All World

Growth: more efforts

The government calls it a "false flat". And is careful to avoid complacency. But simply slowing growth announced Wednesday morning by INSEE (0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011, after +0.3% in the third quarter) is a pleasant surprise. At least, France does she not in recession! In its latest memo on the economy, in December, the statistics institute saw no improvement emerge this winter and announced a negative fourth quarter.

If the first comments from Bercy Wednesday morning play sobriety, it is because the executive is well aware that neither the economic equation in 2012, nor the budget equation – let alone the political equation – only became simple in one day.  

In the wake of European difficulties, a GDP contraction is expected in the first quarter of this year (0.1%), before a small growth spurt (also 0.1%) in the second quarter, according to forecasts INSEE. Under these assumptions, the growth overhang at mid-year would be almost nil. Suffice to say that although the government has revised down its growth forecast for 2012 (0.5% against 1%), nothing is won yet. To accommodate this new lens, a 0 no fax payday loans.6% increase in GDP per quarter during the second half of the year is necessary. But we must go back well before the crisis, in late 2006 and early 2007 to see similar growth rate. Today, the French economy is far from out of his convalescence.

The government has repeatedly said he had put enough money in reserve to hold its trajectory to reduce public deficits without resorting to additional austerity measures. He welcomed the results better than expected on the forehead of public finances in 2011 gives him a little oxygen for 2012. "We are in the right direction, but we can not relax," said the Minister of Economy, Baroin, a few days ago. Almost sluggish growth this year would considerably complicate a fragile situation. Half a point less growth, it is about 5 billion more to find. It will take somewhere, have clearly in mind the French.

Anyway, Paris is committed to its partners in Brussels to bring back the deficit to 4.5% of GDP at end 2012. This objective is "intangible", regularly repeats the Prime Minister Francois Fillon. Election year or not.