index in the euro zone, published separately by Brussels, also fell for the sixth straight month to $ 0.07 against 0.44 points in July.

Yesterday on Wall Street indices ended the session up 2.2% for the Dow and the Nasdaq 3.3% driven by the consumption figures in the United States. Asian markets followed suit with their American counterparts. In Tokyo, the Nikkei was up 1.22% to 8959.75 points while unemployment is again on the rise for the second consecutive month in July and that retail sales fell by 0.3% from June

The correct orientation of financial markets has boosted oil prices.Asian markets, the Nymex is trading at 87.49 dollars, he finished in 87.27 dollars in New York, up $ 1.90 from Friday. Brent crude traded him to 112.17 dollars.

On the front of the foreign exchange market, the euro fell slightly against the dollar, below $ 1.45, to 1.4392 dollar.

Fears about the health of banks

The day before, call to order by Christine Lagarde bound for European banks has prompted European leaders to defend the institutions of the old continent. "European banks are much better capitalized today than they were a year ago. This was confirmed by stress tests conducted in July, "assured the Commissioner of Economic Affairs Olli Rehn.

But on Tuesday, it was the turn of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to throw fuel on the fire.The IASB believes that the provisions made by banks and European insurers about their exposure to Greek debt have been dumped, reports the Financial Times. According to the newspaper, BNP Paribas and CNP Assurances are particularly concerned by this risk. BNP Paribas was down 0.45% in mid-session at 34.24 euros and CNP Assurances does not earn more than 0.20% to 12.35 euros.

When asked, BNP Paribas said that it had "pre-funded its exposure to Greece in full agreement with its auditors and the competent authorities, according to the plan drawn up by the Union on July 21" to help Greece, according to a spokesman .The bank had said on August 2 had provisioned 534 million euros to compensate for lost value of Greek bonds.

For its part, the CNP said it was "in line with the agreement of July 21," which provided the threshold of 21%, "validated by our listeners no teletrack payday loan."

Also Tuesday, the president of MEDEF, Laurence Parisot, in turn criticized the words of Christine Lagarde, saying his statement "incomprehensible. European banks are strong. And for French banks, we must bear in mind that we have banks among the strongest in the world, "said the boss of bosses of Europe 1.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also generally lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012, leaving unchanged the forecast of Germany for the current year.

Still on macroeconomic indicators will be out today. Before trading, the markets did not take umbrage at the publication of a fall, but strong early sales of new homes in the second quarter in France.

Are also expected in mid-day figures for business failures.

Overseas, the index of consumer confidence, the housing (Case-Shiller) and the minutes of the last Fed meeting will also facilitate the session.

Arcelor-Mittal is growing in Australia

On the corporate side, Arcelor-Mittal (0.45% to 14.41 euros) is about to take control of Australia's Macarthur, world's largest producer of pulverized coal, in association with the American Peabody Energy . The tender offer made by the European steel amounts to 5.16 billion dollars.Macarthur's management finally yielded to the new offer revised upwards by the Arcelor-Peobody tandem: it is 16 Australian dollars (11.8 euros) per share, against A $ 15.50 earlier.

The semi-annual publications are now many, especially among heavyweights rating. Note that the Y real, Havas, Bouygues, Colas, Vinci, Bollore, NRJ Group and Devoteam detail their half-year after the market closes.

In addition, Ipsen (8.62% to 24.05 euros) announced revenues up 5.3% in the first half.He also announced an upward adjustment of its sales forecast for 2011 in favor of a less pronounced decline than expected sales in general practice.

Hermès International climbed 1.86% to 263.35 euros before preparing to publiecation on Wednesday, excellent interim results, widely anticipated by the market after the increase last month by the group's growth forecasts sales and profitability. From January to June, sales of luxury brand famous for its bags and silk scarves were up 22% to EUR 1.3 billion, more than expected by analysts, according to data released in July .

The French shipowner CMA-CGM said that 2011 should be "a good year" for the group, claiming to have already funded the bulk of its investments for 2011 and 2012.The company said to have $ 1.7 billion (1.17 billion euros) in cash at the end of June, July and have paid $ 550 million bond line, while press reports evoked ago few weeks of possible cash flow problems.

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Wall Street ends on a rebound after Fed speeches

A disappointment, yes, but short-lived. After opening down moderately, Wall Street initially widened its losses after the speech, as expected, Ben Bernanke. This involved the measurement of the Fed to support the U.S. economy at annual meetings of the Fed's Jackson Hole (Wyoming). But the New York indexes were quickly taken: at the close, the Dow Jones gained 1.20% to 11,283.17 points. The S & P 500, wider, takes 1.49% to 1176.57 points. The Nasdaq dominated by technology advance on its side of 2.47% to 2479.44 points. Over the whole week, the Dow gained 4.3% and the S & P 500 4.7% and the Nasdaq 5.9%, reversing some losses last week.

The Fed chairman did not communicate further decisions to boost growth, leaving the possibility of a new monetary easing later.Yet he managed to reassure the markets by stating that "the foundation of growth" were still there in the United States. "It is clear that the recovery after the crisis was much less robust than we had hoped," he acknowledged, however,

He also announced that the Fed would meet two days in September, instead of originally planned to study, among other things, instruments designed to bring a new economic stimulus money. Ben Bernanke promised that his institution will "do its utmost" to ensure growth and price stability.

Concerning the debt crisis in the eurozone, "I trust," he said, convinced that the Europeans will do what it takes to get by.

Just in Europe, the indices sank after the speech of Ben Bernanke: The CAC 40 ended the session on a drop of 2.30%, the Dax in Frankfurt loose 3% and the FTSE 100 in London 2.13%.Yesterday Wall Street had already ended down sharply in anticipation of disappointing announcements from Ben Bernanke. This morning too, the seats were won by Asian nervousness.

GDP revised down

Before the appointment of Jackson Hole, investors were aware of the second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter. During this period, U.S. GDP grew by 1% annual rate over the previous three months, said the Commerce Department, revising and down 0.3 points his first estimate of growth in the spring published in late July. Analysts had forecast a less pronounced rate revision, to 1.1%, according to their median forecast.

As for currencies, the euro is regaining ground against the dollar after the speech of Ben Bernanke. To 22h (French time), the European currency was worth 1.4486 dollars against 1.4378 dollars on Thursday night.As for the oil markets, U.S. crude oil ended up slightly, and snapped a series of four weeks of losses. Since Monday, oil gained 3.11 dollars or 3.78%. On the Nymex, the contract on October U.S. crude (WTI) finished with a gain of 7 cents to 85.37 dollars baril.Dans the same time, Brent advanced 0.61%, or 68 cents to 111.30 dollars.

Wall Street should open normally by Monday morning as Hurricane Irene is expected to reach the East Coast of the United States this weekend. The New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Friday ordered the mandatory evacuation of more than 250,000 New Yorkers living in vulnerable coastal areas before Saturday 17 hours. "We intend to be open for trading Monday.We have a device to respond to such events, to the market to function while ensuring the safety of our staff, "said a spokesman for the New York Stock Exchange AFP.

Values ​​of the day

On the corporate side, Madison Square Garden (1.31% to 23.14 dollars), Frontline (-0.15% to 6.47 dollars) and Royal Bank of Canada (-2.69% to 49.89 dollars ) must be published.

Tiffany (9.35% to 69.01 dollars) reported Friday a profit of 69 cents per share in the second quarter, while the consensus gave 70 cents. Sales came out at 872.7 million (consensus: 786 million). The jeweler raised its guidance range for the BPA 2011, it now expects between 3.65 and 3.75 dollars. (Consensus: 3.56 dollars per share).

HollyFrontier (7.17% to 70.73 dollars) has reported a dividend increase of 17% to 8.75 cents.MTS Systems (-1.09% to 34.55 dollars) also announced a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend.

Pandora Internet Radio (-2.50% to 8.20 dollars) which made its IPO in June, on Thursday posted a net loss of $ 3.18 million in the second quarter of its fiscal year offset, and sales more than doubled, exceeding analysts' expectations.

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (9.31% to 8.57 dollars) has reported a quarterly profit of $ 8.8 million or 12 cents per share against 2.2 million a year earlier. Sales jumped 11% to $ 97.9 million.

Boeing (-2.78% to 62.80 dollars): 787 Dreamliner, its new aircraft, for which more than 800 orders have already been registered, received Friday certification authorities in the U.S. civil aviation.The first deliveries of the aircraft, the Japanese company promised to All Nippon Airways, lagging about three years, due mainly to disruptions in the supply chain components.