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Moody's ready to break down the French banks

Three months after threatening to degrade the notes of BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, put under surveillance, the U.S. rating agency Moody's could increase to act shortly shortly. According to sources familiar with the matter, the decision was "imminent." "It comes at the end of three months to impose surveillance," says a source. The rating agency that had accompanied its implementation in June under the supervision of a negative outlook was indeed clear the way for a deterioration in credit ratings. One step for BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole and Societe Generale for two.And because of their exposure to Greece amounted to 4 billion euros to BNP Paribas, Société Générale 1.6 billion and 320 million to Crédit Agricole (June 2011 figures).

With the crisis of government debt in the euro area, to which Europeans are struggling to meet, investors are increasingly worried about the strength of the European banking system. The situation has become such an outflow of Greece in the euro area is openly discussed by senior politicians in Germany and the Netherlands. In exchange, banking stocks suffered a pounding in order. Since the beginning of the year, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale have lost between a "large" third and 60% of their value.On the first day of September, the losses of the three titles are respectively 17.45%, 22.33% and 27.69%.

Analysts relativize

Especially, a controversy arose in late August on the valuation of debt securities by certain Greek French banks. The IASB, the body responsible for setting international accounting standards, criticized some financial institutions are not named, have valued their claims on the Greek state in ways internal development rather than by using market prices. Which would have allowed banks to spend less severe impairment in their accounts. Even if they have applied a discount of 21% on government debt they have in their accounts, the three banks still have about six billion euros of Greek sovereign debt.

Some analysts relativize however, the scope of the surveillance on June 15 the three French banks by Moody's by saying that the other two rating agencies, Standard & Poor's (S & P) and Fitch attributed to them have lower grades. Crédit Agricole SA is now rated "Aa1" by Moody's, and BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are rated "Aa2". S & P assigned the notes 'AA' with a negative outlook to BNP and "A +" with stable outlook to Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale. Fitch is on his side to "AA-" with stable outlook to BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole, and "A +" with stable outlook for Societe Generale.

Banks back into the market turmoil

The respite will not last long: after a week of relative calm, the European banking sector has again stumbled in the stock market Monday. Britain's RBS, French Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank or German for example, have dropped out of respectively 12.32%, 8.64% and 7.53%. Even the champion of Frankfurt stock exchange now weighs less than half its book value! This increased tension is supplied from Friday with a new bundle of anxiety on the macroeconomic front. Investors fear that gives that summer debt crisis in Europe and the United States against a backdrop of slowing growth, worsening. The European foot-dragging on the Greek case illustrates the difficulty of political reassurance. Terms of private sector contribution in the second rescue of Greece, to be completed at the root end of August and early September, and still raises many questions.The debates are multiplying on the accounting treatment of such assistance, and the right level required for impairment of securities Greek, while the economy sinks further into crisis.

200 billion euros in recapitalization

Asked about the idea of ​​requiring banks assessment of sovereign debt in the market, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, Josef Ackermann, said Monday that "it was forcing an open door to say that many banks Europe would not survive. " Especially since the doubts about the ability of Italy to keep its austerity plan and that of France to absorb a succession of shocks without further tighten the screws are becoming more vivid.The CDS on the two countries, these insurance policies that protect a non-payment, Monday reached a record high.

Under these conditions, the crusade of the new Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, against the underfunding of the European banking sector is gaining credibility. According to the Financial Times, its equipment valued at 200 billion euros on equity gap for the entire industry. The chairman of BNP Paribas, Michel Pebereau, said Monday: "The stress tests in Europe (…) suggest that it is not so obvious that today the European banking system as a whole may need to be recapitalized.Some banks, no doubt. "Boss BPCE, and past president of the French Banking Federation (FBF), François Perol, said he did not think" that (statement of Christine Lagarde) was referring to French banks. "

On the other side of the Atlantic, the signals are no more reassuring. The disappointing U.S. employment published Friday that result in maintaining a high unemployment rate to 9.1%, have cast a chill on the market. The same day, Washington expressed its willingness to prosecute seventeen banks for selling its agencies refinancing, without the correct information, asset-backed mortgages, subprime. The legal battle casts a new threat to the sector.

The Cac 40 widening losses

The day after a session sharply higher on Wall Street and in Asia, the Paris market continued its rebound sharply on Tuesday after rising 2.2% Monday. At the opening, the benchmark index of the Paris Bourse was awarded 1.22%. But at midday, the CAC 40 is pressed into the red (-0.40% to 3141.62 points) with shortness of breath and banking stocks before the release of major U.S. indicators.

Meanwhile, the announcement in late morning, a confidence index of entrepreneurs and consumers in the euro area fell sharply in August may have contributed to this turnaround.Throughout the European Union, the confidence of business leaders and consumers has declined even more significantly, by 5 percentage points to 97.3 points, against 102.3 points in July.

The business sentiment index in the euro zone, published separately by Brussels, also fell for the sixth straight month to $ 0.07 against 0.44 points in July.

Yesterday on Wall Street indices ended the session up 2.2% for the Dow and the Nasdaq 3.3% driven by the consumption figures in the United States. Asian markets followed suit with their American counterparts. In Tokyo, the Nikkei was up 1.22% to 8959.75 points while unemployment is again on the rise for the second consecutive month in July and that retail sales fell by 0.3% from June

The correct orientation of financial markets has boosted oil prices.Asian markets, the Nymex is trading at 87.49 dollars, he finished in 87.27 dollars in New York, up $ 1.90 from Friday. Brent crude traded him to 112.17 dollars.

On the front of the foreign exchange market, the euro fell slightly against the dollar, below $ 1.45, to 1.4392 dollar.

Fears about the health of banks

The day before, call to order by Christine Lagarde bound for European banks has prompted European leaders to defend the institutions of the old continent. "European banks are much better capitalized today than they were a year ago. This was confirmed by stress tests conducted in July, "assured the Commissioner of Economic Affairs Olli Rehn.

But on Tuesday, it was the turn of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) to throw fuel on the fire.The IASB believes that the provisions made by banks and European insurers about their exposure to Greek debt have been dumped, reports the Financial Times. According to the newspaper, BNP Paribas and CNP Assurances are particularly concerned by this risk. BNP Paribas was down 0.45% in mid-session at 34.24 euros and CNP Assurances does not earn more than 0.20% to 12.35 euros.

When asked, BNP Paribas said that it had "pre-funded its exposure to Greece in full agreement with its auditors and the competent authorities, according to the plan drawn up by the Union on July 21" to help Greece, according to a spokesman .The bank had said on August 2 had provisioned 534 million euros to compensate for lost value of Greek bonds.

For its part, the CNP said it was "in line with the agreement of July 21," which provided the threshold of 21%, "validated by our listeners no teletrack payday loan."

Also Tuesday, the president of MEDEF, Laurence Parisot, in turn criticized the words of Christine Lagarde, saying his statement "incomprehensible. European banks are strong. And for French banks, we must bear in mind that we have banks among the strongest in the world, "said the boss of bosses of Europe 1.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also generally lowered its economic growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012, leaving unchanged the forecast of Germany for the current year.

Still on macroeconomic indicators will be out today. Before trading, the markets did not take umbrage at the publication of a fall, but strong early sales of new homes in the second quarter in France.

Are also expected in mid-day figures for business failures.

Overseas, the index of consumer confidence, the housing (Case-Shiller) and the minutes of the last Fed meeting will also facilitate the session.

Arcelor-Mittal is growing in Australia

On the corporate side, Arcelor-Mittal (0.45% to 14.41 euros) is about to take control of Australia's Macarthur, world's largest producer of pulverized coal, in association with the American Peabody Energy . The tender offer made by the European steel amounts to 5.16 billion dollars.Macarthur's management finally yielded to the new offer revised upwards by the Arcelor-Peobody tandem: it is 16 Australian dollars (11.8 euros) per share, against A $ 15.50 earlier.

The semi-annual publications are now many, especially among heavyweights rating. Note that the Y real, Havas, Bouygues, Colas, Vinci, Bollore, NRJ Group and Devoteam detail their half-year after the market closes.

In addition, Ipsen (8.62% to 24.05 euros) announced revenues up 5.3% in the first half.He also announced an upward adjustment of its sales forecast for 2011 in favor of a less pronounced decline than expected sales in general practice.

Hermès International climbed 1.86% to 263.35 euros before preparing to publiecation on Wednesday, excellent interim results, widely anticipated by the market after the increase last month by the group's growth forecasts sales and profitability. From January to June, sales of luxury brand famous for its bags and silk scarves were up 22% to EUR 1.3 billion, more than expected by analysts, according to data released in July .

The French shipowner CMA-CGM said that 2011 should be "a good year" for the group, claiming to have already funded the bulk of its investments for 2011 and 2012.The company said to have $ 1.7 billion (1.17 billion euros) in cash at the end of June, July and have paid $ 550 million bond line, while press reports evoked ago few weeks of possible cash flow problems.

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Bank: call to order de Lagarde

Declarations of Christine Lagarde at the Jackson Hole conference in the U.S. have caused confusion. Concerned about the deteriorating global economy, the executive director of the International Monetary Fund said before the central bankers that European banks' need urgent recapitalization. " The former economy minister added: "This is the key to cut the chain of contagion."

Thus, for the IMF, "the most efficient would be a substantial recapitalization mandatory European banks with private funds in the first place but also of public funds if necessary." Christine Lagarde has called for research by the policies of a common vision for the future of the continent.

But the executive director of the IMF gave no indication about how to get there.Thus, Sebastian Bartholomew, credit analyst for Louis Capital Markets believes that the statements of Christine Lagarde is "a call to order IMF but do not provide concrete solutions." The specialist also wondered what private funds would be inclined to give money to banks, "who wants to bring money to the banks unless the States?" Support from private funds, wanted by the former tenant Bercy seems to be excluded.

Regulators want details

Thus, fearing that such a disadvantage about the banking sector already affected by the stroke of tobacco stock this summer, some regulators would consider asking the IMF chief to clarify his remarks, reports the Financial Times.Indeed, while Europe is mobilizing to try to reassure investors on the health of major institutions of the old continent, reports Christine Lagarde could undermine their efforts credit reports free. The stress tests were particularly aimed at reassuring the financial community. French Banking Federation (FBF) was also stressed that French banks "have passed the stress tests in July European and ACP, the national supervisor, performs regular checks to ensure the smooth operation of banks' .

As such, the FBF reiterated this morning that the French system has full confidence. The Federation reiterated, like what she wrote on August 19, that 'capital levels are well above regulatory requirements and programs for refinancing in the medium and long term are conducted under conditions quite satisfactory. "

And the banks themselves have reiterated they do not need to raise new money. In early August, to mark the publication of its results, Societe Generale has reiterated that it has strengthened its financial strength, and for BNP Paribas. August 25, Crédit Agricole has also sought to reassure. The bank, whose accounts the second quarter suffered a heavy burden to Greece, said it had to end in July of more than 120 billion of liquid reserves immediately available. Jean-Paul Chifflet, general manager of the bank, had also told the BBC: "We have no difficulty in funding us."

In exchange, banking stocks are holding up well CAC40.Credit Agricole advance of 1.1%, 1.3% BNP Paribas, Natixis and Societe Generale 1.7% against an increase of 1.3% for the CAC 40.

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Xavier Bertrand: "There is no question of fatalism"

LE FIGARO – The decline in unemployment in the early years seems to have forgotten. Are you discouraged by the new bad number?

Xavier Bertrand – Unfortunately, it is in the same line as the previous two months. Not surprisingly, with growth at 0%, not to mention that July is traditionally bad (9 increases in the last 11 years). But this does not detract from my belief that unemployment will go back down. Social plans are declining. Redundancies do not go back. The acting, which is always a precursor, is good. Job creation is strong even though they are largely absorbed by the increase in the labor force. And new measures we have taken in recent months, including learning, will begin to bear fruit. Nadine Morano, we hope to be many more such apprentices in September.There is no question of fatalism.

Where are we on assisted contracts?

On assisted contracts, CAE 222 435 (non-profit sector) were signed in late July, there are still 200,000 to be filled by the end of the year next CIE (businesses) there are still 34,000 of the 62,000 expected this year. Many assisted contracts co-funded by the departments will also be released in the second half. I also expect a significant commitment of councils and they play the game totally! Gard, where I was Friday, has proposed assisted contracts to 2.1% of recipients of RSA, it increased to 10%, which is our national goal, it would make 1500 people out of unemployment! Or it would cost the department 411 euros per month, against 467 for the current RSA.

Employment center director must change and adopt a more decentralized operation no later than the end of the year.Should speed things up?

We can not wait until the end of the year. Each agency will have a "drawing rights" on training, will be delegated more funding, allowing it to be much more responsive. The administrative part will be lighter with fewer indicators to inform. I remember the beginning of September the social partners and all those involved for me they confirm their agreement for the implementation of this new roadmap.

You loaded earlier in the year the sub-prefects to ensure the "connection" between job seekers and business leaders who, in the same area, have difficulty recruiting. This gives does it work?

Where there is a total momentum, the results are undeniable, even if it is too early to give figures.This coordination also involves the activation of the "local public service employment" in a pool which includes employment center, local missions, houses of employment, communities, business leaders … It's not necessarily spectacular, but it's effective. I meet again all the sub-prefects of France in September to set up action plans in each employment area, and next week I will hold a video conference with regional directors of employment center and the regional prefects quick cash.

A new device, providing better compensation and enhanced monitoring to retrenched, will be in effect on September 1. But it is the purpose of fixed term and temporary employment that increase.Is it necessary to invent devices for these cases?

We will be attentive to the suggestions of the social partners, the Prime Minister receives these days.

The budget for the job will he planed, given the savings measures announced Wednesday by François Fillon?

Tradeoffs are made by the president and the prime minister: he will be fully preserved in 2011 as in 2012.

Is it time to reduce the Employer contribution rebates on overtime, which amounts to increasing labor costs?

For the employer, the trigger, it is not the exemptions is the fact of having more work. And I remember that employee side, the logic of buying power is fully preserved, the changes will not remove one euro cent for employees in overtime.

The tax on very high incomes will be 3%, from 500,000 euros. The government will leave there to tighten the criteria, as part of the majority want?

Parliament will have to discuss, this is normal. Simply ask the question shows that the principle of this tax, which I defended from the beginning, is now widely accepted. The demand for justice is understood by all. For the same reason, I support the approximation of taxes on labor and heritage announcements Wednesday also go in this direction.

The complementary health are likely to raise their rates after being taxed more than one billion additional …

Nothing have to. A number of them are private companies that show significant benefits and therefore have room to maneuver.It is indeed a tax on insurance contracts, not the insured, in contrast to an increase in user fees such that we did not want.

The anti-deficit plan provides ten times the revenue increases that additional savings. Can we make more efforts in that direction?

We remove the tax loopholes. There is no general increase in taxes, as advocated by the Socialists and the way they do it is a real brand in the local communities they lead. This would be a policy that would break the prospects for growth. But it's true, France is a country with a high level of public spending and taxes. Pension reform, the non-replacement of an official two … reduce public spending.I am confident it will go much further in the coming years, do not hesitate to come back some expenses by asking systematically question: what people really value for money? The efficacy and justice must be the two criteria of the expense.

The Standard & Poor's removed the "AAA" rating from the U.S.

The rating agency Standard and Poor's lowered the rating Friday on the public debt of the United States, deprived of their "AAA" for the first time in their history. S & P said in a statement it had lowered the rating a notch, the best possible, to bring it to 'AA +'. It also downgraded the outlook to "negative", which means that Standard and Poor's believes that the next time the note will change, it is to be lowered again. The United States were rated "AAA" by S & P since the creation of this agency in 1941. They remain in the other two major agencies, Moody's Dean (since 1917) and Fitch Ratings.

Standard and Poor's, which had warned in April that it was considering lowering, justified its decision with "political risks" to see the country taking insufficient measures against its budget deficit.For her, the political debate on these issues is not up to the problems caused by a debt of more than 14,500 billion. "The plan for balancing the budget on which Congress and the Executive have recently agreed is insufficient compared to what, in our view, would be needed to stabilize the dynamics in the medium term public debt" said S & P, citing the law known as "control the budget" passed Tuesday.

"The last victim of the failure of President Obama"

John Chambers, President of the Evaluation Committee of S & P, said Friday on CNN that Washington could have prevented the lowering of the notes within the ceiling earlier. He said the responsibilities were shared by the Administration and Obama, but also "the previous administration." The first political reaction in Washington have shown blocking pointed to by S & P.Mitt Romney, candidate for the Republican primary, has called the reduction of "latest victim of the failure of Obama on the economy." The Senate Democratic leader, Harry Reid, has instead called for "a balanced approach to deficit reduction," with spending cuts but also increases targeted taxes, it rejected the Republicans, under pressure ultra-conservative "tea parties", when discussing the debt.

For its part, the U.S. government has accused S & P based its decision on serious errors in calculations payday loan. "An appraisal contains an error of 2000 billion dollars speaks for itself," said the press spokesman of the Department of the Treasury. U.S. media said the government had severely challenged the projections of analysts of the agency after reviewing the findings of S & P. In vain."We take our responsibilities very seriously, and if at the end of our analysis, the commission concludes that a note is not to where it should be, it is our duty to make this decision" justified Reuters responsible for rating sovereign debt within the S & P, David Beers.

China demands U.S. action

The loss of this seal of excellence is expected brutal impact on the financial markets, difficult to imagine right now. The U.S. Treasury is an undisputed reference: a standard cost of money, an instrument normally used as "collateral" (guarantee) in a variety of transactions, and a refuge for investors in troubled times. "Uncertainty about the effects on the market is high," said recently the investment bank Goldman Sachs, exploring the potential consequences.The lowering of this note should indeed force investors to reassess risk widespread.

The S & P announcement came as the markets had closed for the weekend, but initial reactions are mixed from Asia. The Japan, the second holder of U.S. debt world, assured that his confidence in the U.S. Treasury and its strategy of purchasing these bonds were unchanged. But China, by far the world's largest creditor United States, found that she had "every right now to require the United States to address their structural problems of debt."

The United States had their public finances sealed by the harsh recession that crossed their economy from late 2007 to mid-2009. Since then, economic growth has returned, but they are not able to restore the health of their public finances.According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, they should acknowledge this year, with about 9% of GDP, the highest budget deficit of the G20 countries, except Japan. It is sixteen countries rated "AAA" by Standard and Poor's, four of the G7: Germany, Canada, France and Great Britain.

(With AFP and Reuters)

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Crisis in the euro area: what risk for your actions?

Equity markets continue to remain under pressure as they consider the problem of public finances in the euro area will not be solved for the long term. The public finance crisis is dangerous for shareholders? Expert answers.

Alain Bokobza, Societe Generale, "Yes, but the leaders of the euro area are working to limit damage to the holders of the assets of the peripheral countries. We do not expect heart of contagion to countries in the euro area if credible policies to restore the overall balance in the long term public are in place. Spain seems to us on track, which should help the Spanish index. "

Patrick Moonen, ING Investment managers: "A default risk uncontrolled in Greece would be very detrimental to shareholders.The stock market has not taken a negative outcome for Greece or further deterioration of public finances of the other peripheral countries. We see no quick fix and the level of uncertainty is very high, but time is a key that would recapitalize the banking sector and other peripheral countries to stand out from Greece in a positive way. This is necessary to limit the contagion. In short, we expect that governments can save time by delaying tactics. "

Pierre Sabatier, PrimeView "Yes, and it has only just begun. Historically, we find that growth slows sharply when the public debt ratio exceeds 90% of GDP.This will happen in many countries in the coming years (due to the continued deleveraging private is far from finished), leading to sluggish growth in most industrialized countries. This environment will eventually be negative for earnings growth, which is a function of GDP growth and inflation, and consequently to the equity markets. "

Wilfrid Pham, Natixis AM: "The crisis of public finances can be potentially dangerous for the banks if not handled properly by the institutions in charge of this problem problématique.Le liquidity crisis and confidence between financial institutions could be topical.Also, global economic growth could be negatively affectée.Les equity markets have a habit of reacting rather negatively to these events. "

Ginguene Olivier, Pictet Asset Management "course, but this risk seems already built into prices depressed the shares. This is especially for holders of debt (bonds) that this risk seems more and more dangerous now. Preferred shares of large non-financial corporations, less sensitive to local conditions (higher taxes, deficit reduction, regulations, slow growth …) and more exposed to international markets. "

Philippe Mimran, UFG-LFP: "Arguably, the public finance crisis is dangerous for shareholders. It stands at the end of fiscal restraint and thus slow growth. In addition, short term, the impact of market volatility.Finally, the financial sector is particularly undermined by the risks of insolvency of the States. "

Alexandre HEZEZ, Convictions AM: "It is illusory to think that the fiscal crisis will not affect businesses. The rationalization of fiscal policy is paradoxically a very good sign for long-term growth, so for equities. Consumption depends on expected future income rather than current income. This means that any measure that will give confidence in the sustainability of the health system and pension system will be good for confidence, so good for drinking so therefore the companies for shareholders … "

Francois Chevallier, Leonardo Bank: "Yes, but the damage is probably done for the shares in favor of safe havens such as gold, stone, the Swiss franc no faxing pay day loans.The drift of public finances and State debts would be the main explanation for the extraordinarily high level of risk premiums and historically low earnings multiples. "

Matthew Grouès, Lazard Frères Gestion, "Support for peripheral countries will probably continue for some time. A fault is a very unlikely scenario. The governments of developed countries must reduce their deficits and have begun to do so. As for the impact for shareholders, depending on the method: for the moment of corporate taxation has been little hard compared to other tax and spending cuts. "

Jean-Louis Mourier, Aurel-BGC: "Not directly in the short term.It is however an overall risk that affects more clearly the banks but is likely to lead to a tightening of global financial close to what was observed following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (freezes interbank markets and bond, blocking the distribution of bank loans, negative wealth effects …) "

Nuno Teixeira, Schroders France: "Governments Greek, Portuguese and Spanish, in spite of social protest, have recently confirmed their determination to control the situation of public finances. The first two were given the means to fulfill the conditions required by the EU and the IMF to substantial assistance to enable them to meet their liquidity needs more immediate.While the problems are not resolved in the medium term, but we are heading towards voluntary efforts refinancing from the European banks, which are expected to find a more permanent solution to debt problems. "

Catherine Garrigues, Allianz GI Investments Europe: "There is no major risk to shareholders who invested in international companies non-financial, unless they have strong activity in Greece, Spain or Portugal. Companies in these countries are experiencing rising spreads and is therefore difficult to find financing at reasonable rates. "

Antoine de Salins, Groupama Asset Management: "The answer is yes in any case for investment in developed countries: the crisis feeds market volatility who do not like uncertainty, especially those that attach to the assets deemed safe … ..It also weighs so heavy on the valuation of banks changing just like those of the debts of the peripheral countries. "

Bertrand Lamielle, B * capital: "The subject deserves full attention granted to him but is now analyzed in terms risk only. But a stock market perspective, the financial sector is capable of a strong rebound when the market considers that the solutions offer the senses. "

Frédéric Jamet, State Street: "The fiscal crisis will affect primarily government bonds (in case of default or restructuring), then only the shareholders, primarily in the financial sector and other sectors.This impact is already in stock prices. "

Mauro Ratto, Pioneer Investments: "The shareholders of the CAC 40 will be affected, because banks represent a significant share of the market capitalization totale.Ceux holding U.S. securities will not. U.S. companies are not dependent on this region, and generate profits in other areas. "

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Life Insurance: Senators returned to the charge

The Senate Finance Committee examined this morning the draft budget law easing the ISF and eliminating the tax shield. She returned to the load on the taxation of life insurance: it adopted an amendment under 20% to 25% tax rate on life insurance in case of death of the subscriber for contracts over 902 838 euros. At the Assembly meeting, members had rejected such an increase, however, given by the ratio of UMP budget Gilles Carrez. It is true that the government does not want it affects life insurance. The Senate should confirm or disprove their choice in plenary session.

The Senate Finance Committee is also back on provisions passed by the Assembly, on the grounds that increasing the tax loopholes.It has reduced the ceiling for overseas investment in social housing to its original level (36 000 euros or 13% of income, the Assembly has increased to EUR 40 000 or 15% of income). It deleted a niche created by the Assembly, which established a tax reduction of 50% for subscription in a local investment funds in overseas.

Moreover, senators of the Finance Committee decided that the ban on paying in cash purchases of metals come into force on 1 January 2012, not June 30, 2012. On another subject, she reinstated the Google tax, abolished by the Assembly.

The chances of Christine Lagarde at the IMF confirms

Christine Lagarde is likely to succeed Dominique Strauss-Kahn to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In any case, the scenario that emerges, as the Japanese business daily Nikkei, citing sources close to the international finance on Wall Street. The newspaper said the French Minister of Economy, the only officially declared candidate with the Mexican Agustin Carstens, get the support of the United States and Japan, the first two countries of the organization by number of votes. Also according to the Japanese daily, this support would be provided by Washington and Tokyo from June 10, the official date of filing of nominations.

No reaction from Tokyo at the moment on these assumptions, the finance minister Noda Yoshikiko having limited to clarify that the new IMF chief should be chosen through an open, transparent and based on merit.

Priority to emerging

These signals confirm a nomination well under way for Christine Lagarde. But out of interest, no premature triumphalism. The French minister continues his world tour to defend his candidacy and try to answer the demands of emerging countries in search of better representation.

These are also priority figure in his travels. After being in Brazil May 30, she will visit India on Tuesday, then in China. In total, four or five days of campaigning in Asia "" listen to the voice of these countries on the IMF and possibly take into account their recommendations into its program, "according to his entourage. Finally on June 10, the Minister will travel to Lisbon to meet his African counterparts.

In its international campaign, Christine Lagarde also can probably count on strong support from Germany.Monday's visit of Angela Merkel in Washington to discuss with Barack Obama instead of the IMF is emerging from this point of view of good omen. It could allow the German chancellor to convince Washington, if not already done so, whether to support the European candidate.

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The Paris Bourse pauses

The CAC 40 will not stack with a seventh consecutive month of meeting this Friday. Or so that presage early trade. At the opening, the benchmark index in Paris begins with a decline of 0.27% to 4093.61 points.

The Frankfurt Stock Exchange is in equilibrium at 7475.22 points. In London, the markets are closed. The wedding day princely between William and Kate was indeed decreed holiday.

Investors follow the footsteps of Asian markets, Tokyo without (closed due to holiday) were very hesitant after the announcement of a U.S. growth slowed in the first quarter. In Paris as in Wall Street, many traders were yesterday conceded that the new had yet been burdened by other negative indicators.

Decline in German retail sales

For this last day of the week, risk-taking should be smaller.In addition to the marriage, the eyes will be on the expected flurry of statistics. In France, the producer price of French industry continued in March for the sixth straight month of sharp increase their movement, spurred by soaring oil prices, Insee said Friday. The increase is 0.9% from the previous month, after +0.8% in February

German retail sales fell unexpectedly in March in Germany, as consumers bought fewer groceries on the shelves and textiles in a month where inflation has exceeded 2%.

In the euro area, unemployment is on the agenda.

Then the United States, the festivities start with the incomes and household spending in February (14.30) and the Chicago PMI for April (15.45) and the index of consumer sentiment this month ( 3:55 p.m.).

Side currency, the euro remains strong against the dollar at 1.4847 dollar.Oil markets appear, they, down, worried about the state of the U.S. economy. A barrel of light sweet crude for June delivery lost 45 cents to 112.41 dollars and that of Brent North Sea also June delivery yielded 17 cents to 124.85 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

News companies should also serve markets:

Total: -0.31% to 42.87 euros

The tanker jeudila announced takeover of U.S. manufacturer SunPower solar panels in view of creating the "world leader in solar energy."The group also released Friday the results up in the first quarter, thanks in particular to the sharp rise in prices of oil and gas, but production was down by 2.3% mainly because of the Libyan crisis.

Accor: -0.46% to 30.11 euros

The group announced Friday to study a possible sale of the catering Lenôtre, as part of his refocusing on the only hotel trades.

GDF Suez: -0.27% to 27.69 euros

The group announced the launch of a new subsidiary trading on energy markets with the ambition to compete with industry heavyweights such as Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and E. ON EDF Trading

Legrand: -0.05% to 30.40 euros

The group announced the acquisition of SMS, a leading Brazilian electric inverters, in order to strengthen its position in a growing market.

Ingenico: 0.53% to 33.27 euros

The group denied on Thursday evening news reports that he would be interested in the activities of online payment from Hi Media.

Gifi: 4.23% to EUR 64

Ginestet family announced Thursday its intention to launch a simplified tender offer for the shares Gifi delist the distributor of first prizes.

Vinci confirms its objectives

Saint-Gobain: -0.56% to 46.89 euros

The group confirmed its 2011 targets after a first quarter marked by an acceleration of growth in its business thanks to the contribution of most geographic areas where it is present and better weather.

Vinci: 1.09% to 45.25 euros

The group also confirmed its full-year after a turnover up 25.4% in the first quarter, above market expectations, driven by acquisitions last year and its activities in the construction and energy.

Compagnie des Alpes: stable at 22.74 euros

The group reported Thursday a turnover up 5.8% for its first semester of the 2010-2011 fiscal year to March after a winter characterized by early snowfall.

Group Crit: 1.47% to 23.45 euros

The group again expressed confidence Thursday for earnings growth in 2011 after having posted a revenue increase of nearly 22% in the first quarter.

Saft: -2.54% to 30.47 euros

The group confirmed on Thursday its forecast for revenue and earnings for 2011 after releasing first quarter sales up 11%.

Bull: -4.91% to 4.45 euros

The group confirmed Thursday that the goals the group has set medium term, after realizing the first-quarter sales were down 0.9% to 270.8 million euros.The group also said that orders had risen to 313.8 million euros in Q1.

Fimalac: 1.23% to 29.66 euros

The group reported Thursday after the closing sales up 21.1% to 341.5 million euros thanks to the rise of nearly 17% of revenue from its credit rating agency Fitch.

Renault (-0.23% to 40.58 euros) will hold a meeting this Friday to 15 hours.

Belvedere will unveil its fourth quarter results, EDF Energies Nouvelles in sales the first quarter and Trigano its second quarter results.