Spanish growth at half mast

Moody's in turn should decide by the end of October on a possible downgrade Spanish now "Aa2" (the third best possible)."With significant funding needs" of the Spanish State, to cover its budget expenditures and net external debt is "one of the highest in the world" (91% of GDP), said Fitch, "the more volatile strong a negative effect on financing conditions in the market of Spain. "

But there are also internal factors in the country "risks to fiscal consolidation as a result of performance parts." The same agency Fitch has lowered Wednesday including the long-term rating of the Basque Country, one of the richest region in which it criticizes the "weak fiscal performance." Growth forecasts have been revised downwards. Wednesday, the Bank of Spain announced that the country's growth expected to slow in the third quarter, to reach an economic activity 'lackluster'.The Spanish government has also recognized that the economic growth targets it had set for 2011 and subsequent years would be "hard to reach" because of the risk of recession in the world.

Italian governance into question

Fitch also lowered the rating one notch to Italy, "A +" against "AA-" and does not see her again in the fall if the country would miss its targets for reducing the budget deficit. Fitch was the last of three major international rating agencies have not downgraded from Italy since the beginning of the debt crisis in the eurozone no fax cash advances. She explained that the high level of public debt and budgetary financing needs, combined with the low level of potential growth (the country), made in Italy especially vulnerable.The Agency is challenging the country's governance and stressed that the differences in the Parliament and the escapades of the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, help to weaken the ruling coalition.

Belgium heckled by Dexia

Belgium is also in sight. The agenceMoody's said it was considering lowering its rating, currently at "Aa1", the second best possible. The agency cited three reasons: the crisis in the euro area, concerns for economic growth and the possibility of additional support to the banking system, particularly in establishing Franco-Belgian Dexia.

Another European country in turmoil, Portugal, has been confirmed its rating of "BBB-" (the last before falling into the category of "speculative") by Fitch, which continued on negative watch at least until the end of the year.Standard & Poor's, confirmed Tuesday the rating "BBB-" from Portugal, while maintaining it as a negative outlook. Portugal, the third country in the eurozone after Greece and Ireland to receive international financial assistance, is facing new economic challenges that undermine his efforts to clean up its public accounts. Progress in implementing the program of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and its budget for 2012 will be crucial.

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After the capitulation market in recent days, many investors are wondering whether it is time to return the purchase. Beyond a simple technical rebound, the chances of quick recovery courses are limited for the simple reason that the current stock market is in some ways more fragile than in 2008. Signs of slowdown are multiplying in the United States, Europe could enter recession in the coming months, and the deterioration in manufacturing activity in China shows that the theory of decoupling between emerging and rich countries no longer holds the ramp. Response capacity of government to stimulate consumption are practically nil, and the effect of accompanying policies of central banks has reached its limits.The current crisis comes mainly from the usual market issues related to the level of market valuation or the correction of excesses after a period of intense speculation. The epicenter of the crisis is now in the euro area, with governments overwhelmed by the level of public debt and unable to agree on the management of their common currency. The solution to these difficulties lies in the hands of "political" and not in the trading rooms and in business. This is what the operators despair!

• The core business is a real force that

The recovery will be difficult, but much of the bad news began to be integrated into the course. The precipitous decline of the indices shows that the Exchange has already taken a good step ahead of the crisis.A CAC 40 to 2800 points means, for example, that investors expect an increase, not corporate profits, but a 30% drop in profits in 2012. This pessimism is starting to become excessive, especially for industrial groups, such as Air Liquide, Schneider Electric and Michelin, a strong presence in emerging markets where business slows but does not decrease instant personal loans guaranteed. The same goes for business as L'Oreal, Essilor International and Pernod Ricard, which have strong brands and where margins are not challenged. The treatment of more defensive companies, such as France Telecom, Sanofi, or GDF Suez, also reached its limits.These values ​​offer attractive yields of between 10 to 6%.

• The plight of the shareholders of the banks could come to an end

In three months, the market value of the three largest French banks, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas, has been halved. This collapse is comparable to the fall in prices occurred after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Investors have punished the weak provisions made in the accounts to meet the commitments of banks in the peripheral countries of the euro area and a general loss of confidence in respect of institutions in the euro area. Far from scaring the market, the rumor of a possible entry of the state in their capital in the form of preference shares is now likely to reassure investors.10 to 15 billion euros to recapitalize matter which it would lead to a "dilution" of shareholders limited. After the destruction of 50 billion capitalization in the summer, the amounts mentioned are already largely taken into account by the markets. Bank stocks will certainly remain under pressure, but the plight of their shareholders might come to an end.

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"The beginning of the year was difficult," says Thierry Falque-Pierrotin. Involved, the lack of major sporting event like the World Cup football last year which had boosted sales of televisions. "Conditions should remain still difficult for some time," added the CEO.According to GfK, sales of consumer electronic products fell 11.3% in the first half in Western Europe.

The distributor hopes to continue to succeed at the game perfecting his model. "We are professionals and will further improve in-store assisted sales and other services. We install, for example, listening zones in our stores to test the helmets, "says general manager. The company is also continuing successfully its growth in the kitchen. Market entry in 2007, Darty offers these products in 21 stores of 223 and plans to do the same in another 11 outlets by the end of the year. "As in our other segments, we want to offer good price and good service in the kitchen. This strategy has already allowed us to gain market share ", says Thierry Falque-Pierrotin.

With the crisis of government debt in the euro area, to which Europeans are struggling to meet, investors are increasingly worried about the strength of the European banking system. The situation has become such an outflow of Greece in the euro area is openly discussed by senior politicians in Germany and the Netherlands. In exchange, banking stocks suffered a pounding in order. Since the beginning of the year, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale have lost between a "large" third and 60% of their value.On the first day of September, the losses of the three titles are respectively 17.45%, 22.33% and 27.69%.

Analysts relativize

Especially, a controversy arose in late August on the valuation of debt securities by certain Greek French banks. The IASB, the body responsible for setting international accounting standards, criticized some financial institutions are not named, have valued their claims on the Greek state in ways internal development rather than by using market prices. Which would have allowed banks to spend less severe impairment in their accounts. Even if they have applied a discount of 21% on government debt they have in their accounts, the three banks still have about six billion euros of Greek sovereign debt.

Some analysts relativize however, the scope of the surveillance on June 15 the three French banks by Moody's by saying that the other two rating agencies, Standard & Poor's (S & P) and Fitch attributed to them have lower grades. Crédit Agricole SA is now rated "Aa1" by Moody's, and BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are rated "Aa2". S & P assigned the notes 'AA' with a negative outlook to BNP and "A +" with stable outlook to Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale. Fitch is on his side to "AA-" with stable outlook to BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole, and "A +" with stable outlook for Societe Generale.

Few economists have criticized the ad. Only the Swiss investor Marc Faber, known for his pessimism, has won the CNBC: "The plan announced a new failure of Keynesian stimulus package of public interventions and depraved," carried away on CNBC. "And when the time is to reduce public deficits …No, really this plan is a joke! "A lone voice: combining cuts employers' costs and expenditure target, the plan seems to be welcomed by the community of economists.

With this plan, "unemployment will be lower in 2012 than it would have been without that nothing is done," admits conservative Heidi Shierholz in the New York Times. Economists differ on the impact of quantified measures presented by Barack Obama. Optimistic, Heidi Shierolz, the Economic Policy Institute, predicts 4.3 million jobs created, including 1.6 million by the simple extension of existing measures. The Department of Economic Analysis calculates Moody's for its part that the plan should create a total of 1 Online payday loans.9 million jobs.

Growth side, Obama's plan "would allow the U.S. economy continue to grow at a minimum," said Steve Blitz, an economist at ITG, quoted by the Financial Times.Economists are almost all agree that the billions of spending will have an impact on growth. But which one? It all depends on measures that will stand the test of Congress, where Democrats and Republicans will have to find a compromise.

"If a miracle occurs …"

"If a miracle occurs and the intact plane passes this stage, U.S. growth could exceed 3% in 2012" against approximately 2% forecast by economists without a recovery plan, advance Rudy Narva, an economist at Societe Generale. But after blocking observed about the debate on the debt cap, observers remain cautious. The difficult economic situation, however, could force both sides to compromise.

"The stakes are enormous for those Americans who are unemployed for too long, and for America as a whole," says Mohamed El-Erian, head of the investment fund Pimco."Hopefully, elected officials in Washington will be up."

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200 billion euros in recapitalization

Asked about the idea of ​​requiring banks assessment of sovereign debt in the market, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, said Monday that "it was forcing an open door to say that many banks Europe would not survive. " Especially since the doubts about the ability of Italy to keep its austerity plan and that of France to absorb a succession of shocks without further tighten the screws are becoming more vivid.The CDS on the two countries, these insurance policies that protect a non-payment, Monday reached a record high.

Under these conditions, the crusade of the new Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, against the underfunding of the European banking sector is gaining credibility. According to the Financial Times, its equipment valued at 200 billion euros on equity gap for the entire industry. The chairman of BNP Paribas, Michel Pebereau, said Monday: "The stress tests in Europe (…) suggest that it is not so obvious that today the European banking system as a whole may need to be recapitalized.Some banks, no doubt. "Boss BPCE, and past president of the French Banking Federation (FBF), François Perol, said he did not think" that (statement of Christine Lagarde) was referring to French banks. "

On the other side of the Atlantic, the signals are no more reassuring. The disappointing U.S. employment published Friday that result in maintaining a high unemployment rate to 9.1%, have cast a chill on the market. The same day, Washington expressed its willingness to prosecute seventeen banks for selling its agencies refinancing, without the correct information, asset-backed mortgages, subprime. The legal battle casts a new threat to the sector.

Meanwhile, the announcement in late morning, a confidence index of entrepreneurs and consumers in the euro area fell sharply in August may have contributed to this turnaround.Throughout the European Union, the confidence of business leaders and consumers has declined even more significantly, by 5 percentage points to 97.3 points, against 102.3 points in July.

The business sentiment index in the euro zone, published separately by Brussels, also fell for the sixth straight month to $ 0.07 against 0.44 points in July.

Yesterday on Wall Street indices ended the session up 2.2% for the Dow and the Nasdaq 3.3% driven by the consumption figures in the United States. Asian markets followed suit with their American counterparts. In Tokyo, the Nikkei was up 1.22% to 8959.75 points while unemployment is again on the rise for the second consecutive month in July and that retail sales fell by 0.3% from June

The correct orientation of financial markets has boosted oil prices.Asian markets, the Nymex is trading at 87.49 dollars, he finished in 87.27 dollars in New York, up $ 1.90 from Friday. Brent crude traded him to 112.17 dollars.

On the front of the foreign exchange market, the euro fell slightly against the dollar, below $ 1.45, to 1.4392 dollar.

Fears about the health of banks

The day before, call to order by Christine Lagarde bound for European banks has prompted European leaders to defend the institutions of the old continent. "European banks are much better capitalized today than they were a year ago. This was confirmed by stress tests conducted in July, "assured the Commissioner of Economic Affairs Olli Rehn.

But on Tuesday, it was the turn of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to throw fuel on the fire.The IASB believes that the provisions made by banks and European insurers about their exposure to Greek debt have been dumped, reports the Financial Times. According to the newspaper, BNP Paribas and CNP Assurances are particularly concerned by this risk. BNP Paribas was down 0.45% in mid-session at 34.24 euros and CNP Assurances does not earn more than 0.20% to 12.35 euros.

When asked, BNP Paribas said that it had "pre-funded its exposure to Greece in full agreement with its auditors and the competent authorities, according to the plan drawn up by the Union on July 21" to help Greece, according to a spokesman .The bank had said on August 2 had provisioned 534 million euros to compensate for lost value of Greek bonds.

For its part, the CNP said it was "in line with the agreement of July 21," which provided the threshold of 21%, "validated by our listeners no teletrack payday loan."

Also Tuesday, the president of MEDEF, Laurence Parisot, in turn criticized the words of Christine Lagarde, saying his statement "incomprehensible. European banks are strong. And for French banks, we must bear in mind that we have banks among the strongest in the world, "said the boss of bosses of Europe 1.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also generally lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012, leaving unchanged the forecast of Germany for the current year.

Still on macroeconomic indicators will be out today. Before trading, the markets did not take umbrage at the publication of a fall, but strong early sales of new homes in the second quarter in France.

Are also expected in mid-day figures for business failures.

Overseas, the index of consumer confidence, the housing (Case-Shiller) and the minutes of the last Fed meeting will also facilitate the session.

Arcelor-Mittal is growing in Australia

On the corporate side, Arcelor-Mittal (0.45% to 14.41 euros) is about to take control of Australia's Macarthur, world's largest producer of pulverized coal, in association with the American Peabody Energy . The tender offer made by the European steel amounts to 5.16 billion dollars.Macarthur's management finally yielded to the new offer revised upwards by the Arcelor-Peobody tandem: it is 16 Australian dollars (11.8 euros) per share, against A $ 15.50 earlier.

The semi-annual publications are now many, especially among heavyweights rating. Note that the Y real, Havas, Bouygues, Colas, Vinci, Bollore, NRJ Group and Devoteam detail their half-year after the market closes.

In addition, Ipsen (8.62% to 24.05 euros) announced revenues up 5.3% in the first half.He also announced an upward adjustment of its sales forecast for 2011 in favor of a less pronounced decline than expected sales in general practice.

Hermès International climbed 1.86% to 263.35 euros before preparing to publiecation on Wednesday, excellent interim results, widely anticipated by the market after the increase last month by the group's growth forecasts sales and profitability. From January to June, sales of luxury brand famous for its bags and silk scarves were up 22% to EUR 1.3 billion, more than expected by analysts, according to data released in July .

The French shipowner CMA-CGM said that 2011 should be "a good year" for the group, claiming to have already funded the bulk of its investments for 2011 and 2012.The company said to have $ 1.7 billion (1.17 billion euros) in cash at the end of June, July and have paid $ 550 million bond line, while press reports evoked ago few weeks of possible cash flow problems.

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Operation must! The government will this week attempt to convince the financial markets on its ability to control public finances. François Fillon unveiled late Wednesday afternoon in the presence of Baroin and Valerie Pécresse, the Ministers of Economy and Budget, the new conservation measures for France to retain investor confidence and its " AAA. "

The government enters the final stretch trade-offs. François Fillon and Nicolas Sarkozy meet to sort the list of suggestions made last week by Bercy (and amended by the relevant ministries) and begin to remove some tracks.Then the president and prime minister Wednesday to finalize the measures to adopt.

The government did not release the extent of the plan, but it evokes an effort between 5 and 10 billion, and a trend towards the top. The turn of the screw will break down between savings on public spending and further cuts in tax and social niches.

On this last point, the government does not start from scratch. The measures that were passed in the fall (tax on marriages, on the solar panels, niches plane, etc.). Will yield 2.4 billion in 2012. But we'll have to do much more. There is another month, the government did not request such an effort to households and businesses. He planned to take samples of only 3 billion. With 2.4 billion already in the pipeline, the step to take was minimal.But since the degradation of "AAA" rating from the United States, France finds itself under pressure from the markets. Even if it borrows at low levels (2.74% at ten years), a sign of confidence that it continues to generate, France must do everything to protect his note. For if it were lowered, the state should borrow at higher rates. According to the Court of Auditors, an increase of one point would increase the debt burden of $ 2 billion the first year. To prevent a runaway cost of debt, the government should not deviate from its route.

Increase in the social package

Paris has pledged to reduce its public deficit to 5.7% of GDP in 2011 and 4.6% in 2012. This objective was particularly complicated since the Insee reported zero growth in the second quarter. Bercy forecasts an increase of 2% of GDP in 2011 and 2.25% in 2012 now seem too optimistic.On average, economists expect now on a 1.4% growth next year. However, less growth means less tax revenue and more spending for the state, the social security and local authorities. Without necessarily announcing Wednesday a revised its growth forecasts, the government is obliged, if he wants to keep its deficit targets, to take austerity measures …

Increase in the social package for businesses, new plane and lower overall ceiling of niches, penknife devices ultramarine and real estate … the tracks are not lacking. The government also provides measures for the social security system, not to mention taxing very high incomes as suggested on Wednesday, Maurice Levy, president of Publicis and the Association of Private Enterprises (Afep), in an article in Le Monde ."We need efforts that will be requested to the French are fairly distributed," assured the same day Valerie Pécresse on Europe 1. The measures adopted will be included in budget 2012.

France can she get into the spiral of Greece, where budget cuts exacerbate the recession, which in turn widens the gap? A priori not. This year, increases in taxes, resulting from the measures passed in the fall, reached $ 12 billion. Without destabilizing the country.

Real estate: the cropped Scellier

Before the crisis, Bercy was considering reducing benefits. The pressure is greatest.

• Law Scellier

The niche Scellier reduces its tax by investing in rental real estate. It was expected that the tax reduction equal to 22% of the investment in 2011 reaches 18% in 2012.The reduction could fall to 15%.

• Ready to zero +

There are plans to reintroduce a means test for the loan (PTZ), in order to focus on vulnerable households.

• Capital gains on real estate

The capital gain on the sale of a principal residence will remain tax exempt. For other assets, the gain is taxed at 19%, plus 12.3% social. However, there is a reduction (10% per year after five years in prison) that applies to the capital gain and will disappear for undeveloped land for building. It is also the question of decline (eg 5%) for other goods.Another track: the system of reduction of the gain disappears for the payment of social security contributions.

Niches: plane and down the ceiling

The tax loopholes will undergo a new movement of the plane after the last year which affected 22 devices (Scellier, actions overseas, the tax credit for environmental equipment in the house). The rate of tax reduction was reduced by 10%: a rate of 50% was increased to 45%, a rate of 25% to 22% … The measure, however, has yet to be felt, because the first plane applies to the income tax paid in 2012, sitting on the revenues of 2011. The government planned to meet the plane in 2011 (eg 15%) and pass a new tax on plane sitting on the revenues of 2012.
Widely used devices, such as overseas benefits or tax credits for equipment of the house will still be trimmed.MPs want all the niches are planed. Others will disappear. In addition, the overall ceiling of niches, set at 6% of income over 18,000 euros, will be lowered.

Companies: rising social package

Social package, paid by companies on the profit-sharing and employee savings, should be increased from 6% to 8%. Expected gain: 400 million euros. Since its inception in 2009, the government increased the fee by 2 points every year! Systems loss carry-on prior and subsequent, which limit the corporate tax should be reduced. They benefit primarily to large companies but the government wants to rebalance the tax burden with the small. The carry-back would
limited to one year. And to carry forward losses from the profits would be capped.In Germany, the losses charged can not exceed 60% of the profit. However, the idea of ​​limiting the deductibility of loan interest is difficult to implement.

Tax on very wealthy households

The government pledged in the spring to tax high incomes, and a working group must report its findings in the fall. Two tracks are at this stage on the table to non-deductible from corporate income tax payments "extravagant" or create a new tax paid by very wealthy households. The latter option holds the rope in the government because it has the support of parliamentarians. Gilles Carrez, the rapporteur of the budget UMP
in the Assembly, propose to tax at a rate of 1% or 2% revenues exceeding one million euros per year. But Peter wants Méhaignerie the new tax applies from 150,000 euros to 200,000 euros in annual income for a couple.The lively debates ahead!

Other tracks: capital gains on the hot seat

Gilles Carrez wants the taxation of life insurance is carried over the water each year on their earnings potential, while households are now taxed when withdrawn at a variable rate depending on the length of detention ( 7.5% after eight years). Another idea: adjust the taxation of life insurance, whether it is placed in shares or products without risk. The UMP Jérôme Chartier wants to create an additional ceiling on tax loopholes, reducing to 50% of tax due from the advantage of niches. But Bercy is not favorable. Finally, many parliamentarians call for the removal of reliefs on capital gains from stocks and bonds (third year in excess of five years from 2012).

Italy

Rome adopted Friday a drastic austerity plan to recover 45.5 billion euros by 2013, based in particular on tax increases, massive loss of seats of local administrations and combination.

For the first time, a solidarity tax on the highest incomes was introduced, up to 5% for incomes over 90,000 euros per year and 10% in excess of 150,000.Parliament had already voted in July an austerity plan of 48 billion euros over three years. But Italy has no choice its massive debt (120% of GDP) in place at the forefront of possible victims of the debt crisis. The surge of his bond yields to record levels last week had forced the ECB to redeem itself from the Italian debt in exchange for strict conditions on the hardening of austerity.

Sunday, the president of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, welcomed these measures "critical" for Italy, but also "for the euro area as a whole."The Europeans know that, after the bailout for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the fall of Italy would push the euro into unknown territory paydayloan.

Spain

Seen as another weak link by investors, Madrid about to vote in late August a tightening of discipline, to bring back 4.9 billion euros in additional funds. This new turn of the screw completes the plan adopted in 2010 drastically to save 65 billion over three years.This time, it is health insurance and big business that would be utilized.

Greece

Athens, whose budget woes have catalyzed the debt crisis, the end of June adopted an austerity plan providing for severe savings of 28.4 billion euros in 2015 (divided equally between tax increases and decreases public expenditure) and a wave of privatizations to bring 50 billion euros. This was the condition imposed by the IMF and the European partners to unlock their help.

Portugal

Lisbon, also forced a bailout, wants to go beyond the expectations of international donors. To counter any slippage in public finances, the government announced in July drastic measures: special tax of 50% of the fourteenth month of incomes above the minimum wage, increase in VAT from 6 to 23% …These cuts are in addition to a package (15% increase in transportation rates, primary school closures …) has already been decided despite their unpopularity.

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BBM is a service available only on BlackBerry brand phones, allowing users to exchange messages for free via the Internet, and not through the telephone network. Messages can be exchanged only if both corresponding to communicate their personal code (PIN) before.The interception of messages by a third party, or by the police is complicated.

The principle of BBM is similar to that of SMS, to the last detail BBM messages that cost nothing. One argument that has made the BlackBerry smartphone's favorite British adolescents (37%), according to a study cited by the Guardian. For The Urban Blog Mashup, taken by the Telegraph, BBM is very popular among young 'for three reasons: it's fast, it's free, and unlike Facebook or Twitter, the messages exchanged are completely private. " .

"The gangs have been using BlackBerry for organizing the riots"

"The device, previously reserved for businessmen and politicians, are now the preserve of thugs and young (…) through this application," says the Telegraph.The conservative daily notes and Mark Duggan, the young man whose death was the cause of the night of riots in Tottenham, had sent a message via BBM to his girlfriend shortly before being shot by police. "The message said: 'The cops follow me,'" wrote the daily.

"The gangs have been using BlackBerry for organizing the riots," says the Telegraph. A Guardian journalist is in the same direction, explaining that "many sources (him) confirmed that BBM, inciting to raid the town of Enfield, was heavily circulated on the BlackBerry network Sunday early afternoon noon ". The journalist claims to have read other messages about plundering six other districts in north London on Monday night. "There is no doubt that BBM is used to organize the violence."

The BBC website, he does not deny the use of BBM in the events of the weekend, minimizing its impact."While smartphones have helped those who participated in the riots, they were certainly not convinced those who were not interested to join rallies," writes the site based on the analysis of Dr. Chris Greer, Professor of Sociology and Criminology at City University in London. For its part, RIM, the manufacturer of BlackBerry phones, said Monday in the evening he would "cooperate fully with the Interior Ministry and the British police force."

British police monitors Twitter users

Scotland Yard warned on Monday that it would arrest any person to become involved in urban riots on Twitter. "Provocative and inappropriate messages were posted on Twitter" during the weekend, said the British police.The Times cites several messages such as "Everyone at Tottenham n **** the police, I hope that there will be a dead tonight" (the message has since been deleted).

For its part, the Telegraph has collected pictures of rioters and that of a young man posing in front of several games he had stolen during the violence. "Do you know? Send us an email if you have any information, "wrote the site, without specifying for what purpose he seeks to know the identity of these people.