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Crisis in the euro area: what risk for your actions?

Equity markets continue to remain under pressure as they consider the problem of public finances in the euro area will not be solved for the long term. The public finance crisis is dangerous for shareholders? Expert answers.

Alain Bokobza, Societe Generale, "Yes, but the leaders of the euro area are working to limit damage to the holders of the assets of the peripheral countries. We do not expect heart of contagion to countries in the euro area if credible policies to restore the overall balance in the long term public are in place. Spain seems to us on track, which should help the Spanish index. "

Patrick Moonen, ING Investment managers: "A default risk uncontrolled in Greece would be very detrimental to shareholders.The stock market has not taken a negative outcome for Greece or further deterioration of public finances of the other peripheral countries. We see no quick fix and the level of uncertainty is very high, but time is a key that would recapitalize the banking sector and other peripheral countries to stand out from Greece in a positive way. This is necessary to limit the contagion. In short, we expect that governments can save time by delaying tactics. "

Pierre Sabatier, PrimeView "Yes, and it has only just begun. Historically, we find that growth slows sharply when the public debt ratio exceeds 90% of GDP.This will happen in many countries in the coming years (due to the continued deleveraging private is far from finished), leading to sluggish growth in most industrialized countries. This environment will eventually be negative for earnings growth, which is a function of GDP growth and inflation, and consequently to the equity markets. "

Wilfrid Pham, Natixis AM: "The crisis of public finances can be potentially dangerous for the banks if not handled properly by the institutions in charge of this problem problématique.Le liquidity crisis and confidence between financial institutions could be topical.Also, global economic growth could be negatively affectée.Les equity markets have a habit of reacting rather negatively to these events. "

Ginguene Olivier, Pictet Asset Management "course, but this risk seems already built into prices depressed the shares. This is especially for holders of debt (bonds) that this risk seems more and more dangerous now. Preferred shares of large non-financial corporations, less sensitive to local conditions (higher taxes, deficit reduction, regulations, slow growth …) and more exposed to international markets. "

Philippe Mimran, UFG-LFP: "Arguably, the public finance crisis is dangerous for shareholders. It stands at the end of fiscal restraint and thus slow growth. In addition, short term, the impact of market volatility.Finally, the financial sector is particularly undermined by the risks of insolvency of the States. "

Alexandre HEZEZ, Convictions AM: "It is illusory to think that the fiscal crisis will not affect businesses. The rationalization of fiscal policy is paradoxically a very good sign for long-term growth, so for equities. Consumption depends on expected future income rather than current income. This means that any measure that will give confidence in the sustainability of the health system and pension system will be good for confidence, so good for drinking so therefore the companies for shareholders … "

Francois Chevallier, Leonardo Bank: "Yes, but the damage is probably done for the shares in favor of safe havens such as gold, stone, the Swiss franc no faxing pay day loans.The drift of public finances and State debts would be the main explanation for the extraordinarily high level of risk premiums and historically low earnings multiples. "

Matthew Grouès, Lazard Frères Gestion, "Support for peripheral countries will probably continue for some time. A fault is a very unlikely scenario. The governments of developed countries must reduce their deficits and have begun to do so. As for the impact for shareholders, depending on the method: for the moment of corporate taxation has been little hard compared to other tax and spending cuts. "

Jean-Louis Mourier, Aurel-BGC: "Not directly in the short term.It is however an overall risk that affects more clearly the banks but is likely to lead to a tightening of global financial close to what was observed following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (freezes interbank markets and bond, blocking the distribution of bank loans, negative wealth effects …) "

Nuno Teixeira, Schroders France: "Governments Greek, Portuguese and Spanish, in spite of social protest, have recently confirmed their determination to control the situation of public finances. The first two were given the means to fulfill the conditions required by the EU and the IMF to substantial assistance to enable them to meet their liquidity needs more immediate.While the problems are not resolved in the medium term, but we are heading towards voluntary efforts refinancing from the European banks, which are expected to find a more permanent solution to debt problems. "

Catherine Garrigues, Allianz GI Investments Europe: "There is no major risk to shareholders who invested in international companies non-financial, unless they have strong activity in Greece, Spain or Portugal. Companies in these countries are experiencing rising spreads and is therefore difficult to find financing at reasonable rates. "

Antoine de Salins, Groupama Asset Management: "The answer is yes in any case for investment in developed countries: the crisis feeds market volatility who do not like uncertainty, especially those that attach to the assets deemed safe … ..It also weighs so heavy on the valuation of banks changing just like those of the debts of the peripheral countries. "

Bertrand Lamielle, B * capital: "The subject deserves full attention granted to him but is now analyzed in terms risk only. But a stock market perspective, the financial sector is capable of a strong rebound when the market considers that the solutions offer the senses. "

Frédéric Jamet, State Street: "The fiscal crisis will affect primarily government bonds (in case of default or restructuring), then only the shareholders, primarily in the financial sector and other sectors.This impact is already in stock prices. "

Mauro Ratto, Pioneer Investments: "The shareholders of the CAC 40 will be affected, because banks represent a significant share of the market capitalization totale.Ceux holding U.S. securities will not. U.S. companies are not dependent on this region, and generate profits in other areas. "

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EADS is developing a successor to the Concorde

Paris rally in Tokyo in 2:30. It may be possible around 2050. EADS, the parent company of Airbus, has initiated studies to develop a prototype that physically resembles the Concorde, whose last commercial flights stopped in 2003. The engine of the aircraft of the future for business travel with a capacity of 50 to 100 seats, would at once to fly at high speed while being environmentally friendly, since its goal is zero tailpipe emissions. It will take at least ten years of development before considering the first test flight.

The project is called ZEHST through a partnership between EADS, ONERA, the French aerospace research lab as well as Japan. A feasibility study financed by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and its counterpart Japanese, was launched.It is based on the initial results of research carried out by Astrium, a subsidiary of the giant European space aeronautics, as part of its program of sub-orbital aircraft, the Space plane.

Three types of engines

The unit will have three types of engines already on the market that will be used during different phases of flight: take-off up to 5000 meters with a turbo-jet close enough to those fitted to aircraft today, but "these engines will be powered by biofuels third generation developed from growing algae so clean," said Jean Botti, chief technology officer of EADS business card design. When climbing in altitude beyond 20,000 feet at 0.8 Mach, the unit will use cryogenic engines such as the Ariane launcher, powered by hydrogen.Then for the transition to its high speed (mach 4) and a very high altitude (32,000 meters) use ZEHST called Ramjet engines (now fitted to cruise missiles). A model is on display at Le Bourget.

Meanwhile, EADS is working on another concept known as Voltaire, an all-electric machine whose engine would not be placed under the wings but in the tail. The wings would obey the principle of morphing itself adapting to the different phases of flight, said Jean Botti in substance. The device is designed to make short trips with 50 to 70 passengers.

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ECB prepares to raise rates in July

As expected, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, meeting Thursday in Frankfurt, has left unchanged its interest rates. However Jean-Claude Trichet sought to prepare the minds of an increase in July. "Overall, the risks to price stability are on the upside, and a strong vigilance is therefore warranted," said the president of the ECB at the press conference that followed. In the coded language of Frankfurt, a "strong vigilance" is the conventional signal to indicate a rate hike next month."Right now we still believe that the July increase will last (this year)," said Jonathan Loynes, however, the chief economist for Europe of Capital Economics.

Jean-Claude Trichet has not sought to exaggerate the danger of inflation: "The upward pressure on inflation (is) mainly due to energy prices and raw materials," he admitted. Markets have noted that the ECB had not raised its forecast of rising consumer prices for 2012, which remain in the range of 1.1% to 2.3%. This status quo, compared to previous estimates of last March, has contributed to a decline of the euro vis-à-vis the dollar.

In terms of economic growth forecasts have been revised slightly upwards for 2011 (from 1.5% to 2.3%), the range for 2012 is particularly large (between 0.6% and 2.8 %)."Uncertainty remains high," commented Jean-Claude Trichet installment payday loans.

No "default"

It was also expected on Greece, "after the procession of contradictory statements from finance ministers, who have unfortunately contributed to widen interest rate spreads on sovereign debt in the euro area in recent weeks," regrets a market economy. The ECB President was extremely strong. "It would be a great mistake" than engaging in a debt restructuring, "he insisted. "Our position is clear and we served on European governments" no "credit event", no "default". The ECB considers that Greece would be closed permanently while the financing markets.

"We exclude any participation of private creditors who would not volunteer (from them), he only conceded.He however refused to say what would the ECB on securities it has in its balance sheet (between 60 and 70 billion euros), if private investors decided to extend the maturity of their claims.

In a less dramatic, the college of 27 governors took action on the succession of its chairman, in the form of a statement. "The governors did not Councilof objectionable to the proposed candidate, Mario Draghi, who is a person of recognized standing and professional experience in monetary or banking matters."

"The French reimburse banks lending to Greece"

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The Paris Bourse uptick

Keep the 4000 points will be the goal of the day at the Paris Bourse. This threshold was consolidated yesterday with an increase of 1.63%, amid relief on the Greek case. Germany indeed abandon the idea of ​​restructuring the debt. Information that was also relieved Wall Street and Asian markets yesterday.

On Wednesday, the CAC 40 is moving slowly from 0.14% to 4014.84 points. Elsewhere, the London Stock Exchange opened down slightly, the FTSE-100 index lost just 0.05% to 5986.93 points. Frankfurt, by contrast, began with a gain of 0.23% to 7310.56 points.

Already in Asia, the euphoria gave way to doubts after the announcement of a further slowdown in manufacturing activity in China. PMI purchasing managers of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) fell to 52 last month, cons 52.9 in April.For its part, HSBC has calculated a PMI to 51.6 for May, against 51.8 in April, and noted "a continued moderate growth in manufacturing output accompanied by an easing of inflationary pressures" on last month.

The U.S. employment program

These new investors also encourage Parisians to moderation. Especially since a series of important indicators is expected:

In France, the unemployment rate fell slightly in the first quarter of 2011, to 9.2% of the workforce in France (9.7% overseas departments included), down 0.1 points compared revised figure for the fourth quarter of 2010, INSEE announced Wednesday.

In Europe is provided the manufacturing PMI in May.Then the United States, employment will be honored with the study Challenger (1330) and the monthly ADP (1430), both published before the traditional employment report from the Labor Department, scheduled for Friday . Are also scheduled in the U.S., construction spending and ISM manufacturing.

As for currencies, the euro remains stable against the dollar in morning trading at 1.4427 dollar. For its part, the oil rises, still worn by the announcement on Greece.In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for July delivery took 30 cents to U.S. $ 103 while that of Brent North Sea crude for delivery gained 31 cents identical to 117.04 dollars.

Operators under supervision

As for values ​​to be followed:

Axa: 2.02% to 15.14 euros

The group, which has detailed a plan Wednesday to strategic investors, will sell its Canadian subsidiary to Intact Financial.

Peugeot: -0.37% to 29.30 euros, Renault: -0.15% to 39.36 euros

Registrations of new cars rose 6.2% in May

Schneider Electric: 0.22% to 114.85 euros

The group announced Wednesday a takeover bid of $ 2 billion (1.4 billion euros) to Telvent, a specialist in systems for managing energy infrastructure, water and transport.

France Telecom: -0.57% to 15.81 euros, Bouygues: -0.11% to 32.06 euros, Vivendi +0.15% at 19.42 euros

The mobile phone may be carcinogenic but no formal proof establishes the link between mobile use and brain tumors, cancer specialists have said Tuesday the World Health Organization (WHO).

Arkema: -0.35% to 75.90 euros

The group will enter the CAC Next 20, the antechamber of the CAC 40, and CNP Assurances will be withdrawn with effect from 20 June, the Council decided on scientific evidence of NYSE Euronext Paris. In a statement, Arkema said that NYSE Euronext enters the CAC 60 and the Large NOC is withdrawn.The reverse operation is performed for the CAC Mid 60.

Neopost: -1.16% to 61.50 euros

The group announced an increase in its turnover in the first quarter despite difficult conditions in Europe and confirmed its targets for 2011.

Theolia: 8.40% to 1.42 euros

The group announced Wednesday it had signed an MoU with the National Electricity Morocco (ONE) to develop and implement an entire fleet of 300 megawatts (MW) in Tetouan near Tangier.

Lagardère: 0.51% to 28.52 euros

The group has completed the bulk of the sale of its international magazine to Hearst, which should have a negative impact of EUR 35 million on operating profit of Lagardere Media for 2011.These disposals will impact is the objective announced in March a growth of around 10% of its 2011 operating profit at constant exchange media, which included the magazine internationally.

Neopost: -1.17% to 61.49 euros

The group announced an increase in its turnover in the first quarter despite difficult conditions in Europe and confirmed its targets for 2011.

Belvedere: -1.39% to 61.50 euros

The CEO challenge the fines against him required by the representative of the college's Financial Markets Authority (AMF).

Bourbon and Atos Origin today hold their general meetings.

Unilever and Kraft share customer data

What common laundry between Skip, LU biscuits, liquid dishwashing Mir and Amora mustard? All these products are now part of the loyalty program "My Life in Colour", which just launched all the French subsidiaries of Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch behemoth of consumer products, and Kraft Foods, the giant of agribusiness.

By bringing together more than 60 brands in food, hygiene and beauty care of the house, the two companies will be able to reach 6 million French households. The issue is crucial for the industry. First, build powerful databases to improve knowledge of their end customers and do well against those distributors who have millions of contacts.On the other, consumers have with a direct and regular contact by mail and Internet-based information and discount coupons.

Loyalty programs launched in the 1990s lost momentum. Two years ago, Unilever took stock of its "To tell you the truth," launched in 1997 around thirty marks. The finding was unequivocal: it is increasingly difficult to emerge from the multitude of programs created by marks or competing groups as "Want more" Procter & Gamble, "Croquons life" Nestle or "Danone and you. " The attractiveness of "To tell you the truth," launched on the basis of a consumer magazine and enriched with a website in 2001, languished."Traffic growth was not enough, it lacked power," says Anne-Gabrielle Dangu, media and CRM Director of Unilever France.

In late 2009, the food group made the radical choice to sell his program to Publicis Groupe, responsible for finding other brands to strengthen it. However, Kraft Foods, which launched the program "suggestion box" for its LU biscuits bought from Danone in 2007, was seeking to launch a multi-brand. Publicis suggested the two groups together to create a common agenda. The pooling of their databases should reduce their costs while gaining attractiveness.

Nestle and Procter & Gamble align their data

The merger of Unilever and Kraft in the field of relationship marketing is a trend that is expected.Nestle and Procter & Gamble have already pooled their databases to send their respective print magazines in 3 million households. Each maintains its program for now, but both groups should soon announce a strengthening of their cooperation.

Will they go up to launch a single program? "You have to purchase a plate large enough to sustain a multi-program," said Viola Degas, CEO of OgilvyOne. The only approach to food no longer seems sufficient to capture the attention of consumers, already watered copiously on the Internet for revenue and cooking tips offered by sites like Marmiton.

The price of gasoline is still beating records

The weeks go by and look for drivers who can only see the rise of gasoline prices in their service stations. Last week, the price of a liter of unleaded 95 has thus reached 1.5492 euros on an average calculated by the Directorate General for Energy and Climate (DGEC) throughout the territory. The unleaded 95 and beat his own record of 1.5469 TTC, the previous week. For its part, the unleaded 98 also registered a record 1.5861 to 1.5849 against euro per liter euro the week ending April 29.

Only the diesel appears to decline. For the third consecutive week, its price fell to 1.3453 euros per liter on average, far from its high in May 2008 to 1.4541 euro.

Prices at the pump, however, vary greatly from one city to another.According to the website carbeo.com, some gas station attendants already impose price close to € 2 advanced by the boss of Total, Christophe de Margerie. This is particularly the case of two service stations in the 16th arrondissement of Paris and Lilac (enSeine-Saint-Denis), who sell a liter of unleaded 98 to the price of 1.89 euro.

Christine Lagarde is awaiting a report

Oil prices have tumbled in the markets, however, due to a fear on the strength of the U.S. economy. The price of a barrel of U.S. light crude for June deadline ended last Friday in decline on the New York Mercantile Exchange, to 97.18 dollars, down from 2.62 dollars. For the week, the WTI has lost 16.75 dollars or about 15%, its biggest weekly decline in percentage terms since the week to December 19, 2008 when prices fell by 26.8%.Expressed in dollars, fall is the highest since the ratings began on the Nymex in 1983.

The movement was identical to London where the price of Brent at the same maturity have finished Friday at 109.13 dollars a barrel (-1.51%). For the week, the price of Brent crude fell by 13.3% or 16.76 dollars a barrel, their currency depreciation in the sharpest ever recorded.

"The oil companies and distributors have pledged to pass immediately to the pump every drop of oil prices", said Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde on Monday."I asked the Directorate General for Consumer, Competition and Fraud to give me a report early next week and be extremely attentive to changing prices," she warned .

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The Livret A could reach 2.5% in August

Encouraging news for investors. After an increase from 1 February – he was then increased from 1.75% to 2% – the rate of the Livret A could rise again this summer. According to economist Cyril Blesson interviewed by the daily newspaper Les Echos on Friday, is expected to reach 2.25% or 2.5% to 1 August.

To make this forecast, the founder of Cahiers de l'Epargne based on the mathematical formula used to determine the remuneration of the booklet and is applied twice a year (February 1 and August 1). Furthermore the level of interest rates, this calculation takes into account the increase in prices. However, for several months, inflation is back and the pressure on energy prices would feed into the next month.

This likely further increase will certainly confirm the French interest in what remains their preferred placement.After a bit snubbed the Livret A in 2010, they have overwhelmingly chosen in early 2011 to place their savings payday loans in 1 hour. Between January and March, the booklet has attracted 7.38 billion euros, against only 5.58 billion euros for the full year 2010. This brings to 202.4 billion euros, the total of the Livret A. Meanwhile, life insurance, the other investment popular with families, should instead suffer from uncertainty that hovered on Taxation. Early this year, the collection fell by 11% compared to January 2010, to 11.8 billion euros.According to Cyril Blesson the decline throughout the year 2011 could reach 12%.

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Scholarships: NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse want to become world leader

Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext are in "advanced negotiations" for a merger. Both companies have warned in a statement that the outcome of the discussions was still open. Together they form the first stock exchange in the world, before the Hong Kong.

The new group would have a dual headquarters in Frankfurt and New York, and the merger would release 300 million annual savings, they said. Shareholders of Deutsche Boerse would be the majority, with 59% to 60% of the shares.Reto Francioni, head of Deutsche Börse, would be non-executive chairman, while Duncan Niederauer would be the operational head or at the same place as at NYSE Euronext.

Nicolas Rolland, a trader at Societe Generale, said that for Scholarships, "reach a sufficient size is a strategic aim of achieving economies of scale classics, but mainly to develop new services, facilitated by large volumes. This moves the harsh price competition, downward, to the service, more diverse and cash. "

A return to "normal"

In 2007, when NYSE and Euronext merged, traders were disappointed that they wanted to merge with Euronext Deutsche Boerse."If the two merged entities, the operators would take it as a return to normal," said Djillali Hacid, analyst XTB France.

This merger, there are more than three years, had inspired a Directive at European level in order to end the monopolies of the major exchanges. Since then, competition has set in, and NYSE Euronext has lost market share. "For NYSE Euronext, such a merger is justified by the desire to regain strength," says the expert.

Indeed, the platform Chi-X Europe, born after the EU directive, in 2010 became the second exchange in Europe behind the London Stock Exchange and NYSE Euronext relegating to third place. And in recent weeks, the big U.S. platform Bats Global Markets seeks to acquire Chi-X.Both parties are in exclusive negotiations and an announcement is expected later in the month of February.

In exchange, Deutsche Boerse gained 1.7% to 58.42 euros just before the trading halt that occurred on Wednesday afternoon, while NYSE Euronext clinching 11.66% at the Paris Bourse. About 18 hours, the NYSE Euronext shares have resumed trading at Nex6york: it fly off

"Historically, mergers do not create value for shareholders," warns Derek Lawless, director of France Worldspreads. "The example of marriage between Alcatel and Lucent is the most blatant. Must observe a high degree of distrust. In a difficult environment we seek opportunities to reduce costs, and sought a merger with a partner.Historically this kind of operation comes almost too late, "he said again.

The London Stock Exchange offers itself as Toronto

These discussions have no connection with the announcement that took place that day on the very next purchase of the Toronto Stock Exchange TMX by the London Stock Exchange. A transaction that will create the fourth World Stock Exchange, with 4100 billion shares traded per year.

Their merger will create the first global platform for trading companies specializing in natural resource extraction and energy production. Both exchanges intend to capitalize on the craze for global commodities.

The new entity will become world also tops the list of global equity groups by the number of listed companies.In terms of market value, the combined group, which has not yet given name, would rank seventh, with a value of about $ 7 billion.

Toronto and London are already places of choice for producers of raw materials, and joining forces, they hope to attract even more companies in this sector, explained their leaders, the American and French Tom Kloet Xavier Rollet, who will become president and CEO of the new group. They count and enjoy the fact that many mining companies, including Russia and Asia, seeking to go public to finance expansion of their activities, struggling to follow the explosive growth in demand for raw materials in emerging countries.

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Wall Street drops below the 12,000 points

Congress cools the financial markets. After opening slightly higher, breaking the 12,000 points mark, the U.S. stock markets operate in an uncoordinated manner. The Dow Jones lost 0.05% to 11,971.40 points, while the S & P 500 ahead 0.27% and the Nasdaq rose 0.55% to 2734.07 points. Tuesday, after changing course several times in the morning, the NYSE closing slightly lower.

The side indicators, investors will monitor including U.S. weekly oil stocks as well as new home sales for the month of December. After the close of Wall Street they will also review the press release of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the United States (Fed).

The Fed should decide no surprise to keep its arsenal of state support for the resumption of the U.S. economy.The leaders of the institution should certainly take stock repurchase program of additional U.S. Treasury bonds that the FOMC was launched in November. Considering the recent statements of several of them, the Committee should confirm that the Fed expects to have repurchased $ 600 billion of these bonds at the end of June. Considering the recent statements of several of them, the Committee should confirm that the Fed expects to have repurchased $ 600 billion of these bonds at the end of June.

Tuesday evening, held on policy speech said his State of the Union of Barack Obama. In his speech, Bush asked Congress to exercise fiscal innovation without abandoning efforts to reduce the deficit.

New burst results

On the foreign exchange market, the euro was changing the balance on Wednesday afternoon. By mid-afternoon in Paris, the euro bought 1.3681 dollars against 1.3682 dollars late Tuesday, after the dollar rose to 1.3722 in the morning, a new high since November 22 free online credit report.

The side of values, Wall Street investors expect another round of results. United Technologies, Xerox, Boeing, ConocoPhillips must indeed publish their results for the fourth quarter.Also note, the Macworld San Francisco grand annual gathering of fans of the U.S. computer group Apple to open its doors today and will run until January 29.

Yahoo!: -3.25% to $ 15.50

Always on the side of values, the U.S. internet group Yahoo! posted Tuesday a net profit doubled for both the year and for the fourth quarter, but with a turnover of patina, displayed down 2% for 2010 and still looks disappointing the first quarter. The annual net profit appears to 1.231 billion, while quarterly earnings totaled $ 312 million.The turnover 2010 was, however, slipped 2% to 6.324 billion dollars, with a particularly sharp fall in late: -12% to 1.525 billion dollars.

Boeing: -3.02% to 70.06 dollars

For its part, Airbus said Tuesday that the final report of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. aid to Boeing will demonstrate that its competitor has received substantial aid illegal and said that Europe could claiming $ 45 billion in compensation.

Juniper Networks: 7.02% to 37.27 dollars

The telecom equipment maker Juniper Networks has announced a profit of $ 190.2 million, slightly below expectations. The group's turnover is 1.19 billion dollars against 1.13 billion dollars expected by consensus.The operating margin was 24.5% against 24.1% in the third quarter.

Wal-Mart: 0.68% to 57.65 dollars

China has sentenced several distribution groups, including Wal-Mart fined for having lied about the price of their papers, said Wednesday the instance of economic planning.