Equity markets continue to remain under pressure as they consider the problem of public finances in the euro area will not be solved for the long term. The public finance crisis is dangerous for shareholders? Expert answers.
Alain Bokobza, Societe Generale, "Yes, but the leaders of the euro area are working to limit damage to the holders of the assets of the peripheral countries. We do not expect heart of contagion to countries in the euro area if credible policies to restore the overall balance in the long term public are in place. Spain seems to us on track, which should help the Spanish index. "
Patrick Moonen, ING Investment managers: "A default risk uncontrolled in Greece would be very detrimental to shareholders.The stock market has not taken a negative outcome for Greece or further deterioration of public finances of the other peripheral countries. We see no quick fix and the level of uncertainty is very high, but time is a key that would recapitalize the banking sector and other peripheral countries to stand out from Greece in a positive way. This is necessary to limit the contagion. In short, we expect that governments can save time by delaying tactics. "
Pierre Sabatier, PrimeView "Yes, and it has only just begun. Historically, we find that growth slows sharply when the public debt ratio exceeds 90% of GDP.This will happen in many countries in the coming years (due to the continued deleveraging private is far from finished), leading to sluggish growth in most industrialized countries. This environment will eventually be negative for earnings growth, which is a function of GDP growth and inflation, and consequently to the equity markets. "
Wilfrid Pham, Natixis AM: "The crisis of public finances can be potentially dangerous for the banks if not handled properly by the institutions in charge of this problem problématique.Le liquidity crisis and confidence between financial institutions could be topical.Also, global economic growth could be negatively affectée.Les equity markets have a habit of reacting rather negatively to these events. "
Ginguene Olivier, Pictet Asset Management "course, but this risk seems already built into prices depressed the shares. This is especially for holders of debt (bonds) that this risk seems more and more dangerous now. Preferred shares of large non-financial corporations, less sensitive to local conditions (higher taxes, deficit reduction, regulations, slow growth …) and more exposed to international markets. "
Philippe Mimran, UFG-LFP: "Arguably, the public finance crisis is dangerous for shareholders. It stands at the end of fiscal restraint and thus slow growth. In addition, short term, the impact of market volatility.Finally, the financial sector is particularly undermined by the risks of insolvency of the States. "
Alexandre HEZEZ, Convictions AM: "It is illusory to think that the fiscal crisis will not affect businesses. The rationalization of fiscal policy is paradoxically a very good sign for long-term growth, so for equities. Consumption depends on expected future income rather than current income. This means that any measure that will give confidence in the sustainability of the health system and pension system will be good for confidence, so good for drinking so therefore the companies for shareholders … "
Francois Chevallier, Leonardo Bank: "Yes, but the damage is probably done for the shares in favor of safe havens such as gold, stone, the Swiss franc no faxing pay day loans.The drift of public finances and State debts would be the main explanation for the extraordinarily high level of risk premiums and historically low earnings multiples. "
Matthew Grouès, Lazard Frères Gestion, "Support for peripheral countries will probably continue for some time. A fault is a very unlikely scenario. The governments of developed countries must reduce their deficits and have begun to do so. As for the impact for shareholders, depending on the method: for the moment of corporate taxation has been little hard compared to other tax and spending cuts. "
Jean-Louis Mourier, Aurel-BGC: "Not directly in the short term.It is however an overall risk that affects more clearly the banks but is likely to lead to a tightening of global financial close to what was observed following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (freezes interbank markets and bond, blocking the distribution of bank loans, negative wealth effects …) "
Nuno Teixeira, Schroders France: "Governments Greek, Portuguese and Spanish, in spite of social protest, have recently confirmed their determination to control the situation of public finances. The first two were given the means to fulfill the conditions required by the EU and the IMF to substantial assistance to enable them to meet their liquidity needs more immediate.While the problems are not resolved in the medium term, but we are heading towards voluntary efforts refinancing from the European banks, which are expected to find a more permanent solution to debt problems. "
Catherine Garrigues, Allianz GI Investments Europe: "There is no major risk to shareholders who invested in international companies non-financial, unless they have strong activity in Greece, Spain or Portugal. Companies in these countries are experiencing rising spreads and is therefore difficult to find financing at reasonable rates. "
Antoine de Salins, Groupama Asset Management: "The answer is yes in any case for investment in developed countries: the crisis feeds market volatility who do not like uncertainty, especially those that attach to the assets deemed safe … ..It also weighs so heavy on the valuation of banks changing just like those of the debts of the peripheral countries. "
Bertrand Lamielle, B * capital: "The subject deserves full attention granted to him but is now analyzed in terms risk only. But a stock market perspective, the financial sector is capable of a strong rebound when the market considers that the solutions offer the senses. "
Frédéric Jamet, State Street: "The fiscal crisis will affect primarily government bonds (in case of default or restructuring), then only the shareholders, primarily in the financial sector and other sectors.This impact is already in stock prices. "
Mauro Ratto, Pioneer Investments: "The shareholders of the CAC 40 will be affected, because banks represent a significant share of the market capitalization totale.Ceux holding U.S. securities will not. U.S. companies are not dependent on this region, and generate profits in other areas. "
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