Yet the conditions for a sustainable rebound
• The stock market environment is in many ways more fragile than in 2008
After the capitulation market in recent days, many investors are wondering whether it is time to return the purchase. Beyond a simple technical rebound, the chances of quick recovery courses are limited for the simple reason that the current stock market is in some ways more fragile than in 2008. Signs of slowdown are multiplying in the United States, Europe could enter recession in the coming months, and the deterioration in manufacturing activity in China shows that the theory of decoupling between emerging and rich countries no longer holds the ramp. Response capacity of government to stimulate consumption are practically nil, and the effect of accompanying policies of central banks has reached its limits.The current crisis comes mainly from the usual market issues related to the level of market valuation or the correction of excesses after a period of intense speculation. The epicenter of the crisis is now in the euro area, with governments overwhelmed by the level of public debt and unable to agree on the management of their common currency. The solution to these difficulties lies in the hands of "political" and not in the trading rooms and in business. This is what the operators despair!
• The core business is a real force that
The recovery will be difficult, but much of the bad news began to be integrated into the course. The precipitous decline of the indices shows that the Exchange has already taken a good step ahead of the crisis.A CAC 40 to 2800 points means, for example, that investors expect an increase, not corporate profits, but a 30% drop in profits in 2012. This pessimism is starting to become excessive, especially for industrial groups, such as Air Liquide, Schneider Electric and Michelin, a strong presence in emerging markets where business slows but does not decrease instant personal loans guaranteed. The same goes for business as L'Oreal, Essilor International and Pernod Ricard, which have strong brands and where margins are not challenged. The treatment of more defensive companies, such as France Telecom, Sanofi, or GDF Suez, also reached its limits.These values offer attractive yields of between 10 to 6%.
• The plight of the shareholders of the banks could come to an end
In three months, the market value of the three largest French banks, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas, has been halved. This collapse is comparable to the fall in prices occurred after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Investors have punished the weak provisions made in the accounts to meet the commitments of banks in the peripheral countries of the euro area and a general loss of confidence in respect of institutions in the euro area. Far from scaring the market, the rumor of a possible entry of the state in their capital in the form of preference shares is now likely to reassure investors.10 to 15 billion euros to recapitalize matter which it would lead to a "dilution" of shareholders limited. After the destruction of 50 billion capitalization in the summer, the amounts mentioned are already largely taken into account by the markets. Bank stocks will certainly remain under pressure, but the plight of their shareholders might come to an end.
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