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Banks back into the market turmoil

The respite will not last long: after a week of relative calm, the European banking sector has again stumbled in the stock market Monday. Britain's RBS, French Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank or German for example, have dropped out of respectively 12.32%, 8.64% and 7.53%. Even the champion of Frankfurt stock exchange now weighs less than half its book value! This increased tension is supplied from Friday with a new bundle of anxiety on the macroeconomic front. Investors fear that gives that summer debt crisis in Europe and the United States against a backdrop of slowing growth, worsening. The European foot-dragging on the Greek case illustrates the difficulty of political reassurance. Terms of private sector contribution in the second rescue of Greece, to be completed at the root end of August and early September, and still raises many questions.The debates are multiplying on the accounting treatment of such assistance, and the right level required for impairment of securities Greek, while the economy sinks further into crisis.

200 billion euros in recapitalization

Asked about the idea of ​​requiring banks assessment of sovereign debt in the market, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, said Monday that "it was forcing an open door to say that many banks Europe would not survive. " Especially since the doubts about the ability of Italy to keep its austerity plan and that of France to absorb a succession of shocks without further tighten the screws are becoming more vivid.The CDS on the two countries, these insurance policies that protect a non-payment, Monday reached a record high.

Under these conditions, the crusade of the new Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, against the underfunding of the European banking sector is gaining credibility. According to the Financial Times, its equipment valued at 200 billion euros on equity gap for the entire industry. The chairman of BNP Paribas, Michel Pebereau, said Monday: "The stress tests in Europe (…) suggest that it is not so obvious that today the European banking system as a whole may need to be recapitalized.Some banks, no doubt. "Boss BPCE, and past president of the French Banking Federation (FBF), François Perol, said he did not think" that (statement of Christine Lagarde) was referring to French banks. "

On the other side of the Atlantic, the signals are no more reassuring. The disappointing U.S. employment published Friday that result in maintaining a high unemployment rate to 9.1%, have cast a chill on the market. The same day, Washington expressed its willingness to prosecute seventeen banks for selling its agencies refinancing, without the correct information, asset-backed mortgages, subprime. The legal battle casts a new threat to the sector.

Redemption of Infront, Number 2 worldwide sports rights

The maneuvers began in the closed world of corporate marketing of sports rights. The European investment fund Bridgepoint acquired Infront, the world number two industry for about 600 million euros. Infront company formed ten years ago by Robert Louis-Dreyfus and Klaus Jacobs on the ruins of the Kirch empire, was put on sale by the heirs of the two captains of industry.

The market for sports rights is held by three giants. IMG, the world, which weighs about 1.5 billion euros of turnover, is owned by Forstmann Little and the fund would be about to be sold. The world number two with Infront is 600 million euros in turnover with, the key, an estimated gross operating margin from 10% to 15%. It beats out number three, Sportfive, bought in 2006 by the Lagardère Group for 865 million euros.Sportfive is clearly slowing, and in 2010, its activity dropped by 23% to 396 million euros.

"Infront's activity is divided into four more or less equivalent. Football with the rights of the German, Italian League (Lega Calcio) and the rights of big clubs like AC Milan, Schalke 04 and Werder Bremen. Then there are winter sports, such as [events of] the International Ski Federation, or [of] the International Federation of ice hockey. And summer sports such as volleyball, handball and basketball in China. Finally, Infront carries the audiovisual production of major events in human as well as World Cup football and the championship of France Ligue 1, "said Robert Xavier, a partner at Bridgepoint in Paris no checking account payday advance.

For an investment fund, Infront has some nice features.About 80% of its turnover is earned from January 1 and the rate of renewal of contracts with rights holders to 90%. In addition, the fund has this job because it has the past five years the Spanish company Dorna, which manages the Grand Prix motorcycle.

Disintermediation

The global market for sports rights is estimated at $ 121 billion in 2011 and that of media rights and sponsorship is $ 56 billion. If the market is still growing at a rate of 4 to 5% a year, it faces a disintermediation. "The leading licensors such as UEFA, FIFA, the International Olympic Committee have the means to directly sell their rights," says Robert Xavier.

However, Bridgepoint estimates that there are significant growth drivers for Infront. Geographically first.Very presence in Europe and Asia, Infront has yet to conquer Great Britain and South America, a continent with very dynamic football World Cup 2014 and Olympics 2016 in Brazil.

The progressive development of human-related internet sports is another area of ​​growth. Finally, Bridgepoint does not hide that he may run when the throw-in sports rights held by Sportfive far as the African Cup of Nations.

Xavier Bertrand: "There is no question of fatalism"

LE FIGARO – The decline in unemployment in the early years seems to have forgotten. Are you discouraged by the new bad number?

Xavier Bertrand – Unfortunately, it is in the same line as the previous two months. Not surprisingly, with growth at 0%, not to mention that July is traditionally bad (9 increases in the last 11 years). But this does not detract from my belief that unemployment will go back down. Social plans are declining. Redundancies do not go back. The acting, which is always a precursor, is good. Job creation is strong even though they are largely absorbed by the increase in the labor force. And new measures we have taken in recent months, including learning, will begin to bear fruit. Nadine Morano, we hope to be many more such apprentices in September.There is no question of fatalism.

Where are we on assisted contracts?

On assisted contracts, CAE 222 435 (non-profit sector) were signed in late July, there are still 200,000 to be filled by the end of the year next CIE (businesses) there are still 34,000 of the 62,000 expected this year. Many assisted contracts co-funded by the departments will also be released in the second half. I also expect a significant commitment of councils and they play the game totally! Gard, where I was Friday, has proposed assisted contracts to 2.1% of recipients of RSA, it increased to 10%, which is our national goal, it would make 1500 people out of unemployment! Or it would cost the department 411 euros per month, against 467 for the current RSA.

Employment center director must change and adopt a more decentralized operation no later than the end of the year.Should speed things up?

We can not wait until the end of the year. Each agency will have a "drawing rights" on training, will be delegated more funding, allowing it to be much more responsive. The administrative part will be lighter with fewer indicators to inform. I remember the beginning of September the social partners and all those involved for me they confirm their agreement for the implementation of this new roadmap.

You loaded earlier in the year the sub-prefects to ensure the "connection" between job seekers and business leaders who, in the same area, have difficulty recruiting. This gives does it work?

Where there is a total momentum, the results are undeniable, even if it is too early to give figures.This coordination also involves the activation of the "local public service employment" in a pool which includes employment center, local missions, houses of employment, communities, business leaders … It's not necessarily spectacular, but it's effective. I meet again all the sub-prefects of France in September to set up action plans in each employment area, and next week I will hold a video conference with regional directors of employment center and the regional prefects quick cash.

A new device, providing better compensation and enhanced monitoring to retrenched, will be in effect on September 1. But it is the purpose of fixed term and temporary employment that increase.Is it necessary to invent devices for these cases?

We will be attentive to the suggestions of the social partners, the Prime Minister receives these days.

The budget for the job will he planed, given the savings measures announced Wednesday by François Fillon?

Tradeoffs are made by the president and the prime minister: he will be fully preserved in 2011 as in 2012.

Is it time to reduce the Employer contribution rebates on overtime, which amounts to increasing labor costs?

For the employer, the trigger, it is not the exemptions is the fact of having more work. And I remember that employee side, the logic of buying power is fully preserved, the changes will not remove one euro cent for employees in overtime.

The tax on very high incomes will be 3%, from 500,000 euros. The government will leave there to tighten the criteria, as part of the majority want?

Parliament will have to discuss, this is normal. Simply ask the question shows that the principle of this tax, which I defended from the beginning, is now widely accepted. The demand for justice is understood by all. For the same reason, I support the approximation of taxes on labor and heritage announcements Wednesday also go in this direction.

The complementary health are likely to raise their rates after being taxed more than one billion additional …

Nothing have to. A number of them are private companies that show significant benefits and therefore have room to maneuver.It is indeed a tax on insurance contracts, not the insured, in contrast to an increase in user fees such that we did not want.

The anti-deficit plan provides ten times the revenue increases that additional savings. Can we make more efforts in that direction?

We remove the tax loopholes. There is no general increase in taxes, as advocated by the Socialists and the way they do it is a real brand in the local communities they lead. This would be a policy that would break the prospects for growth. But it's true, France is a country with a high level of public spending and taxes. Pension reform, the non-replacement of an official two … reduce public spending.I am confident it will go much further in the coming years, do not hesitate to come back some expenses by asking systematically question: what people really value for money? The efficacy and justice must be the two criteria of the expense.

Box: Internet may not be unlimited

Surf the Internet at home while monitoring its consumption. The 64% of French people connected to broadband Internet via a box, are not used. Yet they should consider this option. According to an information site Owni, operators in considering the effect of limiting access to the fixed Internet to deal with a network saturation.

The thinking has already begun by the operators, with the French telecoms and consumer groups. The idea of ​​a limitation of the offers is suggested in a paper dated July 21, which summarizes the ways to implement for better consumer information. Attached to this document is an example of a table summarizing the supposed best offers.It shows, by type of household equipment ADLS (zone bundled, unbundled or very high speed), the boxes in which the operator must notify the "IP flow up to the offer," "the ceiling of consumption" and the consequences of exceeding the ceiling and a limit of downloads per session.

As the mobile

Operators could then be applied to the fixed Internet connection limits already in force on smartphones, which also apply to the sector to be regularly singled out by consumer associations. On equipped mobile Internet, the connection itself is seen as limitless is slowed or blocked depending on the offers, beyond 500 megabytes (MB) or 2 gigabytes (GB).The operator then offers to large consumers to buy a new block of bytes.

The reason given for the application of these methods is also fixes the same as for mobile phones: network saturation. In the July 21 document, a paragraph that mentions the need to ensure "continuity of service for all users, not financially penalize heavy users" alludes.

French operators and want to learn from the Internet Service Providers UK and U.S. have already implemented this system. United States, Time Warner, Comcast, Verizon and AT & T offer a connection often capped at 250 GB per month, customers finding themselves obliged to monitor their connection counter to avoid unpleasant surprises.

"Unacceptable"

If operators say consumer groups adhere to their thinking, the most virulent of these, UFC Que Choisir, insane. Edouard Barreiro, in charge of digital within the association, cited by Owni said already that "this decision is unacceptable." According to him, "limit on the fixed Internet has no economic justification, he says. Fixed costs do not vary with consumption of users, or very little. Operators are seeking to extort money from both sides: first, content providers like Google and consumers. Traders feel all powerful. " Arcep, the telecoms regulator, was also described this change as "bizarre".

In turn, a spokesman for Orange, Jean-Marie Culpin, stick to his guns. "There are some packages on which we could put the thresholds," says he Owni.But he admits that this strategy is for "people who download movies all day" but is instead "an unacceptable impact if more customers." Proof is that reflection is not yet stopped.

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Gold flies to 1900 dollars per ounce

As a new wave of panic in the markets, gold continues its flight. The precious metal reached Friday morning a new record in Asia, to 1,837.50 dollars per ounce. Yesterday, it reached 1826.10 dollars in session after crossing the threshold to higher novelty of 1815 dollars.

Investors, who had turned away the metal shelter last week, returned to him massively in favor of strengthening fears of a slowdown in the global economy. The markets, already worried by the growth in the euro area in the second trilmestre were put ashore by a round of disappointing economic indicators published in the U.S. yesterday.The jobless claims rose last week, inflation accelerated, home resales have relapsed in July, the index measuring manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area for the month of August was collapsed.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have heightened these concerns by scaling back its global growth forecast for 2011 and considering that the United States and the euro area "were dangerously close to recession."

This context reinforces the gold safe haven par excellence.In its wake, the yen and Swiss franc, other safe havens, also climbed while U.S. bond yields fell to 10 years to their lowest level ever, acclaimed by investors panicked.

"Gold has not finished with its strong ascent"

"There is a market perception that the economic environment becomes dangerous, and a growing sense that politicians fail to meet the challenges of the crisis, the United States and Europe," observed Ross Norman, analyst at broker specializing Sharps Pixley."Gold is not only a safe haven asset in crisis but is also a clear barometer of market confidence, and leap today lets see the prospect of a possible second economic crisis after the 2008 potentially more damaging, "he added.

If the pessimism persists, metal king could therefore quickly reach 1900 dollars per ounce. "Gold has not finished with its strong rise," warns Simon Denham, Head of Capital Spreads.

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New Storm on the Paris Stock Exchange

New slump in the Paris Bourse. At the close on Wednesday, the CAC 40 index showed a loss of 5.45% to 3002.99 points and manages to maintain a narrow margin the psychological threshold of 3000 points. In a volume of trade of 6 billion euros, the volatility was again very strong.

Like him, other European indices loosen: the FTSE-100 index in London lost 3.05% to 5007.16 points at closing. The Dax in Frankfurt tumbles 5.13% to 5613.42 points after falling 6% during the session. The index featured the Milan Stock Exchange, the FTSE Eb, closed Wednesday on a drop of 6.65% at 14,676 points, its lowest level since April 2009. The Madrid Stock Exchange closed on a fall of 5.49%.

The banking sector collapses

All markets are penalized by the banking sector, while Greece is planning to expand its exchange program to include obligations of the securities in the longer term, which penalizes first private creditors. In Paris, Societe Generale gives 14.47 (after a 20.83% drop in session) to 22.18 euros, Crédit Agricole 11.81% to 6.07 euros, BNP Paribas 9.47% to 35.61 euros and Natixis 9.11% to 2.68 euros.

Banks have suffered rumors of degradation of the note of France, while Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poors reiterated that the AAA rating of the Hexagon was accompanied by a stable outlook online cash advance. Even Bercy denies "formally" the rumors of degradation.But the surprise meeting convened by Nicolas Sarkozy interrupted his holiday to deal with several ministers the theme of economic and financial crisis has rekindled investor concerns.

Also in Europe, the divisions between countries are delaying the implementation of the rescue plan agreed in June In addition, fears of renewed extension of the debt crisis in Italy explains the new fall. The market is concerned about the ability of Italian banks to refinance.

Industrial production declined in France

As on Wall Street, markets been unable to continue the strong rebound in the day that followed the speech by U.S. Federal Reserve.The latter, however, assured that it would extend its monetary policy ultra-accommodating while maintaining zero interest rates until at least mid-2013 and exploring other measures to support the U.S. economy, which will probably end detailed August, at the final communiqué of the U.S. central bank. But the Fed confirmed that the U.S. economy is in trouble, especially since the deterioration in the debt rating of American long-term.

For the economist Nicolas Bouzou, the previous day had already not reassuring:

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Axa was less affected by Greece that the banks

A nice trading day for Axa. The title of the insurer took 4% to 10 o'clock Thursday morning while the CAC 40 is given a little air, with an increase of 0.45%. Investors welcomed the good half done by the insurer that has quadrupled (324%) profit to 3.99 billion euros.

This performance is significantly higher than the expectations of analysts who had expected an average net profit of 3.7 billion. But Axa has mostly benefited from a favorable base effect. The increase in net income is in fact supported by exceptional gains of 1.44 billion euros from the sale of the 15.6% of Veolia capital of the life insurer China Life Taikang and the sale of its New Zealand and Australia."In this environment (of European debt crisis), we publish the results are good, satisfactory and show Axa's fine," said CFO Gerald Harlin, during a conference call.

Confirmation of the Plan 2015

The insurer stands in relation to banks about the impact of the Greek crisis on its accounts no faxing payday loans. While the financial cost runs into hundreds of millions for BNP Paribas (850 million), Crédit Agricole (650 million) and 395 million to Société Générale, Axa has placed "only" 92 million euros in provisions for impairment assets in its bond portfolio of the Greek state.

In contrast, exposure of the insurer in Italy, estimated at 6 billion euros against 300 million for Greece, is much more important."We are confident that Italy is absolutely the means to repay its debt, simply that the European institutions give a stronger signal of support towards Italy for the markets calm down," said Denis Duverne, the deputy CEO of Axa Business on BFM radio.

If the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain because of the turmoil in financial markets, the CEO of Axa, Henri de Castries is "confident". It provides Axa is on track to achieve its 2015 targets.

Lessons learned from the accident of the AF 447

The report was eagerly awaited by the victims' families as well as the entire aviation industry. The Bureau of Investigation and Analysis (BEA) released Friday its third report on the crash investigation of Flight 447, the first after the study of black boxes fished in the spring in the South Atlantic. This report confirms all the information published on Thursday evening lefigaro.fr. It is a mistake of the crew due to icing of the Pitot probes that resulted in the dropping of the device and fall into the ocean. The report describes a crew where responsibilities were not clearly defined between the two co-pilots and in the absence of the captain gone to rest pay day loans. At first the captain, there has been no "explicit distribution of tasks between the two co-pilots."It is then that pilot error was caught, inadvertently, the altitude at the aircraft, did win (lose lift) and then drove down to the ocean. The findings of the BEA is overwhelming for the crew of Air France. "Neither pilot refers to the stall alarm" that sounds, however, continuously for 54 seconds, and "neither pilot formally identified the dropout situation."

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The IMF releases 3.2 billion euros for Greece

The board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met Friday in Washington, approved, as expected, the release of a new tranche of 3.2 billion euros for Greece.

It is in addition to 8.7 billion euros released a week ago by the European Union. This round of 12 billion euros is the fifth of the rescue plan 110 billion approved last year. It should enable the country to repay much of its debt maturing July 15 (EUR 2.4 billion to good six months) and 22 July (2 billion euros good for three months).

But Greece, the public debt (354.5 billion euros at end March) shook up the United States, is not out of the rut.Athens calls for a hue and cry a second bailout, a value equivalent to the first, or 110 billion euros, for which the Europeans require the participation of the private sector. A meeting of the Eurogroup in Brussels next Monday, followed by a council of finance ministers the following day was supposed to define its contours. But it will not succeed, as the differences remain significant even within the Union. At best, a decision is expected in mid-September, confirmed the new Greek Finance Minister, Evangelos Venizelos.

Taboo

For many scholars, starting with the rating agencies as criticized in recent days, the private sector's contribution to the recovery plan would resemble a Greek default, since creditors will not get their refunds in time and hour.A nightmare scenario that Europeans seek to avoid at all costs. Without having yet found the parade.

And meanwhile, some still waving the event of a release of the euro area. An expert in Brussels who had requested a report before he leaves office, a judge at the end of the decade "there may well still have 17 members, but the question is whether this will be the same that 'today. "

The subject is taboo, but if Greece were to be found in default, many experts believe that the only way to redress the country's economy would be a devaluation, and thus an exit from the euro. This had been done in Argentina in 2002, winning its currency, the peso, the U.S. dollar.

Gold and oil unscrew

On Thursday, black oil

Last week was full of emotion on the oil markets. Until Wednesday, investors were rather good mood. The courses were on the upside with a barrel of "light sweet crude" from 93.26 dollars to 95.41 dollars in three days. Even moving to London Brent crude rose from 111.57 to 113.51 dollars over the period. The markets were so carried away by the renewed optimism in financial markets about the prospects of Greece avoid default. Moreover, the price rises as a result of lower stocks of crude and gasoline in the United States and following the Fed's decision to keep interest rates low.

Then, everything changed Thursday. That day, the IEA countries are brokers by surprise by announcing their intention to use their reserve stocks to put 60 million barrels on the market.This decision, which will lead to a sharp increase in supply leads to a sharp fall in markets: the barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in August finished Thursday at 91.02 dollars black while in London on IntercontinentalExchange, the price of Brent North Sea due to the same tumbled 108.02 dollars. Always concerned about this decision, the markets have been volatile Friday session one, barely worn by positive economic indicators in the United States. A barrel of "light sweet crude" for August delivery ended the week at 91.16 dollars and Brent at 105.52 dollars.

In New York, the courts show a fall of 8% over the last two weeks, and even about 20% from their peaks in early May.

Gold through turbulence

Such as oil, gold was a very quiet start of the week.The yellow metal, a safe haven par excellence, was then boosted by lingering fears surrounding the budget crisis in Greece and the risks of contagion to other countries in the euro area. Wednesday, the day after the vote of confidence from Parliament to the government, even an ounce rose to 1558.25 dollars, not far from its high of 1577.57 dollars.

Then on Thursday, the shock wave that hit the oil markets hit gold. It continued until Friday. On these two days, the precious metal lost nearly 50 dollars, falling Friday to 1504.85 dollars, its lowest level in a month. The nervousness of investors in commodities gained the metal shelter. She was more accentuated by a sharp rise in the dollar against the euro adversely affected by the crisis in Greece.On the London Bullion Market, an ounce of gold finished Friday at 1514.75 dollars at auction in the afternoon.

In the wake of the gold, silver, rose significantly until Wednesday, before dropping more than 6% the next two days. The gray metal finished Friday at 34.73 dollars per ounce. Pulled down by the plunge in gold and the rising dollar, an ounce of platinum finished Friday at 1696 against $ 1829 dollars a week earlier, while an ounce of palladium ended at 739 dollars against 810 dollars in September days earlier.

Base metals with no direction

As for base metals, it was time for hesitation. Nickel (22,130 dollars per tonne), lead (in 2564 dollars) and zinc (in 2251 dollars) are the only ones to show increases.For others, the context was too heavy with the uncertain outcome of the case of Greece and the signs of slowdown in the U.S. and China which was happening at a push of the dollar. All these elements made the metal less attractive to investors very suspicious vis-à-vis the commodity markets since the fall of oil prices.

The copper market barometer, was not supported by the latest report of the International Group for the Study of copper (ICSG), which indicates a production surplus of 18,000 tonnes in March. On the LME, the tonne of copper for delivery in three months ended down at 9,044.50 dollars on Friday.

Wheat, corn and soybeans down

The prices of food have not been affected last week by the Action Plan of the G20 countries to fight against the volatility of agricultural products.In Chicago, the investors had more eyes turned to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is published this week reports on acreage and stocks by. Meanwhile, warmer weather since early June fueling a decline in prices. Bushel of corn (about 25 kg) for September delivery ended Friday at 6.55 dollars (4.6% on the week), the soybean contract for November delivery rose to 13.10 dollars ( -1.7%) and a bushel of wheat due in September ended at 6.61 dollars (6.6%).

Note that in London, cocoa prices were supported by the "swollen shoot", a viral disease that threatens the harvest cocoa in Ivory Coast, according to observers. However, prices have limited their gains over the weekend, affected by a rise in the dollar.On Liffe in London, a tonne of cocoa for September delivery was worth 1867 dollars and on the NYBOT-ICE U.S., the contract for the same term finished in 2967 dollars.