What do you think of austerity plans adopted in France, Great Britain and Germany? Are they sufficient?
Targets chosen are appropriate. When started in 2011, for the most part, they reflect the forecast growth will remain weak in coming months. The credibility of the measures announced will have a positive impact on the economy over the medium term. It will also look favorably on the interest rate will be long term downward trend and therefore promote growth.
These plans are they in line with OECD recommendations?
Overall, yes. In all three countries, governments have chosen to cut public spending to reduce deficits, which is a good thing.The experience of OECD countries shows that fiscal consolidation based on expenditure reduction is generally more efficient and more sustainable than those based on a tax increase. Yes, we need to use the weapon of taxation, but if it has a limited impact on growth. In this case, we must emphasize the taxes related to climate change – CO2 tax – or indirect taxes on consumption – VAT – the property rather than income households or businesses.
In Britain, the specific measures such as increases in VAT or tax on capital gains in the right direction.
In France, the pension reform is essential, we must reverse the age of retirement at least 62 years because many European countries are already beyond this level.It is also important to address the budgetary rules to strengthen the credibility, setting goals of stabilization. As has just done in Germany out in the Constitution a ceiling for public debt by 2016 paydayloan.
The OECD has launched Wednesday a new warning on unemployment will remain high and the risk of falling into structural unemployment. What do you think, in this context, cuts aid to employment, in particular France and Germany?
Our position is that we must change the orientation of employment policies, by investing more in the long term. Countries should abandon the measures adopted early in the crisis to keep costs the employees in their jobs, promoting the reduction of working hours to avoid layoffs.Policies should be more targeted for career change into areas more vibrant and productive. This requires investment in training, education, innovation.
Yet France removes 16,000 teaching posts …
It may be more effective in education. But it is clear that there is not enough money to do everything! Times are difficult and involve choices. Must be cut, reduce deficits and debt while stimulating growth, promoting employment and education. This must remain a priority.
Is there a risk of falling into recession?
We maintain our forecast last month. The recovery will continue at different speeds, slower in Europe than elsewhere, but we see no risk of double dip recession.The real issue in the medium term is to find a good balance between sustainability of public finances and economic growth.
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Goldman Sachs has managed to earn 3.7 billion dollars in betting, starting in 2007, the collapse of the mortgage-market. In doing so, the giant Wall Street acted against the interest of some of its customers, which it sold securities that he knew "toxic". This is the conclusion, after months of investigation, the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations of the U.S. Senate.
Tuesday, during public hearings stretched on Capitol Hill, Lloyd Blankfein, the head of the giant Wall Street, has categorically denied these allegations."We do not speculate massively downward in the housing market and we certainly do not bet against our clients," he was forbidden under the spotlight, saying that even on the mortgage-market, Goldman Sachs has lost about $ 1.2 billion in 2007-2008.
"Nobody in the management of Goldman Sachs has never asked me to bet on a decline in the subprime market," added before skeptical senators, Joshua Birnbaum, the former head of structured products of the bank, also on the bench defendants.
Convinced otherwise, armed with emails and internal documents seized in the bank, the debonair Senator Carl Levin, glasses pavement at the end of his nose, led a determined assault Tuesday. But the chairman of the committee was confronted with a wall.He vainly tried to tell the past and present officials of Goldman Sachs called before him (including one French employee), how could they believe in the quality of debt issued by mortgage lenders whose reputation was terrible. Receivables classified as "business of shit" in an email exchange between two bank officials. "How many of these" affairs of shit "did you sell to your customers? asked, exasperated, Senator Levin. You've sold hundreds of millions. "
Bankers Daniel Sparks and Michael Swenson, impassive without being arrogant, but obviously confident of the merits of their point of view, seemed not to understand or what they asked or what they were charged.They also questioned the methods of calculating profits of Goldman Sachs selected by the committee.
Battle of Senate proceedings
According to Senator Levin, the investment bank has yet actually decided in late 2006 to a major cleanup of its accumulated risk on securities backed by the real estate markets whose collapse loomed. By discipline, to limit its risks and if possible in the hope of profiting from the trend, the bank had sold to investors and deliberately chosen for their credulity his titles too "toxic"."We have not been systematically and significantly" net short position "on derivatives of residential mortgages in 2007 and 2008," replied Lloyd Blankfein.
Meanwhile in the Senate floor, Democratic leaders and Republicans arguing over procedural votes before engaging in substantive debate on the reform of Wall Street. The Conservatives want by all means restrict the scope of Democrat Bill before it is submitted to a plenary debate in the room. A compromise is always likely, because both parties want to correct the excesses that precipitated the financial crisis.But the Republican minority wants to take his time, while Democrats want to take this case Goldman Sachs to prohibit such banks with access to the discount window the Fed to speculate on their own account.
The clouds are gathering over Goldman Sachs. After the announcement of a complaint by shareholders against the directors, the Wall Street Journal revealed on Saturday that five of them sold their shares after the bank had been informed that an investigation by the SEC, the U.S. stock Constable , was the establishment. They have sold their shares at a purchase price of $ 65.4 million (48.9 million euros).
The Wall Street Journal, officials have sold the shares in question are an attorney, two vice-presidents, a chief accountant and a member of the board of directors.
The sales took place between October 2009 and February 2010, the Wall Street Journal reported on its website, citing the company InsiderScore.com, which presents itself as an observatory of insider stock transactions.A few months ago, in July 2009, the SEC had informed the bank that it was considering legal action against them.
On April 16, the day the SEC announced it had filed a complaint for fraud against Goldman Sachs in the civil courts, as the Goldman Sachs lost 13% of its value on the NYSE. The fall had continued throughout the week.
To prove his good faith
The announcement comes as Goldman Sachs is preparing his hearing Tuesday before the Parliament. According to a document of 11 pages that she purchased the Washington Post, executives at Goldman Sachs who will testify alongside Fabrice Tourre want to demonstrate their good faith in this matter.
Before the Senate subcommittee investigation on the financial crisis, they will indicate that they do not know if housing prices would increase or decrease when the product under investigation, the Abacus, was sold. The document describes the debate that animated the leaders of investment banking in 2006 and 2007. As proof, the bank will provide the e-mails on the subject by the leaders.
Nuisance emails
Their testimony should however be undermined by embarrassing e-mails released by a Senate committee on Saturday. According to the messages exchanged, the bank would have otherwise benefited from the mortgage risk to pocket tens of millions of dollars.
In one of these messages, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, wrote: "We obviously have not escaped the bedlam of subprime mortgage.We lost money and then we have won more than we lost through our short position. In another mail, managers assess the consequences of failing grades assigned by rating agencies, subprime, "like we're going to make much money," wrote one of them. "Yes, we are well positioned," replies his colleague.
"Investment banks like Goldman Sachs did not just brokers, they were interested developers of risky and complex financial products that led to the outbreak of the crisis," says Carl Levin, chairman of the Sub-Commission Senate Permanent Investigation, which will face the leaders of the bank Tuesday.
Greek interest rates continue to climb. They achieve this Thursday morning the world record to 7.49% on bonds with 10 years more distant than ever from the benchmark, the German Bund. The rates at 2-year yields have exceeded long, touching 7.80%, suggesting the market concerns over the short term. The news from Athens did not contribute to calm markets, while the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) was to meet Thursday.
The cost of insurance on compulsory Greek (CDS, credit default swaps ") also jumped Thursday morning, also reaching record levels at more than 470 basis points, the credit information specialist CMA News. "The market moves very quickly," says Markit News on Twitter.
Greece is still contineur to borrow, said Thursday morning the Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou before Parliament.
Contamination
"The Greek problem begins to contaminate other peripheral markets such as Spain and Portugal, where the rates differ from the Bund," says Patrick Jacq, a strategist at BNP Paribas rate, which emphasizes that the volumes traded bonds Greek since Thursday morning are very low. "As regards Greece, the current movements are not yet dramatic macroeconomic consequence.Athens has enough to cope with higher current levels, which represent, in the case of bond issuance, an additional cost after all low in comparison to 10 billion euros to be in the coming weeks. "
After rumors of Greek opposition to the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in case of intervention, the Greek banks are finding themselves the center of attention. The Financial Times reports that in a recent face withdrawals totaling 10 billion euros since the beginning of the year. It does not take more than some analysts to fear a flight of capital.
Testing the limits
But the sudden movement on the debt market would also be Greek, or even primarily, due to investors forced to sell the Greek titles of their portfolio because of excessive volatility.Investors also want to test the rescue plan put together by the European Union, and know from what level of rates will be raised.
This is a matter of weeks, said Laurent Bilke, Europe economist at Nomura. He said the level of rates and especially the volatility in the market make it impossible to bond issue in the short term. Nothing, however, should occur before the regional elections in Germany in Westphalia on May 9, given the opposition of the public to any plan for Greece.
In this tense context, the ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, should be questioned about the crisis in Greek at the monthly press conference on Thursday."He should face questions on media reports that the ECB considers to be both too vague in terms of European aid and inappropriate intervention by the IMF," say economists at Societe Generale in a note.
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That's all smiles as Wolfgang Sch?uble, German Minister of Finance and his counterpart, Christine Lagarde, have been presented to the press after the German Council of Ministers which, for the first time a foreign minister was able to attend. After quarrels on the question of rescue of Greece and the tensions in the German economic model, the French Minister has stressed "the very friendly and warm hospitality" of his German colleagues. Asked about his remarks about the controversial German exports, Christine Lagarde has countered that she had wanted to "congratulate" the German competitiveness. "I am very careful not to criticize, because we must first put its own house," she smiled.
The Franco-German reconciliation was played around a tax on banks that Berlin wants to impose on the European and international level, with the support of Paris.The compulsory levy, calculated in terms of systemic risk – that is to say the risk of contagion that would expose their failure to the rest of the economy – should contribute to a fund to help financial institutions.
More than one billion euros
In Germany, such a tax would yield 1 to 1.2 billion euros per year. "A bill must be presented before the summer holidays, and may be adopted in the second half of the year," said Wolfgang Sch?uble No faxing pay day loans. For the Minister of Finance taxation of banks should remain "moderate" to avoid compromising their role in providing credit to the economy that is recovering from recession.
To avoid distortion of competition, Paris and Berlin argue like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a tax credit internationally.Christine Lagarde believes it is important to act "on a double angle: Prevention and Accountability" of financial institutions. But the tax credit mechanism must also "maintain a set level playing field between banks involved in international markets.
One issue still under discussion between the two countries: the destination of the tax. While Paris wants to assign to the state budget, the Germans are considering creating a special fund.The national rules will be required, although the mechanism is doomed to fall within a framework of European regulations or international.
"The Franco-German cooperation is narrow, it becomes more and more, and is based on trust," said the German finance minister, who will attend an upcoming French Cabinet, a priori, April 7.
The number one worldwide in street furniture, JC Decaux SA, published its 2009 results on Wednesday. Its sales are down 11.5% to 1.919 billion euros owing particularly to the fall of the advertising market. At constant scope and exchange rates, turnover is down 10.9%. Its net profit after minority interests fell to him, from 77.3% to 24.5 million due primarily to lower operating margin.
The group's operating margin has in fact declined from 28.7% to 392 million euros. It reduces the overall activities of the group: -24.8% in urban furniture, -32.6% in transport and 46.1% in display.Despite this sharp decline in operating margin and the impact of the acquisition of an additional 49.2% stake in Wall AG, JCDecaux has reduced its net debt at December 31, 2009 of 36.6 million euros to $ 670 million payday loans for bad credit .
A 2010 uncertain
For the year 2010, the Chief Executive and Co-CEO, Jean-Francois Decaux expects "organic growth of around 5% in first quarter 2010. Nevertheless, the market continues to be characterized by reduced visibility and the possibility that we are at the beginning of a sustained recovery in the advertising market remains uncertain. "He adds, the Supervisory Board will also not pay a dividend in respect of 2010. "
Contracts on U.S. stock indices suggest opening up Wall Street after three sessions of consecutive decline markets suffered the effect of uncertainty on profits in the banking sector related to Barack Obama's desire to limit risk taking . On Monday, the future of Dow Jones rose 0.63% to 10,214 points, future increases in the Standard & Poor's and Nasdaq are more timid: 0.08% for each.
The markets are relieved by the prospect of an upcoming confirmation by the U.S. Senate, the appointment of Ben Bernanke for a second term as president of the Federal Reserve.
On the macroeconomic front, if the meeting Monday is looking pretty quiet with only a statistical program, home sales in December – are expected to decline by 10% after rising 7.4% in November — week, it will be more responsible.In addition to meeting the Monetary Policy Council of the Fed, which must render its decision on rates Wednesday, investors will pay attention to economic data front, starting with the first estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter 2009, expected on Friday. A follow clues consumer confidence (Conference Board that Tuesday and the University of Michigan Friday) and sales of new homes in December, Wednesday.
As for currencies, the dollar lost ground against the euro, thus yielding 0.4% to 1.419 dollar against the euro, but gained 0.4% against the yen to 90.2 yen Business Card Holders