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Spain, Italy and Belgium in the viewfinder of rating agencies

Fitch Ratings lowered the rating two notches from Spain, which now stands at "AA-". Spain held so far a "AA +", the fourth highest on a scale of twenty. More worryingly, the note is accompanied by a 'Negative' outlook, which means that the agency could lower it back to medium term.

Spanish growth at half mast

Moody's in turn should decide by the end of October on a possible downgrade Spanish now "Aa2" (the third best possible)."With significant funding needs" of the Spanish State, to cover its budget expenditures and net external debt is "one of the highest in the world" (91% of GDP), said Fitch, "the more volatile strong a negative effect on financing conditions in the market of Spain. "

But there are also internal factors in the country "risks to fiscal consolidation as a result of performance parts." The same agency Fitch has lowered Wednesday including the long-term rating of the Basque Country, one of the richest region in which it criticizes the "weak fiscal performance." Growth forecasts have been revised downwards. Wednesday, the Bank of Spain announced that the country's growth expected to slow in the third quarter, to reach an economic activity 'lackluster'.The Spanish government has also recognized that the economic growth targets it had set for 2011 and subsequent years would be "hard to reach" because of the risk of recession in the world.

Italian governance into question

Fitch also lowered the rating one notch to Italy, "A +" against "AA-" and does not see her again in the fall if the country would miss its targets for reducing the budget deficit. Fitch was the last of three major international rating agencies have not downgraded from Italy since the beginning of the debt crisis in the eurozone no fax cash advances. She explained that the high level of public debt and budgetary financing needs, combined with the low level of potential growth (the country), made in Italy especially vulnerable.The Agency is challenging the country's governance and stressed that the differences in the Parliament and the escapades of the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, help to weaken the ruling coalition.

Belgium heckled by Dexia

Belgium is also in sight. The agenceMoody's said it was considering lowering its rating, currently at "Aa1", the second best possible. The agency cited three reasons: the crisis in the euro area, concerns for economic growth and the possibility of additional support to the banking system, particularly in establishing Franco-Belgian Dexia.

Another European country in turmoil, Portugal, has been confirmed its rating of "BBB-" (the last before falling into the category of "speculative") by Fitch, which continued on negative watch at least until the end of the year.Standard & Poor's, confirmed Tuesday the rating "BBB-" from Portugal, while maintaining it as a negative outlook. Portugal, the third country in the eurozone after Greece and Ireland to receive international financial assistance, is facing new economic challenges that undermine his efforts to clean up its public accounts. Progress in implementing the program of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and its budget for 2012 will be crucial.

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Slight improvement in the morale of cadres

After an unprecedented drop in September (-30 points), who dropped to its lowest historical, the composite index of moral frameworks in October recorded a very slight improvement (4 points, -51) . This is reflected in the latest wave of eco-Baro Viavoice for HEC, Le Figaro and France Inter. "After a very bad score in September, but rather the beginnings of a correction than a real improvement in the bottom," said François Miquet-Marty, president of Viavoice.

At the macroeconomic level, white-collar workers remain pessimistic.Seven in ten think that the standard of living in France "degrade" in a year and almost eight out of ten (77%) and unemployment "increase" in the coming months.

Vicious circle

These concerns are largely fueled by doubts about "the ability of France to reduce its deficits" (47%) and the anticipation of the impact "of austerity on growth" (39%). "The magnitude of the deficits may impose stronger discipline, which could restrain growth and thereby compromising deficit reduction," the president of Viavoice analysis. For managers, this vicious circle, deficits, rigor, decay, now appears more menacing that "commodity prices" (28%), "the future of the euro" (22%) or "the changes in stock prices "(16%).

Amid this gloomy picture, however, some glimmers of hope.If the problems banks are now in the news, the difficulty for companies to find financing worries only 18% of managers. Then they are less likely to feel that their financial situation "will deteriorate" (44%, down 4 points) and almost as many think that it "will remain stationary" (43%, six points). Their employees are more motivated (36%, +4 points).

As for opportunities for a career, if they are deemed "weak" by an overwhelming majority of executives (79%), the percentage of those who disagree (17%) improved by 4 points. Finally, the question "do you think Greece should leave it to devalue the euro?", A framework of two answers "no" and nearly one in three "yes."

Banks back into the market turmoil

The respite will not last long: after a week of relative calm, the European banking sector has again stumbled in the stock market Monday. Britain's RBS, French Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank or German for example, have dropped out of respectively 12.32%, 8.64% and 7.53%. Even the champion of Frankfurt stock exchange now weighs less than half its book value! This increased tension is supplied from Friday with a new bundle of anxiety on the macroeconomic front. Investors fear that gives that summer debt crisis in Europe and the United States against a backdrop of slowing growth, worsening. The European foot-dragging on the Greek case illustrates the difficulty of political reassurance. Terms of private sector contribution in the second rescue of Greece, to be completed at the root end of August and early September, and still raises many questions.The debates are multiplying on the accounting treatment of such assistance, and the right level required for impairment of securities Greek, while the economy sinks further into crisis.

200 billion euros in recapitalization

Asked about the idea of ​​requiring banks assessment of sovereign debt in the market, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, said Monday that "it was forcing an open door to say that many banks Europe would not survive. " Especially since the doubts about the ability of Italy to keep its austerity plan and that of France to absorb a succession of shocks without further tighten the screws are becoming more vivid.The CDS on the two countries, these insurance policies that protect a non-payment, Monday reached a record high.

Under these conditions, the crusade of the new Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, against the underfunding of the European banking sector is gaining credibility. According to the Financial Times, its equipment valued at 200 billion euros on equity gap for the entire industry. The chairman of BNP Paribas, Michel Pebereau, said Monday: "The stress tests in Europe (…) suggest that it is not so obvious that today the European banking system as a whole may need to be recapitalized.Some banks, no doubt. "Boss BPCE, and past president of the French Banking Federation (FBF), François Perol, said he did not think" that (statement of Christine Lagarde) was referring to French banks. "

On the other side of the Atlantic, the signals are no more reassuring. The disappointing U.S. employment published Friday that result in maintaining a high unemployment rate to 9.1%, have cast a chill on the market. The same day, Washington expressed its willingness to prosecute seventeen banks for selling its agencies refinancing, without the correct information, asset-backed mortgages, subprime. The legal battle casts a new threat to the sector.

Despite sluggish growth, employment improves

It's the only bright spot in the dark landscape cyclical French: the labor market continued to regain strength. In the second quarter, 68,300 jobs were created in the nonprofit sector. This is 10,000 more than in the first quarter.

The tertiary sector contributes almost exclusively to these creations (57,200 jobs), the industry confirms his recovery: 6600 jobs were created in this sector, according to Insee. This is his second consecutive quarter of growth. "This sector lost jobs every quarter since 2001," says INSEE.

Only government minister to be able to celebrate yesterday, Xavier Bertrand (Labour, Employment, Health) welcomed that "210,600 jobs a year (have) been created." He sees "a positive signal about the vitality of the real economy." This movement is all the more surprising that growth has been sluggish in recent months.

"You have to look at the figure of 0% over the period issued yesterday: considering the annual growth and relating to the last four quarters, we see that the quarterly growth rate is invariably French 0.4%, says Frédéric Gonand, associate professor of economics at Paris Dauphine. This shows that even with 1.6% annual rate, which corresponds to its potential growth, France is creating jobs. "

According to Dares, the index of the basic monthly wage (SMB) increased by 0.6% in the second quarter, representing an increase of 2.1% over one year. This significant increase of basic wages does not mean a sharp increase in the purchasing power of households. In the second quarter, prices rose 0.5% year on year and they operate around 2%.The purchasing power has improved very little, which explains the weakness of consumption in recent months.

Disinflation energy

But-and this is another rare good news in the farm figures released yesterday, according to Insee, the consumer prices fell by 0.4% in July. A decline mainly due balances but also by the expansion of energy prices. Under these conditions, if the job market continues to grow at the same pace as earlier this year, the disposable income of households could improve a little.

"Disinflation energy currently underway should provide some support the purchasing power of households," say economists at Natixis.The main pillar of the French economy will be a little stronger in the second half, provided that the fiscal savings provided by the government do not result in a tax grab too much, the experts continue to Natixis.

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The Paris Bourse expected a slight increase

European stock exchanges succeed they continue their rebound started the day before? Investors should prove once again nervous at the end of a week marked by extreme market volatility, which saw the CAC 40 push the psychological threshold of 3000 points during trading Thursday before returning to the colors.

Friday morning, the Paris index is expected a slight increase of 0.4%. Thursday, ACC closed up 2.59% to 3089.66 points, after falling in mid-session. The day before, the Paris index plunged more than 5%. The same volatility dominates in Frankfurt the Dax closed up 3.28% and in London where the FTSE-100 index gained 3.11%.

Investors were reassured by the announcement of a meeting between Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on August 16 to issue joint proposals on the governance of the euro area.In addition, U.S. markets were supported by two good indicators of the jobless and real estate. Wall Street has ended sharply higher: the Dow Jones has gained 4% and the Nasdaq 4.69%.

Another announcement that should bring some calm markets: such as Belgium, Spain and Italy, France announced Thursday the ban on short selling in the securities of eleven banks and insurance companies to counter the extreme volatility of the stock market values. Among the relevant securities, BNP Paribas, which issued a statement Thursday night to reaffirm the strength of its capital, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole online payday loans.

No growth in the second quarter

On the macroeconomic front, INSEE reported this morning from zero growth in the second quarter in France (0.0%), against an increase of 0.9% in the first quarter.Inflation also slowed: the consumer prices fell by 0.4% in July, resulting in an increase of 1.9% over the year (against 2.1% from June 2010 to June 2011 ).

Oil is, meanwhile, resumed its decline in trade in Asia, having recovered Thursday in the United States. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" lost 47 cents to 85.25 dollars and that of Brent North Sea fell by 57 cents to 107.45 dollars.

Other values ​​to follow, Europacorp, the production company of Luc Besson, Thursday reaffirmed its goal of a return to balance for the current year, despite a sharp decline in sales the first quarter.

Derichebourg Thursday confirmed its target of improving its annual net income, after recording a sharp increase in sales over the first nine months of the year.

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New Storm on the Paris Stock Exchange

New slump in the Paris Bourse. At the close on Wednesday, the CAC 40 index showed a loss of 5.45% to 3002.99 points and manages to maintain a narrow margin the psychological threshold of 3000 points. In a volume of trade of 6 billion euros, the volatility was again very strong.

Like him, other European indices loosen: the FTSE-100 index in London lost 3.05% to 5007.16 points at closing. The Dax in Frankfurt tumbles 5.13% to 5613.42 points after falling 6% during the session. The index featured the Milan Stock Exchange, the FTSE Eb, closed Wednesday on a drop of 6.65% at 14,676 points, its lowest level since April 2009. The Madrid Stock Exchange closed on a fall of 5.49%.

The banking sector collapses

All markets are penalized by the banking sector, while Greece is planning to expand its exchange program to include obligations of the securities in the longer term, which penalizes first private creditors. In Paris, Societe Generale gives 14.47 (after a 20.83% drop in session) to 22.18 euros, Crédit Agricole 11.81% to 6.07 euros, BNP Paribas 9.47% to 35.61 euros and Natixis 9.11% to 2.68 euros.

Banks have suffered rumors of degradation of the note of France, while Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poors reiterated that the AAA rating of the Hexagon was accompanied by a stable outlook online cash advance. Even Bercy denies "formally" the rumors of degradation.But the surprise meeting convened by Nicolas Sarkozy interrupted his holiday to deal with several ministers the theme of economic and financial crisis has rekindled investor concerns.

Also in Europe, the divisions between countries are delaying the implementation of the rescue plan agreed in June In addition, fears of renewed extension of the debt crisis in Italy explains the new fall. The market is concerned about the ability of Italian banks to refinance.

Industrial production declined in France

As on Wall Street, markets been unable to continue the strong rebound in the day that followed the speech by U.S. Federal Reserve.The latter, however, assured that it would extend its monetary policy ultra-accommodating while maintaining zero interest rates until at least mid-2013 and exploring other measures to support the U.S. economy, which will probably end detailed August, at the final communiqué of the U.S. central bank. But the Fed confirmed that the U.S. economy is in trouble, especially since the deterioration in the debt rating of American long-term.

For the economist Nicolas Bouzou, the previous day had already not reassuring:

The player is used by default in the articles of figaro.fr. Maj7

Slump on the stock exchanges in Asia

Investors are serious threats to U.S. debt. After Moody's, Standard & Poor's is who placed the AAA rating of U.S. debt on negative watch, a move that paves the way for a potential degradation of this note in three months. The debates in Congress about raising the ceiling of the debt of the United States because struggling to move forward. If an agreement is not reached on this issue, the United States would be in default on 2 August. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, multiply the exhortations to heed the warning of the rating agencies and to establish "a credible policy of fiscal stabilization and deficit reduction" . U.S. President assured that "the time for decisions has come."Barack Obama held this afternoon a press conference.

These concerns, coupled with the persistent confusion in Europe after the breakdown of the note of the Greek debt, pushing investors to turn to gold. The yellow metal hit a new all-time high last night at 1583 dollars an ounce.

Crude prices evolve without trend: a decline of 0.22% observed on futures contracts for Brent North Sea, but the future of the light sweet crude advance of 0.08%.

The Nikkei keep your head above water

Despite this background of mistrust, the Nikkei in Tokyo managed to stay close to balance just before the closing, (0.03%) to 9939.36 points.

In China, foreign direct investment in the first half display, up 18.4% year on year to 60.89 billion dollars.But the Shanghai Stock Exchange, investors hold above the overall context of market and the strengthening of restrictions on the purchase of apartments in several Chinese cities. Therefore, the CSI gives 0.11% to 3112.44 points.

And Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was down 0.26% at 21,883 points, to 7.30.

The Chinese joint venture with Auchan, Art Sun Retail, which raised $ 1.14 billion as part of his introduction to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, has postponed the start of its listing, expected this Friday, July 27. The postponement is due to an error in the presentation material from the introduction on its earnings per share. New documents will be issued Monday.

In Bombay, the Indian Sensex was down 0.18% to 18,585, 40 points.

The Australian market, unconvinced by the acquisition of BHP Billiton

In Australia, the ASX 200 was down 0.48% to 4469.10 points.The Australian market was led by the announcement of an acquisition by mining giant BHP Billiton. Putting his hand on the American Petrohawk Energy for 12.1 billion dollars (8.6 billion euros), it opens the doors of U.S. shale gas. Following the announcement last night, the action of BHP Billiton has sold 1.7% to the Australian Stock Exchange, to 42.84 Australian dollars (45.83 U.S. dollars) after reaching a low in two weeks early session.

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The CAC 40 is depressed before the European meeting

The Paris market continues to fall on Thursday, a reflection of what has been observed in Asian markets this morning and the decline in U.S. indices yesterday. Wednesday evening, the Cac 40 lost 0.15% and ended at 3871.37 points in a very dynamic market, with over 7.1 billion traded on the benchmark index of the Paris Bourse. And on Thursday, the index still declined from 0.49% to 3852.48 points.

At the time of opening, the composite PMI, which includes industry and services, has returned to version 55.4 "flash" against 60.3 in May, reaching its lowest level since October. The growth of private sector activity in France has slowed more than expected in June.

European side, European leaders find themselves on Thursday night in Brussels at a summit to try to reassure their ability to stem the endless debt crisis in Greece and prevent contagion throughout the euro area, which worries more and more abroad. Other items on the agenda: the confirmation of the appointment in November of the Italian Mario Draghi as President of the ECB to replace Jean-Claude Trichet.

The publication of the memo on the economy of France, to be released at 22 o'clock tonight, will be watching. In addition, the G20 agricultural ends today. In addition, Christine Lagarde, a candidate for the general direction of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), spends his oral exam today in Washington.The maintenance of his rival, Mexico's Agustin Carstens, was held Tuesday.

United States, a report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday warned against an explosion of net public debt, which can reach 100% of GDP by 2021 if nothing is done to correct the current trajectory. In addition, the U.S. central bank is now focusing on a GDP increase of less than 3% in the fourth quarter. New measures could be considered if the economic situation deteriorated.

On the currency markets, the euro bends slightly from 0.20% to 1.4307 dollar.

EDF denies

The CAC 40, only Pernod Ricard rises in green: 0.06% to 66.49 euros. But in the SBF 120, Lagardère stands: 2.33% to 27.40 euros.Areva takes him 0.59% to 25.50 euros.

Side drops, banks suffer: -1.66% to 39.21 for SocGen, -1.51% to 10 instant credit report.10 euros and Credit Agricole -1.18% to 42.12 euros for BNP Paribas. European banks resisted, however, a defect in Greece, according to Bernard de Longevialle, head of bank ratings at Standard & Poor's. Note that BNP Paribas bought 25% of Findomestic to the bank Intesa Sanpaolo for 629 million euros and now holds 100%.

EDF (-0.52% to 25.96 euros), which plunged 3% yesterday s "ance, had to deny rumors of leaks in nuclear plants in France. The CGT has nevertheless confirmed that called for an end of a reactor at the plant in Seine-Maritime Paluel due to extraordinary levels of radioactivity. The electrician has admitted it yesterday "an accumulation of small differences" after the publication of an article Mediapart citing incidents in series.

In addition, the dean of French nuclear reactors, the central Fessenheim, would be allowed in the coming days to continue to operate for ten years.

EADS (-0.09% to 21.83 euros). The buyers of the Airbus A400M signed a framework agreement on the development and maintenance of the fleet of the future military transport aircraft. Furthermore, after signing an order for sixteen billion dollars with Indigo, negotiate with Airbus for 200 A320 AirAsia NEO.American Airlines could also favor the European aircraft manufacturer at the expense of its rival Boeing.

Air France-KLM lost 2.06% to 10.21 eruos.

Dassault Systemes (-2.74% to 56.15 euros, the largest decline rating) expects a double-digit increase in sales in the aerospace and defense between 2010 and 2014 thanks to the many innovations offered by these sectors, Reuters said Wednesday its chief executive Bernard Charles said in an interview.

Automobile manufacturers seek to diversify their income and increase customer loyalty.

Peugeot (-0.57% to 29.72 euros) PSA installed production capacity that should allow it to manufacture more than 30,000 hybrid vehicles per year, reports La Tribune. "At Sochaux, we expect a potential of 70 to 80 units per day," says Serge Isler, project 3008 Peugeot hybrid.In addition, PSA has manufactured in Rennes, Brittany, just over 15,000 Peugeot 508 equipped with the same technology, the paper said.

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The success of conventional ruptures

Breaks conventional still face a huge success in business. Since the introduction of this device in 2008, their number continues to grow at a rate of 20,000 to 24,000 per month, according to a recent memorandum the Ministry of Labour. After a strong scalability driven by the crisis, the number of monthly requests has indeed stabilized since the fourth quarter of 2009, so as to exceed the threshold of half a million to break out of court last February. In total, conventional breaks accounted for 11% of CDI in 2010 after 7% in the first half of 2009 and 10% in the second half.

Small businesses are particularly in demand of this device. In the second half of 2010, three quarters of conventional ruptures have been signed in companies with fewer than 50 employees, while they represent only half of total employment.Overall, more than one company is big, and the less it tends to resort to conventional rupture. In establishments with more than 250 employees, the break is only conventional and 5% for contracts, against 13% in establishments with fewer than 10 employees. In contrast, the amount of compensation increases with the size of the company. The amount paid per employee in 7430 was certainly high euro in 2009, but half of the employees has actually received little more than the statutory redundancy payment, below which firms can not fall .

Disguised early retirement

If smaller firms are attracted by the flexibility of the device, breaking "friendly" is also not without pitfalls. The high proportion of employees over 50 years involved calls for a diversion of the rupture conventional at the expense of Unedic.In the second half of 2010, the breakdown was 23% of the conventional reasons for termination for employees aged 58 to 59, against 8% of those under thirty years … so companies would use this system to be financed by the Insurance which is similar to put in early retirement.

In some cases, break "friendly" is also related to a dismissal. The report by Mathilde Lemoine and Etienne Wasmer on the mobility of employees said that the profile breaks conventional evolves quite parallel to that of redundancy. This observation would argue, according to the report, for use of the device in lieu of redundancy at the expense of employees.If the Ministry of Labour is responsible for control conventions and to avoid abuse, the lack of support for employees during the preliminary interviews, often in small businesses, not easy by regular use of the device.

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Wall Street moves slowly

U.S. stock markets opened very slightly up on Tuesday. The Dow Jones gained 0.22% to 12,507.01 points, the S & P 500 is 0.40% to 1340.65 points and the Nasdaq rose 0.34% to 2835.44 points. On Monday, the NYSE has done in a piecemeal, beginning with one week ahead caution particularly busy, with many corporate earnings and a crucial meeting of the American central bank (Fed).

Investors should still be cautious on Tuesday. The week promises to be loaded into effect as macroeconomic and microeconomic levels.United States, some 180 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 and eight of the Dow Jones must publish their first quarter results, including those from Amazon today, Coca-Cola and Office Depot.

Beginning of the Fed meeting tonight

The U.S. central bank meets from this afternoon and on this occasion could provide guidance on its strategy for ending the crisis so that its measures to support the economy come to an end late June. The U.S. central bank should maintain its interest rates between 0% and 0.25%, a threshold at which they have been held since December 2008 to reinvigorate the economy. On the other hand, the buyback program to $ 600 billion of debt the Treasury launched in November would go to its closure in June, in accordance with the wishes of the majority within the Fed.Markets also expect to see for the first time in the history of this institution almost centenary, the Fed chairman to answer questions from reporters after a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.

Housing prices in the United States continued to decline for the eighth consecutive month in February, 0.2% from January, according to the monthly Standard and Poor's / Case-Shiller index released Tuesday.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro rose slightly from 0.21% to 1.4610 dollar.

Oil prices were little higher on Tuesday at the market opening in New York, a barrel of benchmark winning 7 cents to 112.35 dollars, still supported by a weak dollar and tensions in the Middle East and North Africa .

Boeing: 0.21% to 75.06 dollars

The side of values, the investigators of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said in a statement it had found cracks in the fuselage of the Boeing 737-300 Southwest Airlines involved in an incident in early April, and problems on the rivets .

Oracle: -0.12% to 34.79 dollars

The IT group and Oracle software has announced the departure of its CFO Jeff Epstein, whose duties will be assumed by its co-president Safra Catz, who was both his direct supervisor and his predecessor.

Yahoo!: -0.23% to 17.07 dollars

Yahoo! announced Monday the acquisition of very young IntoNow company, which launched on January 31 an application for iPhone to connect to family television programs we are watching.Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed, but the news website TechCrunch specialized evaluation between 20 and 30 million dollars.

General Electric: 1.07% to 20.10 dollars

The U.S. Department of Defense has terminated a contract from General Electric and Rolls-Royce for a replacement engine for fighter jets F-35.

Also note, the White House lashed out Monday night that U.S. oil companies will announce this week their profits when gasoline at the pump is at its highest in three years.Exxon Mobil advance of 0.19% to 86.38 dollars, Chevron gained 0.13% to 107.56 dollars and ConocoPhillips takes 0.17% to 80.62 dollars.

Goldman Sachs 0.21% to 152.52 dollars, Morgan Stanley: 0.47% to 25.90 dollars

A group of creditors of Lehman Brothers Holdings, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, introduced in turn before the bankruptcy court in Manhattan plan to restructure the bank, the third since the collapse of the facility in September 2008. It provides a recovery rate of over 40% for the creditors of the derivatives business at Lehman, which include the designers of this new plan, and a rate of only 16% for bondholders. The plan is very different from that filed in December by a group of bondholders, led by Paulson & Co. under which creditors would recover only derivatives that 25.7% and 24.5% of bondholders.Lehman has also filed its own restructuring plan, presented as a compromise. It provides a recovery rate of 34% for the creditors of derivatives and 21.4% for bondholders.