At Transport SNCF, talking about a non-event. Standard and Poor's downgraded by one notch Friday mark the long-term debt of the public company, which went from "AAA" – the highest possible – from "AA +", the prospect is stable. This means that S & P should not lower the rating further in the months to come.
The rating agency justifies this development, which will cost "several million" up interest rates to SNCF, by "the European rules that could make it more difficult in future for possible financial support" of government French in the public company as well as the opening to competition of rail passengers including his lucrative branch TGV."We believe that the most profitable activities of the station will be gradually exposed to competition," explains Standard & Poor's.
Since 1 January, the international passenger traffic is indeed officially liberalized in Europe, pending an opening to competition of domestic traffic, which is expected by 2015. For now, only Veolia announced its willingness to engage in this activity. A perspective that condemns the station eventually to lose market share.
"It remains a very good note"
The SNCF said it was prepared to such an announcement since the "perspective" was negative since September 2008. "It remains a very good score Guaranteed pay day loans.Many European states have not rated AA +, "said David Azema, deputy CEO in charge of finance and strategy at SNCF. The rating agency looks at the level of support that the station can expect from the state. The AAA rating corresponds to a quasi-automatic support in the event of default and AA + to support very highly probable. "
The company refuses to see in this a confirmation that the degradation status of public institution operating in industrial and commercial (Epic) is threatened. The S & P's decision certainly comes just after France decided to take legal action against the EU Commission, which considers the status of Epic necessarily implies an unlimited guarantee from the state, inconsistent with competition who sits in the sector.The rating agency noted that although skirmish between Paris and Brussels, but does not in itself a cause of degradation.
Conversely, the fact that the station has seen its rating lowered even though it is still an Epic could argue along the lines of the French arguments: clearly, the status of Epic does not mean the view of S & P that the situation Financial SNCF blends perfectly with that of the French state.
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Societe Generale, -6.6%, Credit Agricole, -4.9%, BNP Paribas, -4.6% … French banks weigh heavily on the Paris Bourse. The CAC 40 digs on Friday its losses (-1.8% to 3663 points to 11:00).
His European counterparts also suffer, while banking stocks enroll the largest declines, everywhere.
This reflects the renewed concern about the economic health in Europe, barely a week after the European plan negotiated the titanic last weekend. Further evidence of the uncertainty room, the euro broke the 1.25 dollar, which had not happened for 14 months. Gold coast near 1,240 dollars per ounce. Unheard-of.And oil is under $ 74 a barrel.
Banks underperforming in Europe
In Italy, while the FTSE-Eb hollow losses and was down 2.7% at 20,314 points at 10:30, the many bank stocks are at the bottom of the list: in order, loose UniBanca 4.6% to 8.1 euros, Mediobanca, 4.2% to 6.2 euros, Banco Popolare, 4% to 4.25 euros, UniCredit, 3.5% to 1.9 euro, and Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy's leading bank , yields 3.8% to 2.2 euros.
In Spain, same old story. The Ibex 35 largest market capitalizations falters 3.4% to 9639 points, and the banking sector heavyweights weigh box. Banco Santander, the second largest bank in Europe, falling 5% to 8.7 euros, and Banco Popular 4.75% to 4.7 euros.BBVA fold from 3% to 9.2 euros and 3.6% of Bankinter at 4.85 euros.
The Dax in Frankfurt, he, more resilient – the index of 30 companies the biggest German stock market down 0.45% at 6223 points. But again, it is Deutsche Bank, which is at the bottom, falling 2.16% to 49.8 euros and Commerzbank sells 2.1% to 106.8 euros.
In Belgium, KBC retrograde 3.4% to 31.5 euros and Dexia 3.25% to 3.7 euros in a market down 1.75% at 2490 points for the Bel 20. And in Switzerland, UBS depreciates 3.35% to 16.1 Swiss francs, financial group CS Group lost 3.1% to 47 Swiss francs.
The bank still frontline
Fears of a state unable to grow its fiscal power the risk of lowering its rating by a rating agency. But what are the financial institutions in a country with the largest of government securities in the portfolio.
Generally, capital financial institutions required to hold an asset also depends on the "rating" (the note) of the issuer of this title. If it deteriorates, the capital required to hold a state title will be more important.
As banks are exposed to the Spanish Treasury securities, profitability and solvency is lowered … hence the fall in stock.
Until now, the French have not felt the effects of policy, expenditure control has been conducted since 2007. For the general revision of public policies (RGPP) merely cut in the organization of the state, culminating with the non-replacement of staff on two retiring. After the controversy arose in Spring 2008 when Bercy had failed to dent the map "families," the executive had resigned himself to not touch, or marginally so, the expenses of intervention, ie policy social and wider economic (costs targeted exemptions, housing subsidies, RSA, assisted contracts …) and subsidies (crops, including transport).
Today, given the magnitude of deficits, the government changed its tune.In framing the letter he sent to all departments, Francois Fillon requires a 10% decline in value of intervention expenditure in the period 2011-2013. "To meet the target of freezing government spending-load of debt and pensions, we can not content ourselves to work on the only day operation of departments," said Baroin's entourage, the Minister Budget. In fact, operating expenses, such purchases, computers or real estate, representing less than 20 billion euros, while the operating expenses weigh 67 billion. The Prime Minister had already announced a cut of 10% within the past week payday loans. Measurement confirmed in the letter of framing.The extension of this plane to political intervention will save 6 billion more to the state by 2013.
Difficult choices
Remains now to determine exactly where the cuts will take place. Discussions between Bercy and the ministries that will lead to arbitrage mid-June, tight ahead, as the operating expenses are political. Social expenditures account for half wicket. For them, it will take "specific reforms," according to the letter of framing. Minister of Youth, Marc-Philippe Daubresse however assured Wednesday that the criteria for awarding the RIAA will not be changed. The other half of the expenditure is made up of sectoral aid.Transport (including rail network of France), agriculture, housing and culture are on the front line.
"More generally, all departments will freeze all spending," insists one at Bercy. Including, therefore, that of Defence, while the military budget law provided an increase in appropriations. But everything should be done to ensure that capital expenditure are chipped to a minimum.
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Laurence Parisot is now the only candidate to succeed himself at the head of MEDEF. Her rival, Sophie de Menthon, president of the employers' movement Ethic officially confirmed on Monday morning on BFM radio that throws in the towel, not wanting to go to court to assert his candidacy. The opponent has indeed encountered a stumbling block in his plan to run for President of the MEDEF: it accuses of late payment of contributions to Medef, and therefore can not seek the presidency as announced in Le Figaro April 13 last.
"I brought a check to pay my dues Medef late, said Sophie Menthon on BFM. They told me that before I can file my application, a preliminary investigation was necessary, and that the MEDEF could not decide on my application before JuneI will not lead employers in a legal battle. "
She believes however that the Board of Medef could meet quickly to endorse its regulation, and allow it to occur. It therefore deplored the reluctance of the employers' organization to focus on his record, leaving the way open for Laurence Parisot Guaranteed unsecured personal loan.
"It's a huge strategic mistake, says Sophie Menthon. Fear has won. There was no reason not to campaign.There's more dirty linen to wash the MEDEF. "She promises to give its program and its positions by means other than a campaign.
Thibault Lanxade "will not go"
Lanxade Thibault, head of the SME Aqoba, who had called for a "primary challengers last fall, has also withdrawn from the race for President of the MEDEF.
"I will not," he said on BFM Monday. Its share was "convinced" by Laurence Parisot as the debate that he dearly wanted to be actually carried out in case of re-election of outgoing President, and he should remain internal to the MEDEF.A rally that he claims to have made "without any pressure," believing that "the unit of employers is more than ever necessary" because of the crisis.
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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the U.S. stock market watchdog, said it had initiated proceedings for fraud against Goldman Sachs. The U.S. bank would have hid crucial facts about financial products affected by the subprime crisis. Fraud concerns the structuring of CDOs ("collateralized debt obligations) linked to subprime subprime.
Goldman Sachs action was immediately heavily impacted by this lawsuit.Around 17h35, the title fell by almost 14% to 160.3 dollars, bringing in its wake many financial stocks and the major world indices no fax pay day loans.
The SEC accused the bank and one of its vice-presidents, Fabrice Tourre to have misled investors by concealing important facts about the financial product concerned, while the U.S. housing market began to deteriorate.
At 15h GMT, Goldman Sachs yielded 9.7%. The KBW index of U.S. banking sector shrank at the same time 3.5% and the Stoxx European sector gave up 1.8%.
Wall Street widened its losses, the Standard & Poor's 500 yielding 1%.
Greek interest rates continue to climb. They achieve this Thursday morning the world record to 7.49% on bonds with 10 years more distant than ever from the benchmark, the German Bund. The rates at 2-year yields have exceeded long, touching 7.80%, suggesting the market concerns over the short term. The news from Athens did not contribute to calm markets, while the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) was to meet Thursday.
The cost of insurance on compulsory Greek (CDS, credit default swaps ") also jumped Thursday morning, also reaching record levels at more than 470 basis points, the credit information specialist CMA News. "The market moves very quickly," says Markit News on Twitter.
Greece is still contineur to borrow, said Thursday morning the Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou before Parliament.
Contamination
"The Greek problem begins to contaminate other peripheral markets such as Spain and Portugal, where the rates differ from the Bund," says Patrick Jacq, a strategist at BNP Paribas rate, which emphasizes that the volumes traded bonds Greek since Thursday morning are very low. "As regards Greece, the current movements are not yet dramatic macroeconomic consequence.Athens has enough to cope with higher current levels, which represent, in the case of bond issuance, an additional cost after all low in comparison to 10 billion euros to be in the coming weeks. "
After rumors of Greek opposition to the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in case of intervention, the Greek banks are finding themselves the center of attention. The Financial Times reports that in a recent face withdrawals totaling 10 billion euros since the beginning of the year. It does not take more than some analysts to fear a flight of capital.
Testing the limits
But the sudden movement on the debt market would also be Greek, or even primarily, due to investors forced to sell the Greek titles of their portfolio because of excessive volatility.Investors also want to test the rescue plan put together by the European Union, and know from what level of rates will be raised.
This is a matter of weeks, said Laurent Bilke, Europe economist at Nomura. He said the level of rates and especially the volatility in the market make it impossible to bond issue in the short term. Nothing, however, should occur before the regional elections in Germany in Westphalia on May 9, given the opposition of the public to any plan for Greece.
In this tense context, the ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, should be questioned about the crisis in Greek at the monthly press conference on Thursday."He should face questions on media reports that the ECB considers to be both too vague in terms of European aid and inappropriate intervention by the IMF," say economists at Societe Generale in a note.
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Havana Club Rum, owned by a joint venture owned by the Cuban government and Pernod-Ricard continues to turn heads. For over three years, Bacardi, owned by Cuban exiles, sells in the United States (where the real Havana Club is blocked because of U.S. embargo on Cuba) rum he also called Havana Club, but distilled Puerto Rico. Bacardi claims to have acquired the Havana Club brand in the family of its founder, whose property was nationalized after the Cuban revolution.
To prohibit the marketing copy of this Puerto Rican, Pernod-Ricard (who has also taken action regarding the ownership of the Havana Club trademark in the United States) argued in federal court for the District of Delaware fans rum could be misled about the origin of the product no teletrack payday loans.The court rejected the request of the French group, which has decided to appeal.
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The crisis in the eurozone, triggered by the financial woes of Greece, does not discourage candidates for membership. Instead, the accelerated deadlines. Next on the list, Estonia – a member of the European Union since 2004, like its Baltic neighbors – has become in January the 17th state to adopt the single currency when it emerges just one of the worst recessions its history. The small Baltic state announced Friday a fiscal deficit and public debt for 2009 well below the limits set by the European Union, respectively 1.7% and 7.2%. These exemplary figures are enough to make the envy of the major European countries even if they hide a decline in GDP of 14%.
With these results, the government intends to pass his entrance examination in May for publishing the report in Brussels in June and especially in the political verdict Finance Ministers."I do not see how they could refuse," said Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Paet. Most countries in the euro area far exceed the criteria, "Bill Thomson, OECD, grade:" One can always interpret in one way or another, especially on the sustainability of public finances. This is a political decision. "As such, the entry of Estonia into the OECD in late May it provides proof of credibility.
Yet a year ago, few experts would have bet on the country joining the single currency. After years of euphoria, the country has suffered serious setbacks: the collapse of the housing bubble, crash consumption, falling exports … and unemployment rising sharply, to 14%.
Unlike most countries that have tirelessly to revive the machine, the strategy here was quite different, based at the end of 2008 on the restrictions.Salaries down, the tax burden to rise, spending freeze … In 2009, savings accounted for 9.2 points of GDP. All without protest or strike extent. "If we compare the living standards of the time (prior to its independence from Russia in 1991) and today is the day and night. Wages have increased significantly between 2005 and 2008, justifies Rein Minka, vice president of the central bank. "Estonians do not complain, it is not in their nature. They have not forgotten the rationing of the Soviet era, reflects Stecken Antoine, a French importer of cosmetics no fax cash loans . They are also followers of the liberal model."There is a consensus policy, including public opinion, to deny recovery by the public debt," said Maris Lauri, chief economist at Swedbank.
Meanwhile, the newspaper in Tallinn is very difficult. In the image Meeli Lass, 39, 4 children, opera singer, who supports her family with a salary of 13000couronnes (around 830euros) – good pay, judge the young woman. Her husband was fired, and his eldest daughter graduated last nine months looking for a job. "It tightens belt: no output, no new clothes. This winter, heating costs have soared because of very severe cold, they make up half of our budget. We still have potatoes that my husband grows outside the city. "What can we expect Does the euro? "This will be worse, answered Meeli with fatalism. Prices will rise as in Slovenia.And the country loses a little more independence. "
Flexible economy
According to surveys, almost 55% of the population believe the contrary to the virtues of the euro. He starts by removing the specter of devaluation ruinous for the country. Despite the fixed exchange rate regime, many rumors have circulated at the height of the crisis, the contagion of a Latvian lat devalued. The government also relies on the euro to attract investors. "We have a diverse economy and a very flexible system of single tax to 21%. Moreover, if the company reinvests it pays no taxes, "argues the minister of Economy, Juhan Parts.
For Maris Lauri, the only apparent in the short term will come from exports, which have already started to leave. "Estonia has a large network of SMEs that can adapt and produce in small quantities," said the economist.The close cultural, linguistic and geographical Finland is an undeniable asset. In two hours by ferry from Helsinki to Estonia, which produces a third less expensive, has become the preferred subcontractor of Finland. It cultivates its differences with its two Baltic neighbors: Latvia leaded by a banking crisis and real estate and Lithuania dependent on markets in Germany and Poland, which has seen its market collapse.
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After Greece, Portugal? The degradation of the note by the rating agency Fitch on Wednesday placed the country under the Lusophone market attention. But nothing is to fear the worst: Portugal is not Greece, although the weakness of its economy worries for the future.
"Comparing Greece and Portugal is really too simplistic," wrote economists at the outset of IPC BNP Paribas in a note. Take note first of the country. Greece, with a "BBB +" is two categories below Portugal, rewarded for his share of "AA-". The degradation of the note Portuguese did not, moreover, resulted in a panic on the markets.Shortly after the announcement of Fitch, the cost of insurance on the Portuguese debt increased by only 5 points early Wednesday afternoon, with 139 points, according to Markit data.
If Portugal has a higher score, mostly because its debt is less severe than that of Greece. It should reach 90% of GDP in 2010, when the Athens peak at 123.3% of GDP, according to the OECD.
Reform and credibility
The best that Portugal has maintained its accounts in large part to the reforms already carried out social security and pensions. Result, expenditures related to aging, reaching 16% of Greek GDP between 2010 and 2060, will be limited in the case of Portugal to 2.9%, calculated the European Commission. "The impact of these reforms will be felt in the future, limiting the burden of an aging population," noted economists at BNP Paribas CIB.
Having made these reforms in Lisbon has guaranteed a much greater credibility than that of Greece. Apart from a National Statistics trusted, the country should not face great opposition to social reforms, as demonstrated by the fiscal consolidation undertaken between 2003 and 2007 are essentially the economists.
Concerns for growth
The Portuguese public finances so little to do with those of Greece. But the economic prospects are not rosy, however. "Our concern is growth," says a note Gilles Moec, economists at Deutsche Bank. "We believe that the likelihood of a return to budget deficits of 3% by 2013 (against 9.3% in 2009, Ed) is low."
The country's lack of competitiveness, exports depend mainly on its neighbor Spain, very bad shape.Especially, the level of indebtedness of households and businesses has reached alarming levels, thus jeopardizing any hope of quick recovery in domestic demand and investment. According to Eurostat, household debt represented in 2008, 105% of GDP, and the business 134%. Cons respectively 61% and 62% in Greece.
Toyota has done it again, but this time no further announcement has come offset concerns about her Prius. Not even net earnings for the third quarter … Toyota announced just before closing. In Tokyo, the Nikkei closed at a decline of 0.46%. The Nikkei lost 48.35 points to 10,355.98 and the broader TOPIX, yielded 4.59 points (-0.5%) to 911.09 points.
Crude oil prices continued their decline Thursday in electronic trading in Asia, amid declining grants and rising oil stocks in the United States, according to analysts. In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for March delivery retreated 17 cents to 76.81 dollars, while that of Brent North Sea at the same maturity, lost 30 cents to 75.62 dollars .The crude inventories rose in the U.S. for the third straight week, by 2.3 million barrels – indicating a falling demand – while the market expected them to remain unchanged payday loan lenders .
As Toyota (-3.53%) and its subsidiaries are also affected by the distrust: the supplier Denso has dropped 6.26% and assembler Toyota Auto Body 1.08%. The automaker announced it would recall over 180,000 vehicles in Great Britain to redress the problem of accelerator that has been forced to go along with millions of cars worldwide, Thursday reported several British newspapers , mentioning the mark.Immediately after closing, Toyota has nonetheless announced a net profit of 153 billion yen (1.16 billion) against a loss of 164.7 billion yen (1.25 billion euros) per annum passed over the same period the group has raised its forecast Better Canada under its fiscal year.