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Vivendi analysts attempt to assess the benefits

Vivendi was convicted Friday of having provided misleading information to shareholders as part of the class action initiated in 2002 in the United States. Upon initiation of the Paris stock market on Monday, the action the French media group has shown in red lantern: Vivendi lends more than 3.6% at midday, to 18.1 euros. Since the start of the trial, which opened October 5, 2009, the stock has skidded 15%.

Vivendi has said it would immediately seek the annulment of the verdict, considering many have grounds for appeal, including the admission of French shareholders in the process and "the wrong method of calculation of damages by the plaintiffs .

Precisely, the question of damages is central.Natixis Securities (review "step up" with a target price of 20.5 euros) says it is for now "impossible to know the benefits that will ultimately claimed. But we know the upper limit, namely 6.6 billion euros, according to plaintiffs' lawyers.

Uncertainty about the amount of compensation

The broker table for the moment on the assumption that 50% of claimants will be compensated – or they do not require as happens in 25 to 30% of cases for class-actions in the United States or that they are not eligible – the amount of damages would range around 3.3 billion euros creditreport .

CM-CIC, which is to "hold" while reducing its theoretical value from 21 to 20 euros, the risk is estimated at 2 billion euros.The broker said to have maintained a 20% discount in its estimates, "given the uncertainties posed by this litigation."

Uncertainties that will influence, and that will last. Vivendi said the prospective payment amounts would be "uncertain for an extended period yet undetermined.

According to CM-CIC, the final verdict on appeal, will not occur until 2011-2012. Vivendi should not provisioned hedge risk in its 2009 accounts.

Nevertheless, this verdict is limiting financial flexibility, Vivendi, at a time when external growth is central to its strategy.

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